Thanks Mike. That's the info I was looking at.
I would have had a 62% chance for the Type 1 tag last year with my points. 10 of the 16 people drew with 6 points. Assuming all 6 that didn't draw apply again this year, 12 more people would have jump into the game this year at 7 or more points for it not to be 100% draw odds again at the 7 point level. I guess it could happen, but I feel pretty good about getting that tag with 7 points this year. That said, I don't follow the points game in WY quite as close as you do, so I may defer to you on that one.... but from where I look, it looks pretty good.
Same deal with the type 9 tag in the regular draw. I basically just assumed (maybe that's my first mistake) that since everyone with less than 7 points drew last year, even if all the people that applied with 6 this year did so again next year, the odds would be at least pretty decent of drawing the tag.
Between the 2 scenarios, I have more confidence in the Type 1 Special draw, but know these things can vary from year to year.
I don't know how you can make that statement when the stats for 2014 for unit 45 were as follows:
Type 1 Regular Draw-7PPs was only a 42.86% chance
Type 1 Special Draw -6PPs was only a 62.5% chance
Type 9 Regular Draw- <7PPs was 100% but 6PPs was 0 chance
Type 9 Special Draw -6PPs was only an 80% chance