I've used a similar example before, and I'll do it again here.
Let's first assume things go on as they are and nothing changed. Today, applying for sheep very roughly averages $150 for each 0.5% chance to draw, and that is a generous scenario. It is probably more $150 for every 0.3 % chance to draw. That means you will need to invest in around 200 applications to draw. You will have had $30,000 invested to statistically have a chance to draw. Add to that $2,000 for a tag, which brings you to $32,000. After investing years and thousands of dollars in applying and realizing they will likely never draw again, many guys don't want to wast the opportunity and then invest another $8,000 or so for a guide. Now you have $40,000 invested.
I've been doing the multi-state sheep apps for 30 years and have drawn 3 sheep tags and my immediate family has drawn 3 more sheep tags. I've also applied my kids for years. In recent years I have dropped all of their Wyoming sheep and moose points. The only out-of-state place my kids are still applying for sheep is Arizona, and that is because the are going for an elk tag, and it's only another $15 a year to apply for sheep. They also apply in our home state because it is 8 bucks. Two of my family's three tags came on those cheap apps.
That brings up another point. If your primary reason to apply in a state is for a species you will draw…say like elk, and there is low cost to throw your name in the hat for sheep…go for it. But don't plan on it.
The alternative to buying points….save, earn interest on your money and go Dall sheep hunting.
To begin apply for sheep today in states with points is pretty similar to buying lottery tickets as a means of financial planning. The proven method to gain wealth is to incrementally save and strategically invest.
Applying for sheep today is no where near the same situation it was 15 years ago, or even 10 years ago. Everyone and their dog is jumping into the point game. When I started, applying for limited entry hunts was definitely the way to go for great hunts.
I believe limited entry hunt applications have similar dynamics to the stock market. Jumping in now is like jumping in when the market is near the peak. I strongly suspect we are nearing a peak and waiting for the crash, when draw systems are changed and points are devalued. I personally am very leery and developing an aggressive plan to burn points. I would not jump in thinking things are going to be the same 10-15 years from now.