Too quiet-Elk NR Deadline Bearing Down!

[Hilltop]

Point creep is real... Crazy how many people are applying for the special general elk tag.

Here is the year by year breakdown for special general;
2012 - 100% chance with zero points
2013 - 86.42% chance with zero points
2014 - 64.06% chance with zero points
2015 - 45.13% chance with zero points
2016 - 31.62% chance with zero points
2017 - 100% chance with 1 point - 0% with 0 points
2018 - 97% chance with 1 point
2019 - 17.56% chance with 1 point

 

[jtm307]

Point creep is real... Crazy how many people are applying for the special general elk tag.

Here is the year by year breakdown for special general;
2012 - 100% chance with zero points
2013 - 86.42% chance with zero points
2014 - 64.06% chance with zero points
2015 - 45.13% chance with zero points
2016 - 31.62% chance with zero points
2017 - 100% chance with 1 point - 0% with 0 points
2018 - 97% chance with 1 point
2019 - 17.56% chance with 1 point

That right there is why I want to remain a WY resident until I die.

 

[Timr245]

Point creep is real... Crazy how many people are applying for the special general elk tag.

Here is the year by year breakdown for special general;
2012 - 100% chance with zero points
2013 - 86.42% chance with zero points
2014 - 64.06% chance with zero points
2015 - 45.13% chance with zero points
2016 - 31.62% chance with zero points
2017 - 100% chance with 1 point - 0% with 0 points
2018 - 97% chance with 1 point
2019 - 17.56% chance with 1 point

After seeing that, I consider myself 1 lucky hunter!

 

[WapitiBob]

You can?t use the demand report to determine odds for special gen with zero points.

 

[Hilltop]

You can?t use the demand report to determine odds for special gen with zero points.

WG&F lists it... https://wgfd.wyo.gov/WGFD/media/content/PDF/Hunting/Drawing Odds/DRAW_ELK_PP_NONRESSP_2012.pdf

Why not?

 

[Hilltop]

I think I understand what you are referencing because the random special need to be combined with the PP draw numbers. In any event- it's obvious that point creep is happening as more apply.

 

[WapitiBob]

The dept adds elk licenses to the special gen random side after that demand report is created, to comply with the 7,250 nr quota. Averaging about 400/year. Add those back in to the random demand report for accurate odds for the random side. But yes, most hunts are creeping. The special gen saw a 300 app jump the year huntin fool did their wyoming gen hunt issue.

 

[Prerylyon]

The dept adds elk licenses to the special gen random side after that demand report is created, to comply with the 7,250 nr quota. Averaging about 400/year. Add those back in to the random demand report for accurate odds for the random side. But yes, most hunts are creeping. The special gen saw a 300 app jump the year huntin fool did their wyoming gen hunt issue.

'WB,

Do you think the HF publicity contributed to the increase in applicants that year?

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I337Z using Tapatalk

 

[WapitiBob]

No Idea, I haven't subscribed for years so I don't know what they've pushed.

 

[Hilltop]

'WB,

Do you think the HF publicity contributed to the increase in applicants that year?

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I337Z using Tapatalk

All of the online information influences draw odds imo. If a trusted site, like ours, gives glowing reviews about a hunt, you can count on more people applying for that hunt.

 

[Fink]

The dept adds elk licenses to the special gen random side after that demand report is created, to comply with the 7,250 nr quota. Averaging about 400/year. Add those back in to the random demand report for accurate odds for the random side. But yes, most hunts are creeping. The special gen saw a 300 app jump the year huntin fool did their wyoming gen hunt issue.

So, they add roughly 400 licenses into the special general draw, after the draw, but before the final quotas are set?

 

[Fink]

Ohh.. Duh, never mind, I figured it out.

 

[Big Chief J]

If I understand the draw odds. You had about a 17% chance for General Elk Special (with 1 PP), but there was about a 25% chance of General Elk Special in the Random Draw.