So I'm putting together my plan for this year's application, which will be the first time I've ever applied for any western state hunt. The 2 main tools I'm using for comparing draw odds for different hunts are hunterstrailhead.com and the MRS section of Eastmans. I'm noticing drastic differences in the odds for multiple hunts and I'm curious if anyone knows why they might differ so much between the 2 sources. Any info or advice you guys might have would be greatly appreciated b/c right now, my application plans would be very different depending on which source I based the odds off of. Thanks.
NM MRS Draw Odds Question
- Thread starter Ltsheets
- Start date
Umpqua Hunter
Veteran member
Though they aren't perfect Hunterstrailhead has the most accurate published draw odds out there. Most sources don't account that you have to consider that all three hunt choices are valid in New Mexico. Hunterstrailhead takes that into account.
WapitiBob
Veteran member
The MRS doesn't list odds for NM. They list 1st choice success which is misleading. For NM you need to look at your chosen hunts and see how the choices were drawn. Many are filled with 1st, some are filled as 2nd or 3rd choices. Adding all three choices to get odds is a "worst case" scenario.
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Musket Man
Veteran member
WapitiBob
Veteran member
Save your money and d/l the NM odds yourself. Download the excel spreadsheet too and make your own calculations.
JEandAsGuide
Active Member
As all ready said you have to add all applicants with the unit as a 1st, 2nd or 3rd choice. If you are a NR DIYer, don't forget to multiply the tag quota by .06. Divide that number by the total applicants and that should be your true odds.
Eberle
Veteran member
D.Turvey Jr
Eastmans' Staff / Moderator
Statistically speaking your chances of drawing a second or third choice are very slim on most species with a few exceptions with antelope. So to avoid printing a bunch of zero's and providing you information that's useless (for the most part), we only provide the 1st choice applicant success. I hope this helps and good luck in the draws.