Opening The Can Of Worms...Coronavirus...

taskswap

Active Member
Jul 9, 2018
314
173
Colorado
For those of you in the "I want data" camp here are two good resources:

This first site is updated daily at midnight, with worldwide counts broken down by country, plus drill-ins. Note that this only tracks reports from voluntarily submitted, verifiable sources. That's why some counts have stopped updating (Italy has shut down a lot of the data it was sharing to them) and also means others (USA) are much higher than actually shown (not enough test kits to positively identify likely cases, plus chaos in tracking and reporting mechanisms so far). You should not use this as an absolute number for anything. The only important detail is the relative change day to day.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

This next site is a long-form article with a lot of detail about the history, current status, and general details you may want to know. The TL;DR is "Take it seriously, but don't panic." The scary part about this disease is NOT its symptoms or its death rate. It's that we still barely understand it in the first place. Anybody who says either "it's going to be a massive killer" OR "it'll just blow over like the flu" are full of it. We don't actually know either thing because we're just learning about it now. Do you know if COVID can cause cancer? No? Do you know it can't? No. Because nobody does know that. Here's what we DO know, if you want to be informed:

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/03/dont-panic-the-comprehensive-ars-technica-guide-to-the-coronavirus/

Hype and mis-reporting are happening from both sides, but honestly it's probably as much lack of actual knowledge than any "agenda". I've done enough consulting in the media industry to have an inside view into how it works, and I can tell you that the bulk of the "agenda" most people see just isn't there. The real answer is not actually better - in some views it might be worse. The bulk of media outlets really just want to make money, and they do it by getting clicks and views. Guess how that happens? They write stuff people want to read!

95% of the time, what people want to read is what they already believe and just want reinforcement on. Anything that counters their view is an "agenda". If there's an agenda, it's on the part of the readers, and the MSM is just selling into it. I'm not saying this in defense of the industry. If anything, I think it paints a worse view because at least if you DO have an agenda you can stand up and say "I have values and I stand by them." The truth is actually worse in most cases. There are exceptions. Some media outlets do have an objectively verifiable "agenda" but most don't. Most are just indifferent shills writing whatever titles and ledes their analytics tell them get the most clicks each week...

Anyway, soapbox off. Keep safe everybody, and here's to a good hunting season once this is all behind us.
 
Jun 29, 2016
83
29
Coastal Maine
Here's a quiz that will help put this into perspective.....There is a pond....One day someone plants a water lily......the next day the plant doubles in size so you have 2 lily pads......the third day the plant doubles in size again so the count is 4 pads. this goes on every day until on the 30th day the pond is covered. Question...When is the pond half covered? This is how pandemics happen... really.
 

kidoggy

Veteran member
Apr 23, 2016
4,441
1,507
53
idaho
I figure there is nothing to fear simply because I identify as disease free. ;)

we will never win the war of worlds if our population doesn't build natural immunities to the viruses of this planet. :D :alien:
 
Last edited:
  • Haha
Reactions: D_Dubya

Gr8bawana

Veteran member
Aug 14, 2014
2,252
98
Nevada
I sincerely hope this ends up being something that was overblown. My wife and I have enough non perishables and frozen game for several months. We have a propane tank and private well so as long as the power never goes out we are set for a good while. Also plenty of fuel for the gen.
I don't want to see an actual breakdown of society.
 
Jun 29, 2016
83
29
Coastal Maine
Here's a quiz that will help put this into perspective.....There is a pond....One day someone plants a water lily......the next day the plant doubles in size so you have 2 lily pads......the third day the plant doubles in size again so the count is 4 pads. this goes on every day until on the 30th day the pond is covered. Question...When is the pond half covered? This is how pandemics happen... really.
The answer is the 29th day. Working backwards the pond is half full on day 29 1 forth full on the 28th and 1 sixteenth full on the 26 th day. You wouldn't even see it 25 days in and the BLAM it just explodes. Thats what we are up against .
 

dustin ray

Veteran member
Oct 23, 2011
1,064
309
Alta Loma CA
The word from two deferent people that know people in high places say Trump will Quarantine the whole nation vary soon
If true things is going to get vary crazy i know some of my neighbors are not ready
stay safe out there my friends
 

kidoggy

Veteran member
Apr 23, 2016
4,441
1,507
53
idaho
The answer is the 29th day. Working backwards the pond is half full on day 29 1 forth full on the 28th and 1 sixteenth full on the 26 th day. You wouldn't even see it 25 days in and the BLAM it just explodes. Thats what we are up against .
welp .it's been going on since jan 22 (that is more then a month,even more then two months;)) so logically one can now conclude it is not nearly so bad as being made out to be. :unsure: :D
 

Yell Co AR Hunter

Active Member
Dec 10, 2015
463
122
Yell County Arkansas
I predict that the State of Arkansas will be on total lock down by the end of the week. All schools were ordered shut down beginning 03/17/20. Over half of the people in this State can not afford to miss one pay check. Already talk of shutting down all business. This could very well go down as a major event in history.
On a side note crappie bit is just a week or so out. I will be ok unless they shut down all travel.
 

RICMIC

Veteran member
Feb 21, 2012
1,249
336
Two Harbors, Minnesota
Kid: Ref. your question about the run on T.P. when this isn't a crapping type flu. When you self-isolate or quarantine you don't want to run out if you can't get to the store every few days. Farmers will never run out as long as they have corn cobs.
 
  • Like
Reactions: kidoggy

WapitiBob

Veteran member
Mar 1, 2011
1,345
26
Bend, Orygun
Kid: Ref. your question about the run on T.P. when this isn't a crapping type flu. When you self-isolate or quarantine you don't want to run out if you can't get to the store every few days. Farmers will never run out as long as they have corn cobs.
If you go thru a full pack pf TP every cpl days you have more to worry about than covid-19.
 

go_deep

Veteran member
Nov 30, 2014
2,101
681
Wyoming
Maybe you'll know some really important people, but if you don't know for 100% that this going to happen without a doubt throwing out that Trump will quarantine the nation, martial law will be in effect with no one allowed to leave their homes. This is how you feed the stupid actions we're seeing at stores.
If you've actually read an article stating this, post a link. If you know a high ranking offical that told you this straight to your face, included their full name.

Rumors need to end, it's only make stupid people do even dumber things.
 

buckbull

Veteran member
Jun 20, 2011
1,342
234
Here in illinois, all schools will be shutdown starting tomorrow and the earliest the kids will go back is March 31. All bars and restaurants that have sit down seating are closing starting tomorrow. We have plenty of cloth diapers left from when the kids were babies, not worried about having something to wipe with.
 
Jun 29, 2016
83
29
Coastal Maine
welp .it's been going on since jan 22 (that is more then a month,even more then two months;)) so logically one can now conclude it is not nearly so bad as being made out to be. :unsure: :D
Or the pond is bigger. I have no idea how far into this we are. And this is not to scale.Tthe pond illustration only shows how something growing at an expodential rate can seem tiny for a long time and then get BIG..FAST. We just know it is going to get big but drastic measures MAY be able to have it get BIG,
SLOWLY. That's the best outcome we can hope for. If our hospitals get overwhelmed we are in deep. Having said that I have parts of a couple of deer and a pile of haddock (thats fish for all you Westerners) in the freezer as do a lot of hunters and Ain't we feeling smug now! Being hunters I figure most of us live in the country and spend a lot of time sitting by ourselves so we should be OK. Just check with your neighbors. I might even bring them some chowder.
 
  • Like
Reactions: kidoggy

kidoggy

Veteran member
Apr 23, 2016
4,441
1,507
53
idaho
Or the pond is bigger. I have no idea how far into this we are. And this is not to scale.Tthe pond illustration only shows how something growing at an expodential rate can seem tiny for a long time and then get BIG..FAST. We just know it is going to get big but drastic measures MAY be able to have it get BIG,
SLOWLY. That's the best outcome we can hope for. If our hospitals get overwhelmed we are in deep. Having said that I have parts of a couple of deer and a pile of haddock (thats fish for all you Westerners) in the freezer as do a lot of hunters and Ain't we feeling smug now! Being hunters I figure most of us live in the country and spend a lot of time sitting by ourselves so we should be OK. Just check with your neighbors. I might even bring them some chowder.
I know what you were going for .I got your drift.

but the pond thing is still not really a very accurate account

unlike the water lilys in pond, every day now people are also recovering. some few die, the vast majority do not. from what I've been able to sort out most don't even really get all that sick.



I wonder has anyone seen any articles or reports on the percentage of people who get cv19 who even actually need hospital care???????????
I also have to question ....of the 8 billion some people on the planet , how many already have a natural immunity ????????????? Idon't know if any do but I suspect it is likely.
just going by all the other diseases we have seen, it seems one cn logically conclude,the odds of every individual contracting the 19 is astronomical.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: JimP