Was I really in the draw?

[Musket Man]

I have joked many times that Nevada doesnt even put me in the draw, they just sell me a license, charge me app fees, and send a letter that says I was unsuccessful, but this has me wondering if it is true. Last year I did not show up at all in the bonus point data for atleast 2 deer hunts I applied for. I know this because I had 3 points and 1 of them shows no successful or unsuccessful applicants with 3 points and another shows 1 successful applicant with 3 points and I was unsuccessful. My other choices had successful and unsuccessful applicants so its hard to tell on them. With NV's system of going through all 5 of your choices when your number comes up your application should show up in the BP data no matter what choice it is so Im not quite sure what to make of this.

 

[Umpqua Hunter]

You only show up in the bonus point report for your first choice on the application. Draw odds therefore are far worse than they appear on the surface.

 

[Musket Man]

Say you drew your 5th choice, how could it not show up since all successfully drawn applicants are shown there, or atleast there are as many successful applicants as available tags shown.

 

[Umpqua Hunter]

They enter the point level of all tags drawn regardless of the choice it was. Recall I have 21 deer points, and only my first choice showed up last year.

 

[Umpqua Hunter]

There is no good way to calculate draw odds in Nevada. I do a rough estimate of draw odds. I divide the published odds by five (since applicants can apply for five choices) and consider that roughly the odds to draw that given hunt. I then add the odds of all the choices I applied for. Again, a very rough estimate.

 

[Musket Man]

So the application shows up if its successful but only 1st shows up if its unsuccessful? I figured the best way to figure draw odds was by how many points other applicants had compared to how many you had. Tags vs applicants means nothing since the # of applications in the draw is really BP squared and if tags vs apps is 1-5 it is completely different odds if most applicants have 15+ points and you have 4 then if you have 4 and so does everyone else.

 

[Ikeepitcold]

Ya well join the rest of us including the res. Supposedly I'm guarantied a cow elk tag since I have 4 freakin points! I was also guarantied a Wy antelope tag last year too. Hummmmmm I don't have any meat in my freezer and I got a point last year.

 

[Musket Man]

I agree points are not very filling. lol I didnt draw anything anywhere last year either. Hunted a leftover antelope tag and otc deer tag! I think Im only going to put a 1st choice in NV this year. Have deer and antelope figured out, still working on elk. Figure i will select 1 area with decent draw odds and stick with it till I draw.

 

[velvetfvr]

Ya well join the rest of us including the res. Supposedly I'm guarantied a cow elk tag since I have 4 freakin points! I was also guarantied a Wy antelope tag last year too. Hummmmmm I don't have any meat in my freezer and I got a point last year.

That really sucks because my grandpa got a call from ndow last year, before the season started, and wanted to see if he wanted a cow elk tag that was turned in LOL.

 

[Ikeepitcold]

I agree points are not very filling. lol I didnt draw anything anywhere last year either. Hunted a leftover antelope tag and otc deer tag! I think Im only going to put a 1st choice in NV this year. Have deer and antelope figured out, still working on elk. Figure i will select 1 area with decent draw odds and stick with it till I draw.

For Elk I would really look at the draw odds. I don't look at non res much but I can help with where the herds are. When you get it narrowed down PM me.

 

[Musket Man]

Im not going to believe NV actually put me in their draw until I actually draw a tag there! lol

 

[nitis]

To OP

The reason as previously touched on that you don't see all that you think you should see is the bonus point data shows numbers for the applicants who listed said hunt as their first choice as well as people who actually drew that tag regardless of what choice it was.

So 1000 people could list it as their first choice but if there are 10 tags it could show 1010 applicants since maybe no one who actually drew listed it as a first choice

 

[Musket Man]

It sounds like this is NV's way of not letting us see how bad the draw odds really are.

 

[Umpqua Hunter]

It sounds like this is NV's way of not letting us see how bad the draw odds really are.

Not many states do let you know how bad the odds are.

Since only the first choice draw odds are shown, it is obvious that most people are going to pick one of the top hunts (like a "late" deer hunt) as their first choice, then fan out from there. That means a hunt that appears to have very good draw odds may intact have horrible draw odds, because few people would burn a first choice on it, but would use a later choice on it. In theory it would be possible for a hunt to show 10 applicants (first choice) and actually have 1000 applicants in total.

 

[Musket Man]

So what you are saying is the 1-10 odds I figured I have based on my points and everyone elses points that didnt draw last year based on whats shoen in the BP data is really around 1-50. It seems to me if they just gave you 1 choice and drew all 1st choices first like other states the draw odds would be alot better. I think the more I learn about the NV draw the less I know. lol

 

[Umpqua Hunter]

So what you are saying is the 1-10 odds I figured I have based on my points and everyone elses points that didnt draw last year based on whats shoen in the BP data is really around 1-50. It seems to me if they just gave you 1 choice and drew all 1st choices first like other states the draw odds would be alot better. I think the more I learn about the NV draw the less I know. lol

There is no way to know what the draw odds are. I just use the 5 times divider as an estimate. Remember your odds are worse than you thought on your first choice, but you do have the leverage of 5 choices.

And I tend to think very few applicants really understand the draw systems they are in and what it takes to win. Big magazines have thrived on presenting simple odds and creating "hope" when reality is much more bleak.

If a person is not savvy in their application strategy they are just gambling.

 

[Musket Man]

Its hard to have a strategy in NV because anything can happen with their system and there is nothing predictable about it at all. All you can do is apply and see what happens. I have decided to apply for some less popular units in northern NV since they are closer and odds should be a little better.

 

[MSUcat61]

This whole deal that only the unsuccessful 1st choice applicants show up in the bonus point data is really frustrating. Though, even if the rest were listed, I still don't know if I could come up with a reliable way to calculate the true odds. It comes down to the fact that Nevada draws the hunter and not the unit first. Not everyone will use all five choices either, which complicates things a bit. I feel like soliciting the services of a PhD in statistics is in order. Maybe listing what choice the hunt was for successful draws would add some info? though probably not. Anyways, good luck drawing everyone

 

[Ikeepitcold]

The short answer MM is if you draw then yes you where in the draw.

 

[Musket Man]

The short answer MM is if you draw then yes you where in the draw.

Im going to keep applying until I find out