I have 11 Colorado Elk Pref Points and I'm considering applying to hunt with a rifle in Area 61. Does anyone have any advice on which Rifle Season would be best in Area 61?
1st season... I haven't looked to see if you have enough points but IMO 1st is the best rifle season.Sorry guys, I'm a Resident
Thanks for all the GREAT info!!If the draw trend continues this year, like the past five years, you will probably have a 30% to 50% chance to draw the first rifle season this year due to point creep.
Here is the historical draw odds for Unit 61 rifle, first rifle season for residents:
2009: 42% with 9 points (you would have had 6 points)
2010: 11% with 9 points (you would have had 7 points)
2011: 49% with 10 points (you would have had 8 points)
2012: 5% draw with 10 points (you would have had 9 points)
2013: 79% draw with 11 points (you would have had 10 points)
2014: I'd estimate around 30-50% draw with 11 points (you will have 11 points)
You should have no problem drawing the 2nd, 3rd, or 4th season since they typically take 5 less points to draw, which also gives you a good idea that the 1st season is the rifle hunt most in demand.
Interestingly the success rates tend to run the highest on the later rifle seasons. Here are success rates 2008-2012:
1st rifle: 60%, 73%, 55%, 68%, 57% = 63% average success
2nd rifle: 49%, 65%, 69%, 83%, 77% = 69% average success
3rd rifle: 50%, 62%, 87%, 91%, 70% = 72% average success
4th rifle: 89%, 82%, 50%, 85%, 46% = 70% average success
The advantage you have with the 2nd and 3rd rifle season is more hunt days which is likely what helps the higher success rates.
1st season: Oct 11-15 (5 days)
2nd season: Oct 18-26 (9 days)
3rd season: Nov 1-9 (9 days)
4th season Nov 12-16 (5 days)
An advantage to the 1st rifle season is there is typically 30% fewer tags than on the later seasons.
(source for statistics, Hunter's Trailhead)