AZ NR draw ? (5/5 allocation)

dirtytough

Member
Feb 15, 2012
56
0
Washington
How do you equate the az draw with a pp system? I see that reference a lot but believe it's an incorrect analogy.

The only difference between a pp system and a bonus point system, by their very nature is the allocation of random numbers; either a single chance for a random number or multiple chances.
The allocation of tags is a different function of the draw, ie 20/80 AZ, 50/50 UT, 75/25 OR-WY.
Easy. During the previous system if you had 20 points and I had 19 both non res and we both applied for 23N archery I have zero chance of drawing it. That's why I call it a preference point system. If the non res % of tags aren't drawn during the bonus pass "should be called preference pass" then bonus points are taken into account.

For a resident yes it is more of a bonus points system then a preference. But not for a non res.
 

dirtytough

Member
Feb 15, 2012
56
0
Washington
I wish Arizona would have stayed with its original bonus point system........for those that remember if you were not drawn, you earned a point for next years drawing. There was no % set aside for those with the most points.......just a simple lottery type drawing. Those with more points increased their odds of the computer assigning them a lower number to draw. EVERYONE had a chance.

Thanks for the info. I didn't know that. Now I don't feel bad at all about the system changing. Its still better for top point holders then when the system started. So why are you guys complaining? If it changed once why wouldn't you think it's going to change again? Oh because now it doesn't benefit you as much as the previous version did. I understand now.
 

Doe Nob

Very Active Member
Feb 21, 2011
565
0
Houston, TX
Thanks for the info. I didn't know that. Now I don't feel bad at all about the system changing. Its still better for top point holders then when the system started. So why are you guys complaining? If it changed once why wouldn't you think it's going to change again? Oh because now it doesn't benefit you as much as the previous version did. I understand now.
What if your boss came to you tomorrow and said oh by the way, you are getting a 50% pay cut. We know we had a deal with you and you are going to have to still put in the same effort for less results, but things change, don't be mad bro. :confused:
 

Umpqua Hunter

Veteran member
May 26, 2011
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North Umpqua, Oregon
To be concise, the part I believe is wrong is changing the rules many years in. Smart people look at where they are, how many people are ahead of them and what it will take to draw and the investment involved to get there, they don't gamble. When I look at what to apply for, I ask myself is this a better path such buying a landowner tag or saving for a guided hunt on a general tag. Those were all options going in.

I am all for pure bonus point systems (like NV) but not for changing the rules significantly midstream.
 
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WapitiBob

Veteran member
Mar 1, 2011
1,367
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Bend, Orygun
Easy. During the previous system if you had 20 points and I had 19 both non res and we both applied for 23N archery I have zero chance of drawing it. That's why I call it a preference point system. If the non res % of tags aren't drawn during the bonus pass "should be called preference pass" then bonus points are taken into account.

For a resident yes it is more of a bonus points system then a preference. But not for a non res.
In either system, if I have 20 and you have 19, you have zero chance of drawing in the points round. In the 1-2 Pass round, the only difference in a BP system is I have 1 more chance at a low number than you. You could draw with zero points. Same for a PP system.
 

Zim

Very Active Member
Feb 28, 2011
733
55
LaPorte, IN
Everyone wants sumthin fer nuthin, from my ex, to state governments, to F&G Departments. Free money. An easy way out. Bottom line is you can't trust ANYONE.

And few of the NR newbies who look at it from a selfish standpoint seem to grasp that this "change" is in fact a net LOSS for them in the long run. The second 5% of the tags are open to R & NR alike, so it's likely most of those will go to residents now. So overall nonresident tags will drop from around 9% to 6% or 7%. They had a good chance for units like 6 every year, but not any more. They will continue to receive USUCs in their mailboxes. Amazing how many people fall for Powerball mentality, just like the lemmings in Utah who run to that Expo to buy tickets from criminals for their snowball's chance in hell.
 
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To be concise, the part I believe is wrong is changing the rules many years in. Smart people look at where they are, how many people are ahead of them and what it will take to draw and the investment involved to get there, they don't gamble. When I look at what to apply for, I ask myself is this a better path such buying a landowner tag or saving for a guided hunt on a general tag. Those were all options going in.

I am all for pure bonus point systems (like NV) but not for changing the rules significantly midstream.
Again, I agree that I'd rather not see changes. However, our perspectives are different. As a relative newcomer, I EXPECT changes. That's part of why I'm on this forum--to pick up rumors and early warnings of possible changes. I intentionally stopped at the Eastman's booth at the sportsman's show in Portland last year and visited with Ike about rumors of change in Wyoming. Funny how we complain about point creep and then complain when they do something about it.

QQ
 

Zim

Very Active Member
Feb 28, 2011
733
55
LaPorte, IN
QQ, This rule chance actually hurts you. If and when AZF&G ever publishes the R/NR draw odds you will figure it out. You are not going to draw unit 6 anytime soon now.
 

cmbbulldog

Active Member
Jul 18, 2011
264
21
Everyone wants sumthin fer nuthin, from my ex, to state governments, to F&G Departments. Free money. An easy way out. Bottom line is you can't trust ANYONE.

And few of the NR newbies who look at it from a selfish standpoint seem to grasp that this "change" is in fact a net LOSS for them in the long run. The second 5% of the tags are open to R & NR alike, so it's likely most of those will go to residents now. So overall nonresident tags will drop from around 9% to 6% or 7%. They had a good chance for units like 6 every year, but not any more. They will continue to receive USUCs in their mailboxes. Amazing how many people fall for Powerball mentality, just like the lemmings in Utah who run to that Expo to buy tickets from criminals for their snowball's chance in hell.
Zim - I tend to disagree that NR will get less than 10% of the tags. Since the random draw is a "bonus point" system and NR's typically have more bonus points... i find it almost impossible to believe the NR's wont draw 5% of the remaining tags. From a statistics perspective, it would almost be impossible.
 
QQ, This rule chance actually hurts you. If and when AZF&G ever publishes the R/NR draw odds you will figure it out. You are not going to draw unit 6 anytime soon now.
You missed my earlier post where I said that Arizona's system does not enough value for me to apply in the first place. The fees are high enough, and the odds are low enough that I decided to keep my money.

QQ
 

Umpqua Hunter

Veteran member
May 26, 2011
3,568
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North Umpqua, Oregon
Change would be fine if little or no investment is made. It's stealing when a significant investment and a significant change is made.

I'd also be fine if AZ offered to send me all my license fees and app fees back, with interest.
 

Alabama

Veteran member
Feb 18, 2013
1,351
148
Sweet Home Alabama
Just move to AZ for 6 months buy the lifetime license then move back home and enjoy resident odds for life! ;) Obviously I'm joking and trying to lighten the mood. Point creep is going to get very bad now. When people see the true odds (if they release the NR odds separately) I think we will all be surprised how low they really are for such a high cost.
 

dirtytough

Member
Feb 15, 2012
56
0
Washington
What if your boss came to you tomorrow and said oh by the way, you are getting a 50% pay cut. We know we had a deal with you and you are going to have to still put in the same effort for less results, but things change, don't be mad bro. :confused:
Then I have the choice to quit or keep working there. I took a pay cut this year to keep working. Did I like it? Nope but I also didn't get on every social media page and tell everyone that would listen to me whine. "not saying everybody is whining that has high points"
 

dirtytough

Member
Feb 15, 2012
56
0
Washington
In either system, if I have 20 and you have 19, you have zero chance of drawing in the points round. In the 1-2 Pass round, the only difference in a BP system is I have 1 more chance at a low number than you. You could draw with zero points. Same for a PP system.
No in a true bonus point system like NV and WA have then everyone has a shot. At a modified bonus point system like AZ has had in place for years I have zero chance at a tag in unit 23n if any other non res applies with one more point then I have. Preference is givin to the highest point holders. Hence a preference point system. When 99%+ of the good tags get drawn in the bonus pass it turned the system from a bonus to preference system.
 

WapitiBob

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Mar 1, 2011
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Bend, Orygun
Preference is given to highest point holders in every system. That alone doesn't make one a bonus point or preference point draw.
 
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Zim

Very Active Member
Feb 28, 2011
733
55
LaPorte, IN
Zim - I tend to disagree that NR will get less than 10% of the tags. Since the random draw is a "bonus point" system and NR's typically have more bonus points... i find it almost impossible to believe the NR's wont draw 5% of the remaining tags. From a statistics perspective, it would almost be impossible.
This has been kicked around on several forums and I've read. Several opinions. Nobody will know until we go through a couple draws, because of the R/NR breakdown. But I don't see any way this will INCREASE the number of tags NR draw. And if they can't increase, there's only one other way to go. Time will tell.
 

Horniac

Member
Jul 14, 2011
148
12
NorCal
So as stated in the MRS, there's a 10% cap on NR tags. The state to give everyone a better chance is now going to reserve 5% of NR tags for the Bonus point draw and 5% for the random draw. In every hunt category EXCEPT sheep and bison, the cap is by individual.

I know that this change to the NR draw has been widely reported to have occurred, but where is it spelled out exactly?

I did a cursory review of the 2016 Elk/Antelope regulations including "Important Information for 2016" and the Hunt Draw Process @ https://www.azgfd.com/hunting/draw/process, and didn't see anything about this change. I certainly could have missed it, but for such a significant change, you think it would be clearly spelled out everywhere.

As a NR with 17 elk points, I am certainly not very happy about this change. On the other hand however, having already drawn out my antelope and deer tags, this change would now allow me to apply for any unit of my choosing, and at least have a remote chance of drawing a premium random tag. Unfortunately, this would be at the expense of another NR who has waited his or her turn in line.

Since the draw computer looks at an applicants 1st and 2nd hunt choices, I would anticipate that the lions share of NR applicants that understand how the draw system works and the significance of this change that would not otherwise be in the running for a top tier bonus tag (i.e. 13B, 9, 23N, etc.) are now going to put one of these lottery type hunts down as their first choice in the hopes of drawing a NR random tag in the 1-2 drawing pass...

Horniac
 

WapitiBob

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Mar 1, 2011
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Bend, Orygun
The elk/antelope book isn't the full regulations. Those will be printed later. I posted exact language back in November in the "az draw changes" thread.
 

Alabama

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Feb 18, 2013
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Sweet Home Alabama
The elk/antelope book isn't the full regulations. Those will be printed later. I posted exact language back in November in the "az draw changes" thread.
Is the $5 point saver option that allows you to turn in your tag and keep points plus gain 1 for that year also true? It's not in the antelope/elk regs but I've heard it will be implemented this year too.