Wyo Task Force - Nonres Comments!

[mallardsx2]

Hilltops musing on rolling NR points into other species would completely change the odds that are already becoming out of reach for us older hunters.

Its not just older hunters. Its guys like me too.. lol

I thought I would be in business when I got to 6 points for a LQ with a bow. Negative. If they allow the point to roll to another species I am really screwed.

I see everyone's viewpoints. Its not good for guys like me no matter how this goes.

 

[Hilltop]

I've stayed out of this discussion since I have nothing invested in WY other than antelope/deer/elk. I do buy the Super Tags, but that is a straight up raffle. Hilltops musing on rolling NR points into other species would completely change the odds that are already becoming out of reach for us older hunters. I started hunting in WY in 2009 when a GEN H deer tag took 0-1 pts., and a GEN elk tag was the same. I have been able to hunt for something every year by hunting one or the other (plus some CO hunts). It now takes 4+ for those tags, meaning at least a 5 year wait. Non-residents don't get a vote, and that is what it should be. That doesn't mean that I have to like it. Carry on.

I completely understand your point of view on this. It would be hard to predict but I'm guessing not a lot of people would roll their points. The reason I state that is the vast majority of big 5 point holders didn't look at the math when they began. They are blindly buying points for something that mathematically they wouldn't ever draw in the first place under current odds. Those that did roll their points would add to point creep though so your not wrong in your concern. I buy points for antelope, deer and elk so it could hurt me as well but it would sure be nice to be able to use that investment I have made.

In the end it is highly doubtful they do that so it's probably a moot point to discuss.

I think 50/50 as Buzz has discussed seems the most popular course of action. That will make drawing anything LQ very challenging and very unpredictable- the opposite of the reason PP were introduced in the first place. Guess we will wait and see.

 

[BuzzH]

I think a 50/50 split makes a lot of sense. It still makes points worth something and also gives more chance of drawing for those with lower point totals.

Probably the way it should have always been, along with 90-10.

Don't agree at all with rolling points between species.

 

[Hilltop]

I think a 50/50 split makes a lot of sense. It still makes points worth something and also gives more chance of drawing for those with lower point totals.

Probably the way it should have always been, along with 90-10.

Don't agree at all with rolling points between species.

How would a 50/50 split work in areas there is only 1 permit? There would be several big 5 with only 1 in a 90/10 system.

 

[BuzzH]

How would a 50/50 split work in areas there is only 1 permit? There would be several big 5 with only 1 in a 90/10 system.

Take the total number of available tags, divide by 2 and issue that many random and that many preference.

So, if there were 10 sheep tags available total, 5 random, 5 preference. Alternate the areas and tell NR hunters up front which areas will be preference and which will be random.

The GF already does that with sheep tags in areas where there are less than 4 tags issued (IMO, NR's should not get issued ANY tags under the current 75-25 split) until there are 4 tags issued. The GF alternates years making tags available to NR's in areas with 1-3 tags.

What really sucks for the NR's under max points, again in my opinion, areas like 17, 12, 19 rarely if ever issue a tag in the random draw to NR's. Because, the way the GF works that, is that there HAS to be 4 NR tags issued in an area before they issue a random tag.

So, NR guys that want a shot at hunting an easier unit with easier access, they never even get an opportunity at a random tag. Those tags always go to the top preference point holders. Sucks, IMO that guys in the lower pools never get a shot at the easier access areas.

 

[gonhunting247]

I'm kind of right in the pp total area for moose (19) that it's hard to know what is better 50/50 split or straight up point draw if they go 90/10. In UT I have 20 points for Desert Bighorn but since there's only one NR tag in most units they all go to random, which makes my points basically worthless, so that sucks too. Oh well I guess I'm contributing to something worthwhile with all this point money

 

[jimss]

With only 1 tag available it a bummer for the guys that have 0 chance for the 1 tag. It's obvious a bummer for those with high pts if there is just one tag and it's issued in the random pool. It's also a bummer for those that have few pts if this same 1 tag is issued to the guys with high pts.

Here's a good example from the Utah bonus pt draw system similar to what gonhunting247 mentioned above. Take a nonres hunter that has 25 bison pts and applies for a Henry Mtn bison tag. There are hardly any years that there are enough tags available with their draw system for there to be any tags issued for those in the high bonus pt pool for Henry's bison. A nonres with 25 pts has less than a 1% chance of drawing in the random pool but if they offered a tag in the high bonus point pool their draw odds suddenlyt would be close to 100% because they have close to max pts. Similar to what gonhunting mentioned for sheep the same thing is true with bison. A guy with max pts may wait more than a lifetime without a chance to draw a tag if they don't offer a tag in the high bonus pt pool.

Now lets consider Nevada's bonus pt system where everyone has the chance to draw each tag available. Those with higher number of pts have a chunk better odds of drawing. You get one random draw number plus the total number of accumulated points is squared and added to the current application to arrive at the total number of random draw numbers that will be assigned to the application for that species category (e.g. Hunter has two bonus points entering draw: 2² = 4+1 (for current application) = 5. Applicant receives five random numbers for draw.

There are so many options available in the Wyo draw....the sky is the limit since for D/E/A Wyo res are starting from scratch. Wyo could even have a hybrid of Utahs and Nevadas system if they wanted. A 50/50 draw where 50% of tags going to those with high pts and the other 50% of tags similar to Nevadas squared tags. How about 50% of tags squared like NV and the other 50% as a random draw. There are so many different combination of systems.

How about a 1 year wait for Wyo res drawing a limited tag PLUS a system similar to Nevadas? How about a hybrid draw which is only available in the toughest deer, elk, and antelope units and the remaining units are all random draw.

There are so many different types of draw systems and combination of systems for D/E/A. One of these systems could also be a great way to change moose and sheep? I really think Wyo could come up with an incredible system that would appeal to almost everyone. The nice thing about Wyo is the resident hunter population is so low compared to states like Utah and Colo. The turn over of applicants that draw limited tags is generally fairly fast.

 

[BuzzH]

I'm kind of right in the pp total area for moose (19) that it's hard to know what is better 50/50 split or straight up point draw if they go 90/10. In UT I have 20 points for Desert Bighorn but since there's only one NR tag in most units they all go to random, which makes my points basically worthless, so that sucks too. Oh well I guess I'm contributing to something worthwhile with all this point money

You don't have enough points for sheep...I have 22 as a NR also have 22 deer as well.

 

[BuzzH]

With only 1 tag available it a bummer for the guys that have 0 chance for the 1 tag. It's obvious a bummer for those with high pts if there is just one tag and it's issued in the random pool. It's also a bummer for those that have few pts if this same 1 tag is issued to the guys with high pts.

Here's a good example from the Utah bonus pt draw system similar to what gonhunting247 mentioned above. Take a nonres hunter that has 25 bison pts and applies for a Henry Mtn bison tag. There are hardly any years that there are enough tags available with their draw system for there to be any tags issued for those in the high bonus pt pool for Henry's bison. A nonres with 25 pts has less than a 1% chance of drawing in the random pool but if they offered a tag in the high bonus point pool their draw odds suddenlyt would be close to 100% because they have close to max pts. Similar to what gonhunting mentioned for sheep the same thing is true with bison. A guy with max pts may wait more than a lifetime without a chance to draw a tag if they don't offer a tag in the high bonus pt pool.

Now lets consider Nevada's bonus pt system where everyone has the chance to draw each tag available. Those with higher number of pts have a chunk better odds of drawing. You get one random draw number plus the total number of accumulated points is squared and added to the current application to arrive at the total number of random draw numbers that will be assigned to the application for that species category (e.g. Hunter has two bonus points entering draw: 2² = 4+1 (for current application) = 5. Applicant receives five random numbers for draw.

There are so many options available in the Wyo draw....the sky is the limit since for D/E/A Wyo res are starting from scratch. Wyo could even have a hybrid of Utahs and Nevadas system if they wanted. A 50/50 draw where 50% of tags going to those with high pts and the other 50% of tags similar to Nevadas squared tags. How about 50% of tags squared like NV and the other 50% as a random draw. There are so many different combination of systems.

How about a 1 year wait for Wyo res drawing a limited tag PLUS a system similar to Nevadas? How about a hybrid draw which is only available in the toughest deer, elk, and antelope units and the remaining units are all random draw.

There are so many different types of draw systems and combination of systems for D/E/A. One of these systems could also be a great way to change moose and sheep? I really think Wyo could come up with an incredible system that would appeal to almost everyone. The nice thing about Wyo is the resident hunter population is so low compared to states like Utah and Colo. The turn over of applicants that draw limited tags is generally fairly fast.

Squared bonus point systems like Nevada don't work much, if any better than a random draw.

Take a look at the last 5-10 years of NR sheep tags and where those tags fall. The top point holders may have a .5% better chance than those with less points. But, there's so many more applicants with 22, 21, 20, 19, 18, 17, 16, 15, 14, 13, 12, 11, 10, all the way to 1 point that your statistical "advantage" is very slight in the upper point pools. They also square all their points, so it waters down your odds to the point that realistically, 1:150 odds even with max points is probably where you're at.

Its like this say, you're the max point holder with 20 points...square that 400 numbers in the hat. Lets say you have 50 guys with 10 squared is 100 points...those guys have 5000 numbers in the hat between them.

Your odds of one of your 400 numbers being pulled is 400/5400...the odds of that tag coming from the group of 50 is 5000/5400. You have a pretty good individual advantage of being drawn over any 1 of the 50 with 10 points, but as a group, they hose you.

Squared point systems don't favor top point holders much...statistically irrelevant and probably a waste of money to even buy points under such a system. At best, all you're doing by buying points is making sure your odds don't get any worse...but its pure fantasyland to think a squared bonus point system greatly favors top point holders.

After about 15 years, a squared bonus point system it essentially a random draw.

 

[gonhunting247]

Squared bonus point systems like Nevada don't work much, if any better than a random draw.

Take a look at the last 5-10 years of NR sheep tags and where those tags fall. The top point holders may have a .5% better chance than those with less points. But, there's so many more applicants with 22, 21, 20, 19, 18, 17, 16, 15, 14, 13, 12, 11, 10, all the way to 1 point that your statistical "advantage" is very slight in the upper point pools. They also square all their points, so it waters down your odds to the point that realistically, 1:150 odds even with max points is probably where you're at.

Its like this say, you're the max point holder with 20 points...square that 400 numbers in the hat. Lets say you have 50 guys with 10 squared is 100 points...those guys have 5000 numbers in the hat between them.

Your odds of one of your 400 numbers being pulled is 400/5400...the odds of that tag coming from the group of 50 is 5000/5400. You have a pretty good individual advantage of being drawn over any 1 of the 50 with 10 points, but as a group, they hose you.

Squared point systems don't favor top point holders much...statistically irrelevant and probably a waste of money to even buy points under such a system. At best, all you're doing by buying points is making sure your odds don't get any worse...but its pure fantasyland to think a squared bonus point system greatly favors top point holders.

After about 15 years, a squared bonus point system it essentially a random draw.

Ha that feels about right. Just trying to keep odds from getting any worse at this point slightly better odds is better than worse I guess. That's why I don't bank on just those tags. I keep a pretty diverse portfolio of options each year

 

[gonhunting247]

You don't have enough points for sheep...I have 22 as a NR also have 22 deer as well.

Yep I see that every year with an unsuccessful e-mail, but I've had a few good tags and will get a few more before I'm done

 

[ScottR]

With only 1 tag available it a bummer for the guys that have 0 chance for the 1 tag. It's obvious a bummer for those with high pts if there is just one tag and it's issued in the random pool. It's also a bummer for those that have few pts if this same 1 tag is issued to the guys with high pts.

Here's a good example from the Utah bonus pt draw system similar to what gonhunting247 mentioned above. Take a nonres hunter that has 25 bison pts and applies for a Henry Mtn bison tag. There are hardly any years that there are enough tags available with their draw system for there to be any tags issued for those in the high bonus pt pool for Henry's bison. A nonres with 25 pts has less than a 1% chance of drawing in the random pool but if they offered a tag in the high bonus point pool their draw odds suddenlyt would be close to 100% because they have close to max pts. Similar to what gonhunting mentioned for sheep the same thing is true with bison. A guy with max pts may wait more than a lifetime without a chance to draw a tag if they don't offer a tag in the high bonus pt pool.

Now lets consider Nevada's bonus pt system where everyone has the chance to draw each tag available. Those with higher number of pts have a chunk better odds of drawing. You get one random draw number plus the total number of accumulated points is squared and added to the current application to arrive at the total number of random draw numbers that will be assigned to the application for that species category (e.g. Hunter has two bonus points entering draw: 2² = 4+1 (for current application) = 5. Applicant receives five random numbers for draw.

There are so many options available in the Wyo draw....the sky is the limit since for D/E/A Wyo res are starting from scratch. Wyo could even have a hybrid of Utahs and Nevadas system if they wanted. A 50/50 draw where 50% of tags going to those with high pts and the other 50% of tags similar to Nevadas squared tags. How about 50% of tags squared like NV and the other 50% as a random draw. There are so many different combination of systems.

How about a 1 year wait for Wyo res drawing a limited tag PLUS a system similar to Nevadas? How about a hybrid draw which is only available in the toughest deer, elk, and antelope units and the remaining units are all random draw.

There are so many different types of draw systems and combination of systems for D/E/A. One of these systems could also be a great way to change moose and sheep? I really think Wyo could come up with an incredible system that would appeal to almost everyone. The nice thing about Wyo is the resident hunter population is so low compared to states like Utah and Colo. The turn over of applicants that draw limited tags is generally fairly fast.

Nevada's system is about playing the game, and there is a bell curve on every single unit/species for what is drawn compared to the point totals used. Its not much different that a pay to play, capped raffle. The guy with one ticket could still be the lucky one, I am honestly not sure that it carries huge advantages to what I do as a resident in Wyoming with my random LQ opportunities every year.

 

[gonhunting247]

Seems to me all of them are about playing the game, since it takes so long to draw some hunts on points the system can/will change several times before you get there.

 

[Hilltop]

Seems to me all of them are about playing the game, since it takes so long to draw some hunts on points the system can/will change several times before you get there.

I think a lot of people are, or soon will, learn their lessons regarding preference points.

 

[gonhunting247]

I think a lot of people are, or soon will, learn their lessons regarding preference points.

I think a lot of us love to hunt enough that we will just adjust what, when, how, where we hunt as things change from all the different factors that affect draw systems.
We've all seen a lot of changes if you are very old and I would guess that's the one thing that won't change.
Do all you can to help make positive changes and enjoy it as much as possible. There is still a lot of great opportunities out there for now.

 

[ScottR]

Seems to me all of them are about playing the game, since it takes so long to draw some hunts on points the system can/will change several times before you get there.

Fair enough, Nevada's system just feels more like a game than say my home state of Wyoming is that is complete random for most of my draws.

 

[jimss]

Buzz hardly has any information or data to back up what he says. Bonus pts is a great option for states similar to Nevada and Wyoming that have very few hunters compared to the number of tags issued. In NV and WY there is a high turn over rate of applicants for all but a few high demand deer, elk, and antelope units. Obviously for species like sheep with so few tags issued draw odds will be difficult with any system. However, with squared pts an applicants chances are improved every year they apply.

Here's a list of a few Wyo res sheep units with number of applicants with pref pts.

This shows that there actually aren't that many applicants with the highest pref pts. If their points are squared it will definitely help.



Here's Wyo res moose pref pts. Take a look at unit 5. There aren't even any applicants until 15 pts...and hardly any applicants. I can guarantee that a bonus pt system for moose will improve draw odds significantly for those with high pts compared to 0 pts. Everyone applying has a chance to draw tags rather than just the highest pref pt applicants.

Every system has their advantages and disadvantages. It's interesting to look in detail at the actual numbers and understanding different draw systems and how they work.

 

[jimss]

Here's an example of draw odds for res in one of the best elk units in Nevada.


Here's another great elk unit with good draw odds for those with high bonus pts.


Notice how most of those with high pts drew tags in the table above. Those with low pts still had a chance to draw even though there were 1,247 total applicants for only 15 tags. If you take a closer look it appears that applicants with over 6 pts have over a 50% chance to draw. That tells me the system works pretty darn well! Everyone has a chance to draw every tag but those with high pts have a very good chance to draw. I can pretty much guarantee this same would hold true in Wyo...especially for deer, elk, and antelope. The bonus pt system in Nevada has been in existance for over 26 years and still working well!