AZ NR draw ? (5/5 allocation)

Doe Nob

Very Active Member
Feb 21, 2011
565
0
Houston, TX
So as stated in the MRS, there's a 10% cap on NR tags. The state to give everyone a better chance is now going to reserve 5% of NR tags for the Bonus point draw and 5% for the random draw. In every hunt category EXCEPT sheep and bison, the cap is by individual hunt.

So - my question is on hunts with less than 20 tags. How do they round?

Take for instance elk 23 south archery. There are 15 tags allocated. One gets set aside for the bonus point draw. Then there's 1/2 a tag left for the random. Does that tag exist or do they round down? I'm assuming if a NR hit the tag and there was 1/2 a tag left they'd get it, but that's an assumption.

An even more important question arises looking at the Pronghorn draw. Several units have 10 tags. So they set one tag aside for the bonus point draw, after that is drawn there are zero tags left for the random draw because the cap has already been met. So any NR applying for a unit with less than 10 tags and less than max points has zero chance and is throwing away money. (possibly less than 20 depending on how the state treats partial tags)

Please confirm if that's right or correct me where I'm wrong.

Thanks!
 

dirtytough

Member
Feb 15, 2012
56
0
Washington
I think your wrong on most of it. If a unit has less then 20 tags then only one tag will be available and it will be in the 1-2 pass. Random basically. Not the bonus pass. The language states something like "no more then 50% of non res tags available in the bonus pass" also it states "up to 10% of tags available to non res".
 

Doe Nob

Very Active Member
Feb 21, 2011
565
0
Houston, TX
Dirty has it.
The 1-2 pass could have 5% or the full 10%, depends on what happens in the bonus pass.
WOW that REALLY screws over the point holders. So any unit with LESS than 20 tags (maybe 15) you CAN'T draw on points, only as random? That seems insane, how is everyone with more than a half dozen points not irate about this?
 

Fink

Veteran member
Apr 7, 2011
1,961
201
West Side, MoMo
WOW that REALLY screws over the point holders. So any unit with LESS than 20 tags (maybe 15) you CAN'T draw on points, only as random? That seems insane, how is everyone with more than a half dozen points not irate about this?
I think they are.. Fortunately for the state, there's way more of us that don't have a decades worth of points.
 

Tim McCoy

Veteran member
Dec 15, 2014
1,855
4
Oregon
WOW that REALLY screws over the point holders. So any unit with LESS than 20 tags (maybe 15) you CAN'T draw on points, only as random? That seems insane, how is everyone with more than a half dozen points not irate about this?
Irate does not even begin to describe it. You go from knowing you will be able to hunt the Strip for Mule Deer, guaranteed, in 5-10 years, to who the hell knows. Quite the nice reward for my $ loyalty to AZGFD.
 

Hycntryhtr

Member
Feb 22, 2014
145
0
north colorado
If it's less than 20 tags.. Pretty sure point holders are going to beat out random. But I have seen 10yr olds draw sheep tags on their first time putting in. It's like the lotto can't win if you don't play. You'll draw eventually, just make sure you really want to hunt that tag. A 23 south or 23 hunt in general is worth the wait. One of the biggest bulls I've ever seen was in 23 along with 7 others that were 350 to 380. 18 yrs for a non res to draw that tag. Best hunt next to unit 9 in the state.
 

WapitiBob

Veteran member
Mar 1, 2011
1,365
38
Bend, Orygun
A 20 tag hunt code has "up to" 1 tag a NR can draw. A NR can not draw that tag in the Bonus Pass. Because AZ is a Bonus Point state, the more points an applicant has, the greater their advantage will be in the 1-2 Pass but the nr quota is not guaranteed.
 

Umpqua Hunter

Veteran member
May 26, 2011
3,564
63
58
North Umpqua, Oregon
I really try to keep my comments on here positive and constructive, but I'd sure like to know who to thank at AZGFD for this wonderful change. After sending in an estimated $8K in license and app fees for myself (24 years) my wife (6 years) and my six kids (4 to 11 years of apps) we were in position for several good tags. Now....they have SUBSTANTIALLY changed the rules that we paid into. AZGFD originally created a bonus draw system, sold points to position yourself in that system, then 25 years later decides to change things up to give applicants with less points low lottery type odds at the best tags. Several tags my family and I were hot on the trail of have now just vanished (as in Unit 23 archery as was mentioned earlier) or are now several more years out.

The best analogy I can come up with is an investment company that collects your money for many years with an expected payout at a future date. Then when you were on the verge of collecting on your investment they say "I'm sorry you now need to pay in several more years before claiming your benefits. We have decided to give half of what you were going to collect and give it in a lottery to a small number of our newer investors to keep them interested. You now need to pay in several more years in order to collect on your investment." If a private company did that, they would soon be hit with numerous legal actions.

Even if they would have kept 7% or 8% of the tags in the bonus pass it would have been FAR more palatable and given everyone a shot at the tags.

For the record I have drawn ONE elk tag (Unit 9 archery on a brutal drought year, one elk in bow range) and no sheep, antelope of deer tags under the point system. I now have:

Deer: 19 points (max possible). I've gone from drawing a Strip tag in the next 15 years or so (before I turn 70) to potentially 30 years.

Sheep: 26 points...and counting.

Elk: 17 points. I was closing in on a couple tags, one is off the table, the other has moved out several years.

Antelope: 26 points. By simply having no nonresidents with more points or equal points I can still draw the tag I am after when I decide to draw it.
 
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NE69

Active Member
Jan 6, 2013
375
58
63
Southwest Nebraska
ALL POINT SYSTEMS WILL HAVE AN UGLY ENDING. I just don't see any other way for them to turn out in the end for a high majority of the hunters in it. Sorry UH that is a lot of investment in time also.
 

dirtytough

Member
Feb 15, 2012
56
0
Washington
I really try to keep my comments on here positive and constructive, but I'd sure like to know who to thank at AZGFD for this wonderful change. After sending in an estimated $8K in license and app fees for myself (24 years) my wife (6 years) and my six kids (4 to 11 years of apps) we were in position for several good tags. Now....they have now SUBSTANTIALLY changed the rules that we paid into. AZGFD originally created a bonus draw system, sold points to position yourself in that system, then 25 years later decides to change things up to give applicants with less points low lottery type odds at the best tags. Several tags my family and I were hot on the trail of have now just vanished (as in Unit 23 archery as was mentioned earlier) or are now several more years out.

The best analogy I can come up with is an investment company that collects your money for many years with an expected payout at a future date. Then when you were on the verge of collecting on your investment they say "I'm sorry you now need to pay in several more years before claiming your benefits. We have decided to give half of what you were going to collect and give it in a lottery to a small number of our newer investors to keep them interested. You now need to pay in several more years in order to collect on your investment." If a private company did that, they would soon be hit with numerous legal actions.

Even if they would have kept 7% or 8% of the tags in the bonus pass it would have been FAR more palatable and given everyone a shot at the tags.

For the record I have drawn ONE elk tag (Unit 9 archery on a brutal drought year, one elk in bow range) and no sheep, antelope of deer tags under the point system. I now have:

Deer: 19 points (max possible). I've gone from drawing a Strip tag in the next 15 years or so (before I turn 70) to potentially 30 years.

Sheep: 26 points...and counting.

Elk: 17 points. I was closing in on a couple tags, one is off the table, the other has moved out several years.

Antelope: 26 points. By simply having no nonresidents with more points or equal points I can still draw the tag I am after when I decide to draw it.
I would probably be pissed to if I had the points you do. But you said it. AZ created a bonus point system. Not a preference point system. And the system that's been in place the last 20+ years turned into a preference point system.
 

WapitiBob

Veteran member
Mar 1, 2011
1,365
38
Bend, Orygun
How do you equate the az draw with a pp system? I see that reference a lot but believe it's an incorrect analogy.

The only difference between a pp system and a bonus point system, by their very nature is the allocation of random numbers; either a single chance for a random number or multiple chances.
The allocation of tags is a different function of the draw, ie 20/80 AZ, 50/50 UT, 75/25 OR-WY.
 
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Tim McCoy

Veteran member
Dec 15, 2014
1,855
4
Oregon
How do you equate the az draw with a pp system? I see that reference a lot but believe it's an incorrect analogy.

The only difference between a pp system and a bonus point system, by their very nature is the allocation of random numbers; either a single chance for a random number or multiple chances.
The allocation of tags is a different function of the draw, ie 20/80 AZ, 50/50 UT, 75/25 OR-WY.
I've always thought it a good analogy. But I suppose I could be off base. Does not the part of the AZ draw that gives a small percent of the tags to those with the most points effectively function like a PP draw? Seems it does to me. The difference between a BP and PP is not just the assignment of a random number (s), it is most importantly to me in the seniority aspect of the PP, most points wins. My understanding anyway.
 

WapitiBob

Veteran member
Mar 1, 2011
1,365
38
Bend, Orygun
Oregon is a PP system, 75% to max point holders, 25% to all others.
Wyoming is a PP system, 75% to max point holders, 25% to all others.
AZ is a Bonus point system, 20% to max point holders, 80% to all others.
Utah is a Bonus Point system, 50% to max point holders, 50% to all others.

For the draws listed above, all of them sort by points, per hunt code, for the "points" portion of their draw so "most points win" under either system. They're identical in that respect. The difference is how many chances they had to get a low number.
For the "random" side they also work the same. They're sorted by random number without regard to points. Again, the difference being how many chances they had at getting a low number.
The benefit of a Bonus Point system is in the random side where you have multiple chances at the low number, giving a high pointed app a weighted advantage.

By all others I mean the remaining applicants that didn't draw a tag.
 
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Zim

Very Active Member
Feb 28, 2011
733
55
LaPorte, IN
ALL POINT SYSTEMS WILL HAVE AN UGLY ENDING. I just don't see any other way for them to turn out in the end for a high majority of the hunters in it. Sorry UH that is a lot of investment in time also.
Yup. It's far too tempting for legislators to screw the minority constituents that are us high point holders, especially nonresidents! I don't necessarily think all point systems will end, but definitely the preference portion of their formulas. Those that split the tags pref/bonus will drift more heavily to the bonus side. WY kicked around their 75/25% for years scaring me to burn my moose points early a few years ago. That will go to 50/50 someday. Then 75/25. Then they'll just leave one tag per hunt for pref, the rest bonus. Whatever it takes to make more money for the state. It's just far easier for them to steal from sitting ducks, than to be ethical.

Sorry for both of us UH. But you are worse. Those in your point pool and nearby are all going to be bailing on AZ unit 9 for elk now, to unit 1. So we are giving up on that unit scouring for scraps below. AZ had a good system in place that resulted in the lowest point creep out west, and good lower tier units like 6 a guy could draw with low points. That's all over with now. It's going to be a free for all the next couple years while this all shakes out.
 

BOHNTR

Very Active Member
Feb 28, 2011
618
286
Lakeside, AZ
I wish Arizona would have stayed with its original bonus point system........for those that remember if you were not drawn, you earned a point for next years drawing. There was no % set aside for those with the most points.......just a simple lottery type drawing. Those with more points increased their odds of the computer assigning them a lower number to draw. EVERYONE had a chance.
 

Fink

Veteran member
Apr 7, 2011
1,961
201
West Side, MoMo
For those of you with 20+ points...... At least you were lucky enough to get in on the ground floor? It's pretty disappointing to start off 20+ points behind, in every state but New Mexico and Idaho.
 
I fully understand that rule changes are frustrating, and I would prefer not to see them happen myself. However, there is another side to the story. I'm new to the points game, but I've been doing my research to decide where it would be best to start.

What's the word on Arizona? World-class hunting for deer, elk, antelope, and sheep. Sounds like a no-brainer. There is a non-refundable license, so now it's over $200 a year for four apps/points. And what? Some of these world-class tags only get offered every other year? All the really good tags go the high point holders, and I'm 20 points behind the top of the board? Would be nice, but I can't see the value. Hey, I have three kids. They can get a $5 license. How about that to get them off to a good start? Well, you know what they say about cute little puppies growing up to be big ugly dogs. Down the road I'll be on the hook for $700 bucks a year (plus fee increases) if I start that. I bought my daughter a deer and sheep point last spring, but I think I'm going to let them go.

My point is you can't run a business if you can't pull in new customers. And this change probably won't change my mind. For what it's worth.... :)

QQ
 

Tim McCoy

Veteran member
Dec 15, 2014
1,855
4
Oregon
...For the draws listed above, all of them sort by points, per hunt code, for the "points" portion of their draw so "most points win" under either system. They're identical in that respect...

Ergo the analogy many use to describe that part of AZ and others as working like a PP system, just that part. It helps some folks understand it, say vs a straight BP draw like NV is I think. So when helping someone understand NV vs AZ, the analogy becomes helpful and I think that is why you see it used. The "points" portion in AZ is comparable to the OR/WY PP points portion in significant respects, leading to the PP comparison. It is that "most points wins" aspect where the analogy is commonly used to help people understand how it works in general terms for that part of the draw. So despite it not being an exact match to the inner workings, it helps explain what is probably better described as a hybrid system in AZ, for one part of the draw, me thinks anyway.