Really depends on how bad you want the tag. If I read the reports right, last year 0 preference points drew over 81%, then in the random draw odds were just under 64%. Your odds with 0 points in the regular draw are something around 93% considering both chances, points and random draws. If you pay for a special tag, and demand is at all close to last year, you have the tag. If not drawing is a huge deal, pay special prices, otherwise pay regular prices and in all likely hood get the tag.
That's my 2 cents, but I am no expert on all the exact ins and outs of the draws, so hopefully some of the members who know this stuff better than I do can validate or correct me.