Congrats! Ya gotta play to win... Another way to look at the odds. If I put in for 5 tags all with a 1% chance, I have a 5% chance that year, meaning I have a 50% chance a drawing a tag in 10 years...overly simplified example, but odds I can live with. As I say when fishing, if your line is not in the water you won't catch a fish. Which is why I love to fish as many rods out of my boat as I can.I drew sheep in Idaho 1st time putting in....not to rub it in or anything....
goat/moose/sheep-zero points-is it worth it?
- Thread starter okie archer
- Start date
Elkhunter96
Active Member
For moose odds, I would say ID is your best bet. They gave around 46 NR tags out last year with around 460 NR applicants. Can't beat those odds as a resident for many states. But as others have pointed out, your out $150 plus to apply and have to pony up for the full tag fee.
Alabama
Veteran member
As a non-resident? If so, I hate you nowI drew sheep in Idaho 1st time putting in....not to rub it in or anything....
mntnguide
Very Active Member
I was a resident back then...so definitely best odds in the lower 48 for drawing a sheep when points are not involved...The unit i drew put out 4 tags that fall and I think odds were a little under 20%...Just got lucky!
Alabama
Veteran member
So you're saying that if I apply for 3 hunts with 33.33% odds that I have a 100% chance of drawing. Or if I apply for 5 hunts with 20% odds I have a 100% chance of drawing. Not trying to be a smart a$$ but applying for 5 hunts with 1% odds doesn't give you a 5% chance of drawing.
Alabama
Veteran member
Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good! Did you get a good ram? Pics please.
No prob. I am violating some rules of probabilities with my oversimplifications to be sure. If I put in for 3 hunts each with 33.33% odds, I will draw 0, 1, 2, or 3 tags each year. There are various probabilities of each outcome. I forget if it is Bayes Theorem or what, but it can be calculated, which I am not going to do. My oversimplifications is on average you will get a hunt a year.
If I put in for 5 tags in 5 separate draws, every year for 100 years, each with a 1% chance of drawing in a given year, again over simplified, I would expect on average to draw 5 tags in 100 years. So for 5 separate trials or draws, each with a 1% chance of draw, measured over the same 100 years, in any given year my chance of drawing a tag is oversimply stated to be 5%. It never works that way, but I could draw a tag in year 1, 21, 41, 61 and 81, right? That is essentially what I am calling an oversimplified 5% chance of a tag, on average, in a given year. It would make a probabilities and statistics professor faint, as this is a gross oversimplification.
I'm not going to do an actual mathematical analysis, but can say the more 1% draws you enter and the longer you stay in them, the greater the odds you experience should come to the stated draw odds. A little law of large numbers with slight nod to standard deviations... If I am all wet, toss buckets, I have good rain gear.
Musket Man
Veteran member
The bottom like is if you apply you might get lucky and draw!!! I have not drawn a moose/goat/sheep tag yet or applied for many but I have drawn a few deer and antelope tags with single digit odds!
Yep, and if you can find true random draws w/o NR caps or points, you can have some idea if it is worth it to you. You do significantly up your chance of a tag with the more random draws you participate in. If you can play in enough of them long enough, the more likely the odds you experience will match the stated random draw odds and the more accurate the concept I was trying to explain will become for you. It starts to make some of the raffle tags look much better than some of the points based systems if you don't already have quite a few points.
The other strategy you need to think about is applying for other than the top units. That is what I did in WY to draw a sheep tag so I could hunt any sheep at least once, figured it was that or MT unlimited units for a sure deal. In OR last year 598 NR's chased a single bighorn hunt, but 5 Cal. BH hunts for one tag each had 350 or fewer, including one with 217 trying for one tag. Not great odds, have to buy a 148.50 license, but a pure random draw, some of these NR had about 3x the chance as others based on the unit. OR sheep raffle tickets are $11.50 each, with volume discounts, low odds, you can look up past numbers of tickets sold. Not saying play in OR, but somebody has to draw. I am lucky, got in on points in the early 90's. I figured I'd draw between 1 - 3 sheep tags by 2023, with 2 being most likely. Your chance of drawing a sheep hunt, over time, with enough true random draws entered, may be higher than
you think.