AZ NR draw ? (5/5 allocation)

Shane13

Active Member
Aug 8, 2012
300
200
Abilene, Texas
NRs are getting the shaft more and more in western state draws. Politicians take care of their constituents. It's understandable. It is what it is. Here is my thinking on what a NR hunter's best strategy is in this environment....

Add up what you would be spending each year in license and draw fees and put that aside in a savings account or in a mutual fund. You will accumulate enough money to buy a quality tag a lot faster than you will ever draw one.
 

Horniac

Member
Jul 14, 2011
148
12
NorCal
The elk/antelope book isn't the full regulations. Those will be printed later. I posted exact language back in November in the "az draw changes" thread.
Understood WapitiBob. Maybe the elk/antelope book was published before this change was implemented but they certainly could have revised the on-line language to reflect this change or put something somewhere on-line to notify NR applicants of this significant change. Especially since this change should encourage more NR participation and generate more revenue for the department.

Of course, maybe this lack of prominent notification will keep those NR applicants "not in the know" about this change that otherwise would not be in the running for a premium bonus tag from applying for one of the primo units. This would at least give the high point holders better odds for a random tag during the 1-2 random pass this go around before the "cat's out of the bag" for future draws. Wishful thinking I'm sure haha...

Horniac
 

WapitiBob

Veteran member
Mar 1, 2011
1,367
42
Bend, Orygun
Tag return is lagging way behind schedule (my schedule anyway). It will not be available for the Elk draw and won't be available until the membership portion of the Portal is up. The two are tied at the hip from what I have seen.
I don't have an answer as to why the draw change isn't at least noted "new for 2016" section.
 

BuzzH

Very Active Member
Apr 15, 2015
860
788
NRs are getting the shaft more and more in western state draws. Politicians take care of their constituents. It's understandable. It is what it is. Here is my thinking on what a NR hunter's best strategy is in this environment....

Add up what you would be spending each year in license and draw fees and put that aside in a savings account or in a mutual fund. You will accumulate enough money to buy a quality tag a lot faster than you will ever draw one.
I don't agree with this, depending on the tag you're talking about.

I'm almost reluctant to post this, but the way to "beat" the point systems is to do more research, hunt harder, hunt smarter and quit trying to draw tags that other sources claim to be the "best". IME, many of the "best" units are not worth waiting 15 years to draw. Plus, when you look at what many hunters take in these "best" units, a vast majority of their animals are average at best. It makes NO sense to wait 10-15-20 years to draw a tag, then settle on an average animal. Animals that you could have taken several of in the same time frame by hunting smarter, harder, and doing a bit more research.

Also, when you never accumulate many points, its no big deal if the system changes. My thought on who "wins" is NOT the guy that dies with the most points, but rather the hunter that dies with zero points, and the most hunts under their belt.

In the case of AZ, I have done exactly what I just described. Since 2002, I have drawn 3 rifle bull elk tags, a desert sheep, 3 late coues deer tags, and a bunch of javelina tags. I used my time hunting javelina to not only escape the cold weather of Wyoming, but also to poke around in lesser known elk and deer units for future applications.

I've never had a bad hunt in Arizona, even though I didn't draw the "best" units or tags.

Also, it would take a lot of drawing fees to save enough for a desert sheep tag.
 

Shane13

Active Member
Aug 8, 2012
300
200
Abilene, Texas
Sounds like you are doing well, BuzzH. You make excellent points. I've used feral hog, spring turkey, and doe hunts for similar purposes in the Texas draw system. Also desert sheep tags are definitely not easy to draw OR purchase. I was lucky enough to draw one in Texas. I'd rather be lucky than good any day.
 

Tim McCoy

Veteran member
Dec 15, 2014
1,855
4
Oregon
There are many paths to hunting success. BuzzH and Shane13 both have valid strategies in my opinion. I've done some of each myself, but have continued to play the points game in a number of states for certain areas.

The fact there are alternate strategies does not diminish the sting when the rules are changed to put your 20 ish year investment at risk of being a waste of time and $. It is only going to get worse I suspect, particularly in states that use preference points or modified bonus point systems with preference point concepts, like AZ.

I am not sure what the answer is, probably more bonus point draws to give all a shot and encourage participation over the long term. What ever the system, we as hunters need to think of the next generation and advocate for youth and/or first time hunter opportunities. As demand goes up, more point creep happens, and newer hunters can be almost mathematically shut out in many areas. Many states do a great job there, like OR, offering separate youth draws and a guaranteed youth draw tag for buck, antlerless, and elk in units with at least 51 tags, (201 for bucks), if they have not drawn already.
 

Zim

Very Active Member
Feb 28, 2011
733
55
LaPorte, IN
There are many paths to hunting success. BuzzH and Shane13 both have valid strategies in my opinion. I've done some of each myself, but have continued to play the points game in a number of states for certain areas.

The fact there are alternate strategies does not diminish the sting when the rules are changed to put your 20 ish year investment at risk of being a waste of time and $. It is only going to get worse I suspect, particularly in states that use preference points or modified bonus point systems with preference point concepts, like AZ.

I am not sure what the answer is, probably more bonus point draws to give all a shot and encourage participation over the long term. What ever the system, we as hunters need to think of the next generation and advocate for youth and/or first time hunter opportunities. As demand goes up, more point creep happens, and newer hunters can be almost mathematically shut out in many areas. Many states do a great job there, like OR, offering separate youth draws and a guaranteed youth draw tag for buck, antlerless, and elk in units with at least 51 tags, (201 for bucks), if they have not drawn already.
Not sure if I'd use Oregon as an example of doing a good job, at least for nonresidents. Cut my 18 points in half when they dropped the NR quota to only 5%, half of which they piss away to outfitters. Leaves a whopping 2 1/2% for DIY NR's. I'm scared to death they will further "change" their system to screw me out of my points. Can't burn my elk points fast enough there.
 

Tim McCoy

Veteran member
Dec 15, 2014
1,855
4
Oregon
Ya, should have clarified when I said youth, should have said for resident youth. OR is not a great place for NR in terms of tag allocation, among other things.
 

Extractor

Active Member
Jun 7, 2015
331
42
Appleton, Wisconsin
So mankind shot a rocket into outer-space 46 years ago, that spaceship travelled over 235,000 miles, we figured out trajectories, gravitational pulls of earth, moon, and sun, velocities, drag and so forth. Now we can't figure out how to prevent point creep. I'd like to hear from everyone what they think is their best solution to the problem. How do we not penalize high point holders (I'm one of them), while still encouraging low point holders ( my sons) to invest in the system. Because a fair solution has to be possible, I said fair, not painless, otherwise Game and Fish Departments budgets will suffer and so will all the species of game we claim to love to be around.
 

WapitiBob

Veteran member
Mar 1, 2011
1,367
42
Bend, Orygun
Simply issue tags equal to the number of applicants and the problem is solved.

People want their quality but don't want to pay the consequences. The common theme is "I'd wait a year or two, to be able to have a quality hunt". Wouldn't we all?
 

Hycntryhtr

Member
Feb 22, 2014
145
0
north colorado
Everyone thinks that it's only NRs that have hell drawing tags in az.. that's funny, it took me 10 yrs to draw a bull tag, took my dad 15 yrs to draw a bull tag I have friends that have waited 15+ yrs to draw archery tags. Believe me the draw odds for NRs are seemingly better than they are for residents. If you don't like it don't put in. Try putting in for antelope, my uncle has 22 bps and still can't draw. Or desert sheep, hell a December whitetail tag will take you 5-8 yrs to draw. Yeah unit 1 and 27 are good but the g&f is over hunting these units, the elk quality is on the downturn, unit 10 you better be willing to pay the 500$ trespass fee for the boqious ranch, yeah unit 23 probably the best unit all around it'll take you 18+ points to draw. Look at 4a 6a 3b.. Every unit in az houses great Bulls. Read the regs, find the holes, you'll pull a tag about every 4 yrs. once you get to 5 points put in for better tags, when you hit 8 points you've waited 8 yrs wait some more but put in for the best units. So quit crying about bonus points. We all have to deal with them.
 

Umpqua Hunter

Veteran member
May 26, 2011
3,568
73
58
North Umpqua, Oregon
Guys, from what I have heard a strip tag is possible with 7 or 8 points if you do archery
I'd estimate your odds with those points would be around 1-2%. That is an educated "guess" that comes from the ratio of non-resident applicants compared to resident applicants, the percentage of tags available to non-residents in the random "1-2 pass", as well as the higher demand non-residents have for the premium tags.
 
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cmbbulldog

Active Member
Jul 18, 2011
264
21
I posted this on another forum, and thought it would be good to share here as well. This is in regards to elk in AZ...

I went ahead and ran more numbers based all hunters that apply in AZ.

When we are thinking about the random draw, NR's are going for 6% of the tags to get to the 10% cap. (5/80) Assuming that 5% of the tags will be allocated in the first pass.

There are 33,283 NR to 211,310 Residents.

So, NR's make up 13.6% of the application pool. Remember, NR's are only trying to get 6% of the tags in the random draw.

On average, NR's have 4.25 Bonus Points.
On average, Residents have 2.11 Bonus Points.

So, NR's are twice as likely (on average) to draw a tag in the random draw than a resident.

Given that NR's can really only get 6% of the tags, make up 13% of the application pool, and are twice as likely to draw based on bonus points.... I have a hard time believing NR's wont hit the 10% cap.

You can add in other assumptions like...

How many NR's are applying for cow tags vs. Residents. Im assuming very few NR hunters apply for cow tags, and I know many resident hunters that do. So, when we are talking about bull hunts, it will skew the #'s more in favor (with regards to hitting the 10% cap) of the NR hunter.
 

mgorm16640

Member
Jan 8, 2016
54
0
Worland WY
BuzzH

Great post. I have never understood waiting 10-20 years to go hunting. I have enough trouble making it through the off season. As an AZ resident, I have friends that haven't went elk hunting for over a decade in their own state, I just don't get it. I know that I will never hunt the strip or even unit 9, but I have still managed to put a few nice animals on the wall.
 

Tim McCoy

Veteran member
Dec 15, 2014
1,855
4
Oregon
BuzzH

Great post. I have never understood waiting 10-20 years to go hunting. I have enough trouble making it through the off season. As an AZ resident, I have friends that haven't went elk hunting for over a decade in their own state, I just don't get it. I know that I will never hunt the strip or even unit 9, but I have still managed to put a few nice animals on the wall.
That is the very reason many of us have a multi tiered draw strategy, with regular hunts while we may build points for a couple dream hunts. They are not mutually exclusive goals if your budget can support applying in more than one state.
 

mgorm16640

Member
Jan 8, 2016
54
0
Worland WY
I hear you, to each his own I guess. I have my own dream hunts. I'm buying points for sheep and goats and moose in WY and will continue to buy points in AZ for everything. I just never expect that I will hunt a premier unit.

I have only been out here for a few years. In PA you buy your license and go hunting. That simple. When we first got here, I was surprised at the effort and energy people expend on the draw process and the aggravation that often ensues. When I hear people talk about multi tiered draw strategies, I have to smile. If it works for you, great. Get after it.

To me, Its hunting, get out in the woods with your kids. Put some meat on the table.