CrimsonArrow
Very Active Member
Take the time you spend studying and applying for hunts, and get a second job. Then use that money to go to Alberta and kill a nice bighorn.
Ground level sheep
- Thread starter johnsd16
- Start date
Umpqua Hunter
Veteran member
Some thoughts on Colorado. Sol mentions that he was 30 when he started applying, and drew at 56 (26 years of applying). A new guy might think "I am 30 years old and I might have a good chance to draw if I just stick with it" but things are different today then they were 26 years ago due to the current point system. Weighted points started accruing 16 years ago, therefore Sol should have been at or near max points when he drew.
Next year the max is 3 years + 16 weighted points. For someone new who starts to apply next year (2017) the max will be 3 years + 19 weighted points before they have a chance to draw three years later (2020).
For the person starting at the bottom in Colorado next year, they will be 19 years behind the max point pool.
Colorado does have low fees to apply but a high tag fee you have to front in order to apply. If you just want to have your "name in the hat" somewhere, Colorado is currently one of the least expensive states to apply in.
I totally encourage guys to follow their dreams, but do so with your eyes wide open.
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I drew a non Res tag in Wyoming in 2014 . It took me 15 pp for area 1. I was 63 when I went on the hunt. So that means I was 47 when I first applied. I would highly recommend to save up the money, and go that route. To many things can happen , health, the state can change thing up, and you won't have to wonder if you will ever draw. I was very LUCKY to draw a tag. As I tell people, drawing the tag is probably the hardest part of hunting sheep. Mental and physically it is tough, especially at 63 however the mental aspect far outweighs the physical, Area 1 was not my choice for any of the years I put in until 2014. I took a chance on it because in the past proceeding years those who drew it had the lower end of points that drew. At 63 I figured I need to take a chance on any area that I stood a good chance of drawing. Area 1 Wyoming has been called the roughest area in Wyoming with a low density of sheep but I just wanted to go sheep hunting, thought also at this time of putting in for Montana unlimited . I lucked out and drew the area and was fortunate to harvest a beautiful 170 class ram. Looking with hind sight thought I'd go the route of saving the money up myself, and be in control of when I would hunt sheep
Umpqua Hunter
Veteran member
For someone who thinks "that could be me in 15 or 20 years", realize that in 2014, the draw for Unit 1 was 75% for a nonresident with 15 points since 15 points was in the max point draw that year.
If someone is not in or near the max point level in Wyoming, they never will be unless something changes in the structure of the draw. There is an "wall" of applicants only a few points below the current max that will take a lifetime to draw through. This year the odds for drawing a nonresident sheep tag in the random draw in Wyoming was:
Unit 1: 1 in 277
Unit 2: 1 in 275
Unit 3: 1 in 283
Unit 4: 1 in 328
Unit 5: 1 in 297
At a cost of $114 to apply ($100 required preference point fee + $14 application fee) someone would statistically spend around $30,000 to draw a tag with these odds with no guarantee that they would draw. Of course you could be the lucky one.
Here is what I am referring to as the "wall" of preference points for sheep in Wyoming. The following are the non-resident point levels GOING INTO the 2016 draw (this year). The wall starts at 16 points.
21 points 13 nonresident
20 points 43 nonresidents
19 points 43 nonresidents
18 points 98 nonresidents
17 points 122 nonresidents
16 points 403 nonresidents (the "wall" begins)
15 points 393 nonresidents
14 points 453 nonresidents
13 points 421 nonresidents
12 points 414 nonresidents
11 points 309 nonresidents
10 points 364 nonresidents
9 points 391 nonresidents
8 points 396 nonresidents
7 points 400 nonresidents
6 points 459 nonresidents
5 points 562 nonresidents
4 points 619 nonresidents
3 points 614 nonresidents
2 points 849 nonresidents
1 points 1553 nonresidents
TOTAL: 8919
In 2016, there were 43 nonresident tags drawn in the preference draw and a total of 60 nonresident sheep tags. With 8919 applicants in the queue, that is a backlog of 148 years assuming no attrition, no change in the draw system and no change in tag numbers.
Again the intent of this post is to provide info to help future prospective sheep applicants to enter the draw with their eyes wide open.
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FitToHunt
Active Member
This thread is giving me serious consideration to just spending my money on raffles, and super tags...Might be better odds..
Some raffles etc. might be. But I suspect there are no decent draw, raffle or super tag odds any more. There used to be, may still be, I've not checked in a while. But if you have enough time, you can still play the point game. Just decide on your budget and states and then compare it to a savings plan to buy a hunt. No guarantees either way. Demand continues to exceed supply.
FitToHunt
Active Member
Have you ever seen states post their odds for raffles? Those would be interesting to see.... I just wonder if you took the example of $1000/yr times 20 years, but instead of putting that into draws. You bought 1000/yr in raffle tickets.. Who would have the better odds? Either way it's just gambling against the house.
Just a thought. I imagine I'll just buy a Hunt in Canada one day anyways.
Umpqua Hunter
Veteran member
Oregon's (my home state) sheep raffle sells around 8000 tickets a year. If you bought $1000 in tickets you would have about a 1.6% chance to draw.
Arizona's sheep raffle generated $161,500 in 2015. A $1000 donation would have gotten you an 0.6% chance to draw.
I'd research where the Wyoming commissioner tags are going, and look for a sleeper donated guided sheep hunt going to some smaller organizations, but don't get your hopes up too high.
I've been living in the world of seriously pursuing drawing sheep tags for 30+ years and I don't know of any sleeper opportunities.
A friend of mine (an excellent hunter by the way) thinks if a very good hunter spent 5 years hunting the unlimited sheep areas in Montana they would have a good chance at a sheep. That is from a guy I would consider a top 5% kind of hunter though.
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tim
Veteran member
Umpqua Hunter
I take it you are an engineer?
Please don't take this wrong, but sometimes you just have to apply and hope the gods smile on you. IT does happen.
I take it you are an engineer?
Please don't take this wrong, but sometimes you just have to apply and hope the gods smile on you. IT does happen.
wy-tex
Veteran member
Wyoming sets aside 25% for the random drawing and I know someone who had max points and drew a resident tag in the random drawing. Remember some with points will drop out over the years.
Extractor
Active Member
UH, that's*some sobering info and thoughts. If I'm ever in a drought, I'm calling you to rain on my parade!
I happen to be stuck in the "wall" at 17 now post draw. At this point even with 280 or so NR's ahead of me I'll keep contributing to Wyoming G & F . So you residents - stop complaining about me spending money in your state!
I happen to be stuck in the "wall" at 17 now post draw. At this point even with 280 or so NR's ahead of me I'll keep contributing to Wyoming G & F . So you residents - stop complaining about me spending money in your state!
Umpqua Hunter
Veteran member
Extractor, you are actually not in too bad of a place. You had 276 ahead of you this year and about 43 of those drew out. In the next 5 years or so your point pool be drawing the bulk of the tags, then you should fairly good odds until you draw.
Now the guys that area a few points below you are in for a very long wait.
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tim
Veteran member
if hunting sheep is what you truly want to do, it is simple. set up a long term savings account. Any time you have free money, deposit in the acct. You get a check for your birthday, put it in there. you get rebate money from something you bought. put it in there. this maybe 10 years out, but you get the picture. make it a priority and save for it.
FitToHunt
Active Member
Any idea how much the price if a sheep hunt has increased over the past 10-15yrs? I only started looking at the a couple years ago.
It may be very difficult to save at a rate fast enough to outgrow inflation. I wouldn't think it too much of a stretch to see them double in price in that amount of time. But maybe I'm wrong...
Don't have the answer, but your concern is well founded in my view. Costs will certainly go up and the supply/demand relationship for sheep tags is unlikely to get better. Get in super good shape and hunt the unlimited units in MT till you connect, may be the most cost effective strategy. But that opportunity could change too, one just never knows. Might want to consider Aoudad.
FitToHunt
Active Member
And what does that hunt go for now? Say $20k... So that's a 400+% increase in 20years!
tim
Veteran member
fit
20k will get you a combo moose and sheep hunt. I paid $7000 in 2007 and the same outfitter is now $16,500.
coming up with a diligent savings plan is not for everyone, but you would be amazed at how much money a disciplined saver can put away, especially if it is the priority. I really want the desert, to finish my grand slam. it is one of the motivations to owning my own business.
20k will get you a combo moose and sheep hunt. I paid $7000 in 2007 and the same outfitter is now $16,500.
coming up with a diligent savings plan is not for everyone, but you would be amazed at how much money a disciplined saver can put away, especially if it is the priority. I really want the desert, to finish my grand slam. it is one of the motivations to owning my own business.
FitToHunt
Active Member
I'll bet if a guy took out a personal loan and did the hunt soon, over the course of the loan you'd pay less in interest than it'd cost you to save for one in 15-20yrs.