Understanding draw odds

[fez]

Does anyone else think Arizona draw odds are hard to figure out? Anyone that understands how to read them have any pointers for a newbie?

Im trying to figure out some odds for coues deer and Im getting my but kicked

Thanks

 

[Alabama]

The way the odds are posted now it makes it impossible to figure out NR odds. Sometimes the non-resident 10% quota is filled in the 20% max points pass, other times it's not. They don't post data for NR separately at this time but they will within the next 2 years. They are changing the draw up for NR next year where only 50% of the tags can be given out in 1st pass and 50% in 2nd pass.

I don't know what units you are looking at but I would say generally the earlier seasons will have tags left for the 2nd pass but later seasons will not, or will have fewer making your odds worse.

Hopefully that made it clear as mud. lol

 

[WapitiBob]

Fez, sorry, your pm got lost in the void between my ears.
I don't deer hunt in AZ and therefor don't get the reports needed to answer your questions. The dept will have new draw reports coming out that will have the info you need. I was told they would be out by now but obviously that hasn't happened.

 

[Zim]

Ya pretty much everything will change in the next year or so. I wouldn't waste your time trying to figure things out now. On top of all this, the points required for hunts this year is turned upside down because everyone is dropping down a unit in quality to burn points prior to the 50/50 change.

 

[fez]

Thanks for the responses.

Is this 50/50 changing for the 2016 season? Will it turn into more of a preferance/bonus point hybrid system where 50% of tags go to highest point holders then the other 50% goes random?

 

[Alabama]

Yeah up to 50% will go to NR with the most points in the 1st pass and 50% in the 2nd pass. The 2nd pass won't be random you will have 1 extra chance for every year that you apply, but everyone still has a chance.

 

[fez]

Thanks guys

 

[Thomas11]

I think this will be a welcomed change for NR, as it will give everyone at least some chance at drawing a premium tag if they apply. As it stands there are only a handful of elk tags u can draw as a NR in the random draw now because most get filled in the bonus pass. Although I'm sure most of the NR with lots of bonus PT's will feel differently.

 

[Zim]

I would not mind the change as long as us high point holders are allowed to burn our current points first. How novel would it be to for a state to make simple point systems and stick to them? Instead the only sticking it they do is to their prior point buyers.

Congrats New Hampshire for being the last ethical point state standing.

 

[brooks]

I'm like you Zim. I have a lot of points and now they are thinking about changing after buying points and a non res license every year for 12 years plus the expense of going to AZ to take the non res hunter ed. I should have drawn this year but I'm seeing where guys put in and drew units with 16 points or so that they could have draw with 11 or 12 last year. I'm only hoping that next year a lot of the higher point holders will be out of the way because of drawing this year. In to deep to quit now. If I ever draw it will be... one and done with AZ. They increase the price and change the rules as they go. Just getting fed up with the BS !

 

[Zim]

Does anyone know the status of that AZ suggestion/legislation to change the draw system for 2016? I have not been on the forums much this summer.

 

[micropterus79]

Might have to wait until the 2016-2017 regs are published to know for sure...I sure didn't see anything on the AZFG website that popped out.

I must say, and I mean this with the utmost sincerity and respect, I really do envy hunters that don't reside in the West but put up with the fees and the application BS every year to get a shot at a hunt that many (including myself) take for granted because we already live out here. It would be easy to fold and just say "screw it" but y'all don't. You stick with it, figure it out, and learn from mistakes. Pretty awesome.

 

[UB-AZ]

We all can have a gripe over NR hunting. It doesn't matter if it is everyone trying to hunt the west or the west going mid/east to hunt Whitetails/Turkey. Lets be honest.... as a NR of Iowa it cost me $550+ just to put in for Iowa deer. Now if I get drawn I have to pay a tresspass fee of some sort or pay for outfitter that paid for a lease. This is up in the $1000's. All midwest/eastern states are like that. Sure there are little ways here and there to go cheaper and hunt public land, but then so is everyone else and the deer quality just isn't there. Either way you look at it hunting is going to cost you if you choose to go out of your home state. There are some states that NR's can't even apply for specific species. Yes, AZ draw is difficult to understand and yes it may take a long, long, long time to draw as a resident or NR. Let's be understanding and happy to have that chance.

 

[WapitiBob]

Zims question was answered on another forum. For those here, the nr cap will be split 5% 5% between the bonus pass and the 1-2 pass, the 5% being "up to". Comment period closed today. When passed it will be in effect for the 2016 draw.

 

[Zim]

Zims question was answered on another forum. For those here, the nr cap will be split 5% 5% between the bonus pass and the 1-2 pass, the 5% being "up to". Comment period closed today. When passed it will be in effect for the 2016 draw.

Those aholes took my money for 15 years then pulled the rug out the year I'd have drawn my tag, adding 10 years to my wait. I don't mind waiting my turn, but being bait-N-switched is just plain unethical and the AZG&F commissioners are nothing but glorified criminals. This will give plenty justification to poach what was stolen from them.

 

[WapitiBob]

Commissioners have nothing to do with it, except for deciding to approve or not. It's an internal decision based on comments from their nr customers.

 

[Zim]

Commissioners have nothing to do with it, except for deciding to approve or not. It's an internal decision based on comments from their nr customers.

In all my 20 years of applying I have never once seen any state decide their nonresident draw systems based on what nonresidents think. Every one made "changes" based solely on money and greed. Nothing else.

 

[WapitiBob]

When nr say they will stop applying, their money comes into the picture. I believe that's the impetus behind the change.
Back in 2013 when I discussed the new draw report with head of the draw dept I asked about the loss of revenue from nr once they saw in writing that they were throwing their money away. I was then told of the 5% 5% split and its purpose was to keep that from happening.

 

[Thomas11]

I think it's a great change! But I drew an AZ tag this yr so I'd be in the random draw next yr. rules and laws are ever changing in every state. No one should expect game laws to never change. Rules and laws change every year in alabama depending on all sorts of criteria.

 

[Zim]

I think it's a great change! But I drew an AZ tag this yr so I'd be in the random draw next yr. rules and laws are ever changing in every state. No one should expect game laws to never change. Rules and laws change every year in alabama depending on all sorts of criteria.

Phenomenally selfish attitude. If you waited 15 years like I did you would be thoroughly pissed that you were thrown under the AZ bus, especially if you had played a key role in ridding their state of the cancer that AZSFW & HB2072 was. Have you done anything lately to prevent legislation attacking the NAMWC in the states where you apply or elsewhere?

If a guy in private industry tried to do this AZ bait-n-switching he'd be thrown in jail. It's totally unethical and should be illegal. There's plenty of ways to morph their system without a totally screwing the most deserving sportsmen who waited the longest and paid the most.

Prior to when I began buying points 20+ years ago, never had I seen such past rampant screwing of sportsmen by the state's politicians. Otherwise, I'd never have bought into their what have become "snake oil schemes". Obviously, ethics are a thing of the past in most states now. It's no wonder so many have turned to poaching. The states policies are clearly promoting it!