GOAL: Branch bull

[Musket Man]

There were no tags leftover from reg or sp PP draw or the reg random draw. There were 376 tags in the sp random draw and 138 first choice apps leaving 238 tags for 377 2nd choice applicants which comes out to 63% odds 2nd choice in the sp draw. How else would you figure it?

 

[ssliger]

There were no tags leftover from reg or sp PP draw or the reg random draw. There were 376 tags in the sp random draw and 138 first choice apps leaving 238 tags for 377 2nd choice applicants which comes out to 63% odds 2nd choice in the sp draw. How else would you figure it?

You are looking at it right.

 

[WapitiBob]

You're looking at the report "right", you're just not understanding what you're looking at. And, to be fair, I wouldn't expect you to know any different unless somebody told you differently. The random report simply shows the remaining "std allocation" of NR tags, at the point of the random portion of the draw.

 

[Umpqua Hunter]

Here is the way I see it for the non-resident general elk tag, in the higher "special" draw last year (2013):

PREFERENCE POINT DRAW:

1) 1130 tags (75% of the total tags) were issued in the preference point draw.

2) In the "0" point pool there were 893 tags issued to 1031 first choice applicants.

3) There were 138 first choice applicants with "0" points that were not drawn in the "Preference Point Draw", that then entered the "Random Draw".

4) All of the Preference Point tags were drawn by first choice applicants. All applicants drawn in the preference point draw lost their points and did not earn a preference point.

RANDOM DRAW:

1) 376 tags (25% of the total tags) were issued in the Random Draw

2) First Choice in the Random Draw: All of the 138 first choice applicants not drawn in the preference point draw drew in the random draw. None of them earned a preference point, and they would have lost their points except they had "0" to start with.

3) Second Choice in the Random Draw: There were 238 tags remaining for the second choice applicants. There were 377 second choice applicants in the draw for these remaining 238 tags. The draw success was 63% (238/377). Everyone who drew as a second choice retained their points and earned a point.

4) Third Choice in the Random Draw: 20 applicants, no tags were issued.

You are right on Musket Man.

I thought I would dazzle y'all with some more of my "new math".

 

[Musket Man]

You're looking at the report "right", you're just not understanding what you're looking at. And, to be fair, I wouldn't expect you to know any different unless somebody told you differently. The random report simply shows the remaining "std allocation" of NR tags, at the point of the random portion of the draw.

Can you please explain what I missing here?

 

[Topgun 30-06]

The suspense is killing me WB! Please explain it to them since there are a bunch that aren't aware of the total tags Wyoming allows to be issued to NRs every year after the main draws are done. That was a hint guys!!!

 

[WapitiBob]

MM, you're missing the fact that the random report doesn't show all the nr tags being allocated. So using it come to a conclusion about 2nd choice tags as illustrated by UH gives you incorrect information and you end up thinking a 2nd choice tag was less than 100%.

I thought you were asleep for the night...
And I get hate mail when I explain it on a forum

 

[Umpqua Hunter]

MM, you're missing the fact that the random report doesn't show all the nr tags being allocated. So using it come to a conclusion about 2nd choice tags as illustrated by UH gives you incorrect information and you end up thinking a 2nd choice tag was less than 100%.

I thought you were asleep for the night...
And I get hate mail when I explain it on a forum

The report does indicate a 63% draw.

Huntin Fool reported last month "If you want to continue to build points but still elk hunt this year in Wyoming, then apply in the “special license” draw for your dream tag and put in for the general tag as your second choice. In 2013 hunters had a 63% chance of drawing the general license in the special draw as their second choice."

So if I am hearing you correctly, there are more tags available than are shown in the draw report. Since Wyoming does not publish their tag numbers and season dates until usually around May, long after the non-resident elk draw, where does one find a report on these additional tags.

 

[Umpqua Hunter]

Here is WapitiBob's post off of another forum. "Special Price is still 100%. The random draw report only shows the "random draw" stats. There is a suplimental draw that takes place after the normal draws and it's used to allocate the remaining NR tags that are required to meet the 7,250 NR tag quota. They go back thru the GEN apps and allocate the tags there. That draw report isn't published on the web. There were over 700 NR tags converted and allocated in that draw. All 2nd choice apps and some 3rd choice apps were drawn in that supplimental draw."

So are these allocated in both the regular and the preference draw in the same ratio as the tags are originally allocated? If so 40% of those 700 or so tags would go into the preference draw, meaning another 280 or so, so all applicants, including all third choice applicants would have drawn. Huh…learn something new every day.

 

[Timberstalker]

Thanks for all the input guys.

 

[WapitiBob]

Tags are allocated for each hunt 84/16 res/nr

NR tags are split 75/25

Landowner draw held with NR tags

remaining nr tags are split 40/60 special/regular

special is split 75/25 PP/rndm

special PP draw done

leftovers, if any, are sent to regular draw

special random draw done

leftovers, if any, are sent to regular draw

special draw leftovers are added to random draw and random is split 75/25 PP/rndm

regular PP draw done, leftovers are pooled

regular random draw done, leftovers are pooled

total NR tags allocated are tallied to see if the 7,250 NR quota is met.

If not, pool all leftover NR tags and convert to GEN.

conduct 2nd pass thru Special GEN applicants

if 7,250 still isn't met,

conduct 2nd pass thru Reg GEN applicants

///////////////

In 2013 the 7,250 quota wasn't met, by a long ways, so they ran thru the Special GEN again. Because all the 1st choice guys had already drawn, they started hitting the tail end of 2nd choice guys, then went into the 3rd choices before they hit the 7,250 quota.

The random draw report, which is cited by nearly everyone, does not include the results of the "quota processing" section of the draw.

 

[Musket Man]

That makes sense. Thanks for explaining it!

 

[Umpqua Hunter]

Yeppers thanks WB.

I can see how you rained on some people's parade. The damage was already done when HF directed people to apply for the general tag as a second choice even if they did not fully understand how these remaining tags are allocated (neither did I, and I study this stuff constantly).

I've had great research blown by magazine publicity more times than I can count.

You are correct, HF draw odds for the most part are useless.

 

[WapitiBob]

Hopefully it'll be a few years before they draw all the tags in the 2nd choice pool. A price increase may help keep it at bay.

The idea wasn't to ruin odds for people although I've been accused of that. The idea is to inform people of the draw process so they can make an informed decision on where to draw. Some hope the "other guy" messes up so he can draw a tag, but getting that tag isn't the most important thing in my life. After 40 years of Elk hunting it might be nice if others can enjoy it.

The AZ draw is really an unknown entity. I noticed none of the mags informed their subscribers that there were only 66 NR tags in the early archery 1-2 pass in 2013 and over 30,000 1-2 applications. Those 66 tags were the only tags a NR could draw if not in a given hunts bonus pool. There were only 4 tags available for the early rifle hunts.

 

[Musket Man]

I think a price increase would help the SP draw but hurt the Reg draw odds.

 

[midwest_bow]

On all the different forums I've read, I've never seen one single post from someone that said they didn't draw a GEN tag on 2nd choice, special. But I did read where one guy drew on third choice so I have no doubt WB knows what he's talking about.

 

[Topgun 30-06]

Trust me on this one---WapitiBob knows as much about the Wyoming draw system as the people doing it for the G&F!!! When he posts something about the draw you should listen up because he's already talked to them on all this stuff and has a lot of stuff in emails as to exactly how they do everything. That's why his synopsis of the draw in that post he just put up is better than Huntin Fool or any other magazine or place you will go to for assistance.

 

[Umpqua Hunter]

On all the different forums I've read, I've never seen one single post from someone that said they didn't draw a GEN tag on 2nd choice, special. But I did read where one guy drew on third choice so I have no doubt WB knows what he's talking about.

midwest_bow, welcome to the forum! Start a new thread cause we'd like to get to know you better. Take care.

 

[NE69]

Hey WapitiBob, is there somewhere to send my membership dues to you? I think I just learned more from your post on WY draw that would be possible from joining any app service. Thanks

 

[WapitiBob]

Your welcome, good luck in the draws.