The problem with that analysis is that it is impossible for someone to put in for 200 years and rack up $20,000 in actual application fees. Maybe Methusaleh, but I'm pretty sure he died without ever hunting sheep in the U.S.
Last year in Montana, the average # of bonus points for nonresidents drawn for sheep was 3.4. The highest pt # drawn was 13 points. Of course, with bonus points there are no guarantees. Way more guys had 13 pts than got drawn.
In Nevada, another bonus point state, the state lists the average nonresident draw odds as 260 to 1 (corrected). Of course, like MT, once you have double-digit points it is way higher than the average because they square the number of points and you get that many chances. So it probably takes 10-15 years to have a super chance at getting drawn but you could get drawn anytime.
In WY, max points for sheep are 21 this year, great if you started long ago, but point creep for newbies will probably have them putting in for decades.
The random draw states like NM and ID have odds so low for nonresidents that moving there is about the only real way to have any decent chance at getting drawn. CO, with its new hybrid draw is probably worth doing.
Nevada is your best chance at drawing a sheep tag. You can probably put out 15 application fees and licenses before feeling confident of drawing a tag. That's roughly $200 X 15 years or $3,000 plus your outfitter and the miscellaneous costs I mentioned earlier, still far less than Alaska.
Bottom line, the reasons to hunt up North are not saving money but gaining certainty and hunting sooner.
I think my math is pretty solid.
I don't believe the analysis you've presented holds up. On one hand you've correctly stated that Nevada's odds for a sheep tag are 1:260, yet you are saying you would have confidence to draw with 15 points. Not only does that not fit, but a newcomer (who I originally was referring to) will be starting many years behind the pack. When today's new applicant reaches 15 points the point pool has now shifted 15 years for the applicants already invested.
If it is true that the average to draw in Montana is 3.4 (which I don't doubt), that is not a testament that most tags are drawn at lower point levels, than it is to the heavy competition for tags. I am sure if one looked at the distribution of applicants, most would be piled at the lower point totals. If the large majority of applicants have lower points, most tags will be drawn by that large majority, but any given person has lousy odds.
After 30 years of serious sheep applications in most of the western states, my immediate family (12 people in total that I help apply) have drawn 7 tags in total. I feel fairly confident I have my finger on the pulse. Of those 7 tags:
3 were drawn in max point pools (those were my tags). Unless a new state implements a point system, starting at ground floor with points is no longer an option.
2 came from INTENSE research where I uncovered an anomaly in draw odds. One of those two was 30:1 odds, and was drawn in 1992.
1 came from a "cheap" youth app in Arizona in a unit no one was recommending. We were buying the license anyways, and I recall it was $7.50 to apply.
Only 1 came in a highly touted area on a long shot 200:1 type draw odds with a $100+ app fee.
My immediate family has largely stopped pursuing sheep tags outside of our home state, except where it is cheap to apply since the license if being bought for other species. That was one of the scenarios I had recommended if someone wants to have a shot to draw a tag at a reasonable cost.
Can someone draw on their first year? Without a doubt. The point is that the large majority of guys starting out today will be money ahead saving to hunt sheep rather than gambling on a sheep tag.
The roughly 200:1 odds are a reality. That is what newbies are up against. The way to offset that is to apply in multiple states, but one should count the cost because it will likely be an very expensive journey.
I am just trying to help some non-residents not "make a mistake"
