Ergo my thought that a holder of 10+ points may just want to watch for a couple years. But that may end up being just wasted time and $. The guy who does Oregon Tag Draw Percentages has developed an algorithm which takes fall out into consideration. Not perfect, but does address it to a degree. Would not work in WY I suspect because of the likely change in behavior due to the rule change. However, once the dust settles, a similar calculation could give a high confidence years to draw number a few years after any change. I have no idea or inclination to try to develop a formula. But I understand the concept well enough to know there is a glimmer of hope if the rule change drives a major change in draw strategy for enough people. Only other rational strategy I can see, unless you are very near being a top point holder, is for the very young to just outlast the herd.I didn't figure any sort of fallout rate as that's a total crap shoot. Undoubtedly, there would be a bunch of people that would cut their losses in the next couple years, but at the same time we'd see a different application strategy from some of the top point groups flooding the draw as well.
Very frustrating situation for NR's, should the law change. I am lucky, my family drew a Moose and a Sheep tag in WY last year, so we had planned to be done with WY points for both. I understand WY resident frustration, when a NR can draw a tag easier than a resident in some cases. Were that happening to me, I'd be wanting change.