It looks to be shaping up like 2018 in parts of the west. WY and MT look great though! It looks like it's going to be rough for norther NM, southern CO, and northern AZ if conditions don't improve. What are the local conditions looking like?
Uh Oh Drought...
- Thread starter Alabama
- Start date
Colorado Cowboy
Super Moderator
Hilltop
Veteran member
nice! only mild drought where I live and hunt .pretty much just an average year.
such charts are fun to look at but the truth is we haven't even mastered weather forcasts a few days out . why would anyone put stock in a forecast that is months out?????????
only thing that is a sure bet is, some of these areas the chart will be correct and some of the areas it will not.
such charts are fun to look at but the truth is we haven't even mastered weather forcasts a few days out . why would anyone put stock in a forecast that is months out?????????
only thing that is a sure bet is, some of these areas the chart will be correct and some of the areas it will not.
Colorado Cowboy
Super Moderator
There is no source either.
I question the forecast for SW Colorado. We are on track for 3 years in a row of normal snowfall. Last year the only problem was our normal monsoon season during the summer, which was less than normal. Our local reservoirs are forecast to be full and we are looking at a full irrigation season.
I question the forecast for SW Colorado. We are on track for 3 years in a row of normal snowfall. Last year the only problem was our normal monsoon season during the summer, which was less than normal. Our local reservoirs are forecast to be full and we are looking at a full irrigation season.
JimP
Administrator
Here is a article that I saw on MSN talking about it. They claim that it is man made due to climate change.
Anything to push their agenda
https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/the-western-us-is-locked-in-the-grips-of-the-first-human-caused-megadrought-study-finds/ar-BB12JQ6V?li=BBnb7Kz
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Anything to push their agenda
https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/the-western-us-is-locked-in-the-grips-of-the-first-human-caused-megadrought-study-finds/ar-BB12JQ6V?li=BBnb7Kz
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LOL. of coarse it is . thankfully the 19 has reared it's head to save us all!
less people = less warming
everyone sick and quarantined = less emissions
added benefits...
less old people = less burden on SS and Medicaid/care
depressed economy = crazy joe might have a chance this fall
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Hilltop
Veteran member
This isn't a forecast. It is showing conditions based on precipitation already received as of 4/16/2020. Here is the link ; https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
Colorado Cowboy
Super Moderator
HuskyMusky
Veteran member
Hilltop
Veteran member
No. Each area is compared to that specific areas historical average. It will only reflect colors (show drought) when the actual moisture received goes well below average for that area. Much of Wyoming only get 10-15" of precipitation a year but it is showing white right now since most of the state is at or above average precipitation for the year.
HuskyMusky
Veteran member
I've also checked those charts and they may be nice say in jan feb march and then come mid summer its full on drought...
not sure when moisture matters more, or all season long....
Hilltop
Veteran member
This is an important time of year as far as moisture is concerned as many areas receive 1/3 - 1/2 of their yearly precipitation in a couple of months. For example, Laramie only receives 12.4" per year with 5" of it falling from late April through Late June. If an area has a below average spring, it's unlikely to make up ground during the other parts of the year. Typically dry springs = dry years.
JimP
Administrator
I wouldn't even start to worry about it until June.
I have seen spring storms come through and dump 2-3 foot of real wet snow in April and May. And I have seen it rain just about every day during July and August where I didn't even need to water my lawn.
I have seen spring storms come through and dump 2-3 foot of real wet snow in April and May. And I have seen it rain just about every day during July and August where I didn't even need to water my lawn.
JimP
Administrator
For those of you who are wondering how much snow there is at your favorite hunting area here is a web site that you can check it out.
I have no idea why Colorado doesn't have more sites than they have posted here.
www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov
I have no idea why Colorado doesn't have more sites than they have posted here.
NRCS National Water and Climate Center | Home
USA Snotel Station and Basin Map
This is a good link to bookmark if you like to geek out over precipitation data. You can see the raw data against historicals in any way you care to slice and dice.
Not sure where you get the statement that CO is "on track" for for 3 years in a row of normal snowfall. This past season we were at or JUST slightly above average. The year before that was great, nearly 150% of average in some spots. But the years before THAT were pretty terrible, so the 3-year and 5-year averages aren't great. If we hadn't gotten lucky last year we'd be way worse off.
You can choose what you want to see. For snowfall you want Snow Water Equivalent:
and then you can change the year you want to see further down:
This is a good link to bookmark if you like to geek out over precipitation data. You can see the raw data against historicals in any way you care to slice and dice.
Not sure where you get the statement that CO is "on track" for for 3 years in a row of normal snowfall. This past season we were at or JUST slightly above average. The year before that was great, nearly 150% of average in some spots. But the years before THAT were pretty terrible, so the 3-year and 5-year averages aren't great. If we hadn't gotten lucky last year we'd be way worse off.
You can choose what you want to see. For snowfall you want Snow Water Equivalent:
and then you can change the year you want to see further down:
Colorado Cowboy
Super Moderator
What I was referring to was the San Juans down in the 4 Corners region. That's where I live and that's where I hunt, so I watch it closely. I also irrigate all summer with the water from the winter snow.
Gotcha. We've got some land in the SDCR near Ft. Garland. I've been watching it closely because between the drought a few years back and that huge fire a year or so ago, it got hit pretty hard. Deer populations have missed targets every year for 5 years running and it's impossible to get a tag with less than like 6 points or more. We're hoping we see a rebound soon.
My bad guys, I should have posted a link. I assumed most everyone was familiar with the US drought monitor. It's a great tool for understanding drought conditions over a large area. Local conditions can vary greatly, it is more of 10,000 foot view rather than looking out the back door. Like hilltop said, it's not a forecast, it only uses historical data and it is tailored specifically to the local averages in precipitation.
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