I am looking at the last three years of draw odds for an area/species and seeing the total quota increase, as well as the PP required to draw. The area doesn't allocate a lot of tags to begin with, but can I infer that the population and/or quality is increasing based on these numbers? I realize that the point creep may simply be individuals deciding to jump in. I guess I am trying to figure out how to interpret this data?
Draw Odds Question
- Thread starter siwulat
- Start date
Hilltop
Veteran member
Quotas are typically based on population so increased quota typically means the population has increased. Increased PP for an area isn't always an indicator of increased quality. Many areas saw a jump when Wyoming changed the application dates. One area I know jumped 3 points for a particular species. The was for an antlerless tag so obviously nothing to do with quality. To answer herd size and age questions, I would turn to a biologist for the area. I believe this information would be more reliable. Good luck and kudos for doing your homework- It typically pays off.
Horsenhike
Very Active Member
It can be a bit of a guessing game. It was explained to me that rather than a specific set of changes, most areas follow a general trend.
Make a guess, apply for what you want, and have a backup plan. Good luck.
Make a guess, apply for what you want, and have a backup plan. Good luck.
Umpqua Hunter
Veteran member
Point creep is largely occurring statewide at some level. As guys realize they can't catch certain units they jump into lower point units.
shootbrownelk
Veteran member
More and more hunters applying and fewer tags issued. There are not enough animals to keep up with growing demand. JMO
Colorado Cowboy
Super Moderator
There is a deer unit that I have been trying to draw for about 8 or 9 years with no luck. I have max points so I am at the top of the list. The problem is the number if tags each year for NRs, which is always less than 10. The odds of drawing a tag with max points in the regular & special tags is around 1%. I really want to hunt the unit as I have seen some really great buck deer there over the years, BUT I will be looking elsewhere as I have decided it is not worth waiting. UH is right...so I am going to another unit.
Welcome to the fallacy of point systems...10 years wasted chasing a tag.
The odds of actually killing a big deer are much higher when you have a tag, get out in the woods, and hunt. Or chase the "top" units for 10 years while riding the pine...
The very reason I have 3-4 hunts/units I can do annually to at least once per 3 years or so, if I want. Allows me to be in the woods, and to hunt the same place often, which is an often overlooked way to get nice bucks. Then I can still dream and chase several so called "top" units, which I do. Best of both worlds if time and $ allow, IMO. Three of my 5 best mulies to date have come from these easy to draw areas, and plenty of very nice mature ones too.
Colorado Cowboy
Super Moderator
The particular unit in Wyoming I keep trying to draw a deer tag in, is the same one I like to hunt antelope in. I have seen some really great buck deer there. There really aren't very many deer, this is probably why there are so few tags. Having hunted it so many times over the years I know exactly where the deer will be, see them every time I am there. I only hunt Wyoming every 3 years or so, Colorado the rest of the time, so I do get to hunt deer about every other year.
lostinOregon
Member
Everyone started out in the max point pool. A majority have drawn and are now jumping back in and cashing in points at lower levels. You will continue to see point creep as most people who understand the process know that the top tags for deer, elk and antelope are likely a once in a lifetime deal unless you are a young man. I see this playing out most in antelope and somewhat in deer with folks looking at region G tags as their second rodeo. Antelope tags were reduced for the last few years and that hasn't helped but expect more creep.
Rich
Rich
Thanks for the info guys. Understanding the draw process is one thing. Correctly interpreting the data available is another!
Lots of top point pools are years from clearing. Over 1600 NR in the top 2 point pools for pronghorn. Right around 4,000 in the top point pools for deer and elk.
The middle of the pack is really jammed up....no mans land. Too many to burn on a lower tier hunt, decades from the best units.
https://wgfd.wyo.gov/WGFD/media/content/PDF/Hunting/TOTAL_PREF_POINTS_EDA.pdf
The middle of the pack is really jammed up....no mans land. Too many to burn on a lower tier hunt, decades from the best units.
https://wgfd.wyo.gov/WGFD/media/content/PDF/Hunting/TOTAL_PREF_POINTS_EDA.pdf
Not true, kids that weren't hunting age in 2006-present never started out in the max point pool. Neither did anyone else that started hunting/applying in 2007 or later.
They may eventually find themselves in a max point pool, but they never started out in the max point pool.
Another fallacy of the point schemes, the assumption that everyone is on "equal" footing under a point system...not true, at all.
shootbrownelk
Veteran member
lostinOregon
Member
Buzz,
I meant generally and wasn't speaking about everyone beginning in the max point pool. I think it is pretty obvious if you were 10 at the time the points started you were not eligible. I should have known not to post with you in the conversation.
Rich
I meant generally and wasn't speaking about everyone beginning in the max point pool. I think it is pretty obvious if you were 10 at the time the points started you were not eligible. I should have known not to post with you in the conversation.
Rich
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