I’m in a similar situation, I applied with 4 points for a second season tag that the last couple years has been around 50% with 3 points. I’m not overly optimistic but there’s a chance.I put in for 67, 2nd season with 5 points as a NR. It was an 88% chance with 3 last year and they are increasing tags this year so I'm hoping I sneak in!
I bet you are correct that early season tags will stay same or in some cases drop. Wouldn’t surprise me if there is also a pause in elk point creep this year.I'm in for an early rifle deer tag that I could've drawn by the skin of my teeth last year. I'm hoping that the later season dates in 2nd/3rd/4th shift some demand away from the earlier hunts, or at least keeps the odds somewhat constant.