If you had max AZ deer points, what would you do?

[mntnguide]

Is 30"-50" of horn worth possibly 15 more years and thousands of dollars to you? I prefer to hunt, so option 2 would be my choice. Id rather look at a lot of deer, have a fun hunt with still the possible chance at a giant buck than wait to hunt something that could be entirely different than what it is now in the next decade... just my thoughts though

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[bigsky2]

I hunted the Kaibab last year during the archery season, I'd take option 2! That was the only time I've hunted it so I have limited knowledge, but feel free to PM me if you want to know anything about what I learned.

 

[Hilltop]

The real question is will you regret burning those points. You have played the points game across the west probably better than anyone- on this site at least. I agree that one should hunt as often as possible and if that were your only option, I would say go for number 2. That said, do you have any other comparable hunts you can do in the next year or two that would scratch the itch so you could keep saving? If you do, I would say option #1. I know how bad you want a giant mule deer.

 

[Fink]

From the results I've seen of many of the fine tags you've drawn over the years on this forum, I wouldn't rule out a 210+ buck on option 2.
Go for 2. Life can throw you some serious curveballs in a hurry. Plus, you'll get to do some fun hunts with your kids and your wife. Coming from a guy with a dad who's starting to phase himself out of hunting, hunting with him when I can starts to mean more and more, I'm sure your kids will start to feel the same.

 

[Catahoula12]

Wow! Certainly a big decision. I’ve archery hunted 12AW on three different occasions as a resident. Saw lots of nice bucks all three times with one hunt successful. The Kaibab is a very special place. Just the beauty of it is incredible. I would opt for the 2nd option. However, 12b has had some stout bucks throughout the area some years. You really can’t just sit and contemplate, apply and see what happens. Then, whatever comes to your mailbox....start your plan. Good luck in the draw for sure.

 

[Umpqua Hunter]

I am one step closer to pulling the trigger on Option 2

Today, I spent a couple hours drafting a letter to my home state of Oregon about a proposed change, that went up on their website yesterday. They are making a proposal that will basically nullify 22 points that I've built for a top 3 mule deer tag that I should draw in about 5 years. The proposal came out two weeks after the application deadline and indicates it may go into effect next year. Moves like these that make me super leery on tags where I can draw a great tag now, but may still have a 15+ year wait for the best tag even in the max point pool. The 13B rifle tag is in that category. There is a large backlog of max point applicants and quite a few with one less than max that just need to travel out to Arizona to get their hunter's safety point.

Earlier this year AZ was proposing a Super Point idea where one point could be bought for ONE specie. I have 30 for antelope, 30 for sheep (after this year's draw), max for deer, and 21 for elk. Hmmm, which tag would I buy the Super Point for if that happened? Probably sheep. I would then start falling behind on the other species as other applicants bought Super points for those species. Since I am in the bonus pass for deer, one two to years from the bonus pass for sheep, I have a couple year advantage on antelope and a year or two buffer on a good elk tag, a concept like a Super point would mess that up in a hurry. Though the Super Point may never go into effect, but proposals like that are devastating when you are highly invested. Once in a while they stick like a few years ago when the nonresident bonus pass in AZ was limited to half the nonresident tags. Good for low point applicants, devastating when you are close you the tag you've paid into for decades.

 

[Shooter]

If it were me I would go option #2.

Far more people hunt the strip and come home with less than a 200 - 230 buck than kill one. And there are 230"+ bucks killed on the Kaibab every year. Not as many as the strip but they do get killed most every year. I would take a Kaibab tag in a heartbeat this year. With all the talk about how wet it has been this year horn growth should be off the charts. I saw a guide on FB talking about expect 20 extra inches this year on big bucks with how wet it has been. And 30 plus extra on elk. So who knows 12AW could be really good for a giant this year just because it has so many more deer than 13B and the wet weather. And do the dates ever get later than they are this year? The stars are aligning for some huge bucks to be killed on the Kaibab this year.

 

[Umpqua Hunter]

If it were me I would go option #2.

Far more people hunt the strip and come home with less than a 200 - 230 buck than kill one. And there are 230"+ bucks killed on the Kaibab every year. Not as many as the strip but they do get killed most every year. I would take a Kaibab tag in a heartbeat this year. With all the talk about how wet it has been this year horn growth should be off the charts. I saw a guide on FB talking about expect 20 extra inches this year on big bucks with how wet it has been. And 30 plus extra on elk. So who knows 12AW could be really good for a giant this year just because it has so many more deer than 13B and the wet weather. And do the dates ever get later than they are this year? The stars are aligning for some huge bucks to be killed on the Kaibab this year.

With the shear number of 180 bucks I heard of reported on at the end of the 12AW hunt last year (terrible drought year) I have to believe those bucks will be putting on 10+" of horn which should translate to a bunch of 190+ class bucks.

Probably the biggest factor that separates the Strip (13B) and the Kaibab is age class and with age class comes antler mass. I would take a buck with mass and extras any day over a high scoring buck. Mass doesn't put on much score relatively but it sure does make a buck pretty.

The factor that I am still mulling over is that this year represents another big tag drop on the Kaibab. Those tag drops correlate to less hunting pressure THIS year, but in FUTURE years it should represents better age class. In fact, that is the purpose of these tag cuts, to push age class up. In 2011 there were 175 late 12W tags. That dropped to 135 in 2012. Then in 2015 they dropped to 100 tags. Finally this year there are 75 tags. The class of bucks on the Kaibab has continued to improve with the tag cuts over that past decade or so, so in theory to hold off on the Kaibab another 2-3 years could be really good for improved age class. Then you may have poor moisture years, a change in the rules of the draw, a poor moon, bad dates, etc etc.

I was telling a friend this morning that often when drawing tags you have to think pragmatically and not just some dream hunt you have played out in your head. I did that in Colorado a few years ago on elk with 23 points. I knew I was giving up 20" of horn but had the time of my life chasing rutting bulls.

 

[Alabama]

Probably the biggest factor that separates the Strip (13B) and the Kaibab is age class and with age class comes antler mass. I would take a buck with mass and extras any day over a high scoring buck. Mass doesn't put on much score relatively but it sure does make a buck pretty.

I agree 100% Mass is my favorite part of big deer. Mass=maturity. I think with your experience hunting mule deer (and just hunting in general) you will have a leg up on the competition. If you hunt the whole season and don't get trigger happy, you could kill a buck that is worthy of all those years invested. I think you're selling it a little short on the difference in the antler quality, IMHO you would gain 10" of antler from a severe drought year to a normal moisture year. I would think a good year like this would give an extra 10" of antler plus more mass over even a normal moisture year.

On a final note: Would a 230" deer with a team of spotters make you happier than a 200" or even a 190"deer earned on your own?

Option #2 is my vote. Good Luck!

 

[Prerylyon]

#2.

[emoji38]

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[ColoradoV]

#1...

You seem to have a lot of options (other states/plans) for 180+ type bucks but there are only so many places you can get a real giant.

Some hunts/places are special and the strip is at the top or very near the top of that very short list. Also my opinion is based on - I am lucky enough to hunt 180+ bucks just about every year so the chance at the strip lottery would be worth the wait or chance of never drawing the tag.

Good luck on your choice.

 

[hskrhntr]

If it were me I'd go with #2 because I would have a lot more fun on a hunt where I'm seeing a lot of good deer that is DIY or mostly DIY. But if you're really wanting that one shot at a true monster then it'd be a really tough decision. Either way ya really can't go wrong. Good luck on whichever one you choose!

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[graybird]

Knowing what you drew in Colorado this year and the amount of time you need to invest in that hunt, I'd certainly consider all options including tags in pocket before making a final decision.

Good luck!!!

 

[Umpqua Hunter]

A good hitch in the plan. For Oregon sheep, my son has a very good application number compared to the seed number for the sheep draw. His number is about 8 times better than he needs to draw the tag. It will be a long wait for draw results to post, since there are only two tags for his hunt choice.

 

[graybird]

A good hitch in the plan. For Oregon sheep, my son has a very good application number compared to the seed number for the sheep draw. His number is about 8 times better than he needs to draw the tag. It will be a long wait for draw results to post, since there are only two tags for his hunt choice.

Fantastic! hope good things happen!!!

 

[Extrapale]

Curious how far off he is? My dad is within 3% on a tag that has 1%+ draw odds.

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[Umpqua Hunter]

Curious how far off he is? My dad is within 3% on a tag that has 1%+ draw odds.

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Out of 10 million possible numbers, his application number is only 9051 larger than the seed number. That is within 0.09% of the seed number on his sheep application for a tag with about 0.8% odds. There are a couple tags for the hunt so two people will have to beat him for him to miss.

I am within 0.29% of the seed number on my Premium Antelope application but I think it will take about 0.1% to draw it.

 

[dirtclod Az.]

How are your odds in YOUR state?Hmm?

 

[Umpqua Hunter]

How are your odds in YOUR state?Hmm?

Odds for sheep? For residents it runs between about 1 in 80 to 1 in 1000 depending on the tag.

 

[bcdeer]

I live in Az and have had the Strip tag and the 13W hunt but it was the early hunt. Why not let the draw decide? Az only looks at the first 2 choices anyhow so put 13B first and 12W late second and go enjoy whichever tag you get drawn for. Sounds like you would be fine with your second choice anyhow and with this years weather both tags will be very good ones.