Colorado Moose Point Creep

[arwaterfowler]

The recent discussions of point creep for trophy species in Wyoming made me start thinking about Colorado on the eve of the application deadline. I compiled the data of preference point holders by year from the Colorado Parks and Wildlife website. Looking at the numbers on the table make me feel discouraged. In ten years the number of applicants with PP has more than doubled and the highest point holders go from 2 Weighted to 12 Weighted. One thing I dont understand about the data is why there are SO many point holders hovering around 3 every year...



I compiled the same data for Bighorn Sheep. I would be happy to post the info if anyone is interested.

 

[BleuBijou]

I would like to see what you have for moose, however for 2014, points are 3-13 and not 3-12.

 

[Umpqua Hunter]

A couple things I would suggest. First, run a subtotal for only people who are in the weighted pool, because effectively they are the only ones in the draw. Those who have 3 years or less in the system have no effect on the drawing.

Also when I use the term "point creep" it is usually in reference to a preference type system or preference type variation (like Utah has) to the draw. The "creep" is how the points required to be in the tag draw pool goes up each year. "Point creep" in the way I have usually used it has to do with not being able to draw (or having extremely low odds like in UT) because you can't catch the main draw pool because the draw pool keeps going up each year.

What I find interesting from your spreadsheet is how many people apparently "give up" with only 1 or 2 weighted points. Look at the "1 weighted point" level it has not had more than 123 applicants, despite there being 448 to 668 applicants in the "0 weighted point level"

Here is a specific example of how applicants dropped out:

2010: 719 applicants (3 regular points)
2011: 668 of that pool applied (0 weighted)
2012: 123 of that pool applied (1 weighted)

It happens repeatedly, here is another:

2010: 807 applicants (3 regular points)
2011: 656 of that pool applied (0 weighted)
2012: 121 of that pool applied (1 weighted)


I'm referencing your data in the spreadsheet and haven't verified it. If the data is good, it means that the vast majority of applicants that start out, give up around the 4th or 5th year.

A question for others, is there actually a "0 weighted points" level? I'm not sure on that one. Do you start at 0 weighted points or 1 weighted point in your 4th year applying?

 

[Granby guy]

As I understand it, and have current records of, first year you have 0 points. So your fourth time applying you have 3 and 0 weighted so you are in the drawing because they divide by your weighted points plus one. I helped a kid this year get his bull who drew with 3 and 0 weighted so it can be done.

 

[Umpqua Hunter]

As I understand it, and have current records of, first year you have 0 points. So your fourth time applying you have 3 and 0 weighted so you are in the drawing because they divide by your weighted points plus one. I helped a kid this year get his bull who drew with 3 and 0 weighted so it can be done.

Yep, just checked the draw report and you are right on.

 

[Granby guy]

That still doesn't help make sense of those low point holder stats though.

 

[Umpqua Hunter]

That still doesn't help make sense of those low point holder stats though.

I think it basically says the vast majority aren't sticking it out past year 5.

 

[Alabama]

Good stuff. The resourcefulness and willingness to share data on this site never ceases to amaze me. When you first start applying for sheep/moose out west and you look at the simple draw odds it seems just a matter of time before you draw. After a while you realize drawing a lesser "non trophy" unit is possible but still extremely difficult but it still takes a lot of research and good luck. The highly sought "trophy" units are truly powerball lotto odds. It kind of crushes your hopes but I would rather know where I stand. Could you post the BG sheep data as well? Thanks.

 

[Granby guy]

I think it basically says the vast majority aren't sticking it out past year 5.

Those weighted points are worthless it is a RANDOM draw. I think they look at the huge group of people with max weighted points and think that they have no chance of drawing when in fact everyone basically has the same chance. I think they give out random points to make the people who have applied for a long time feel better.

 

[Granby guy]

Good stuff. The resourcefulness and willingness to share data on this site never ceases to amaze me. When you first start applying for sheep/moose out west and you look at the simple draw odds it seems just a matter of time before you draw. After a while you realize drawing a lesser "non trophy" unit is possible but still extremely difficult but it still takes a lot of research and good luck. The highly sought "trophy" units are truly powerball lotto odds. It kind of crushes your hopes but I would rather know where I stand. Could you post the BG sheep data as well? Thanks.

I helped 4 people get their moose last season and NONE of them had max points.

 

[Umpqua Hunter]

Those weighted points are worthless it is a RANDOM draw. I think they look at the huge group of people with max weighted points and think that they have no chance of drawing when in fact everyone basically has the same chance. I think they give out random points to make the people who have applied for a long time feel better.

Weighted points actually do give a specific individual a statistical advantage due to the way the draw number is assigned. The reason you see a lot of tags going to those with lesser points is that is where the vast majority of the applicants are positioned, so you will tend to see a lot of tags issued in the lower point pools. As an example, in the spreadsheet in this thread, there were 14 times the number of applicants with 0 weighted points (661 applicants) than there were with the max 12 weighted points (47 applicants). That bias in numbers of applicants makes it appear points don't matter. Another issue with top point applicants is they usually chase the hardest to draw units, thus lowering their odds.

 

[Granby guy]

Weighted points actually do give a specific individual a statistical advantage due to the way the draw number is assigned. The reason you see a lot of tags going to those with lesser points is that is where the vast majority of the applicants are positioned, so you will tend to see a lot of tags issued in the lower point pools. As an example, in the spreadsheet in this thread, there were 14 times the number of applicants with 0 weighted points (661 applicants) than there were with the max 12 weighted points (47 applicants). That bias in numbers of applicants makes it appear points don't matter. Another issue with top point applicants is they usually chase the hardest to draw units, thus lowering their odds.

I know it was more just venting frustration. There are 6 of us with max points that can't draw so to us the points are worthless. ( I understand that they do have some value to them)

 

[Umpqua Hunter]

I know it was more just venting frustration. There are 6 of us with max points that can't draw so to us the points are worthless. ( I understand that they do have some value to them)

I know what you're feeling!

You have most certainly thought of it but one thing I have done often is to lessen my expectations and draw a mid tier unit with good top end potential. I turn 50 this year and am seriously taking into account that I have 20 good hunting years left, at most. if I am "all in" chasing a tag, I tend to look at the years I have ahead of me to draw and adjust my expectations to do the best job I can to insure success in the draw.

For example there's one tag I am chasing, the vast majority of top point applicants are chasing the stars, if I do I'll I have about a 1-3% chance to draw in my lifetime. By lowering my expectations just a bit I should have about a 20% chance to draw.

 

[Granby guy]

I know what you're feeling!

You have most certainly thought of it but one thing I have done often is to lessen my expectations and draw a mid tier unit with good top end potential. I turn 50 this year and am seriously taking into account that I have 20 good hunting years left, at most. if I am "all in" chasing a tag, I tend to look at the years I have ahead of me to draw and adjust my expectations to do the best job I can to insure success in the draw.

For example there's one tag I am chasing, the vast majority of top point applicants are chasing the stars, if I do I'll I have about a 1-3% chance to draw in my lifetime. By lowering my expectations just a bit I should have about a 20% chance to draw.

HAha, I agree but there isn't really a mid tier unit for moose here. I could consider another unit with a little better draw odds but damnit I want to hunt them in my backyard.

 

[Umpqua Hunter]

HAha, I agree but there isn't really a mid tier unit for moose here. I could consider another unit with a little better draw odds but damnit I want to hunt them in my backyard.

I know it doesn't seem like much but 3% odds is more than twice as good as 1.5% odds…just saying.

There are units with odds as high as 8% and as low as 1.5% with max points.

 

[Granby guy]

I know it doesn't seem like much but 3% odds is more than twice as good as 1.5% odds…just saying.

There are units with odds as high as 8% and as low as 1.5% with max points.

I know but I think I'm a creature of habit. Like a lot of people who started applying 20 years ago I figured I could draw a tag by the time I was 40 so that means I would have to draw this year. I started collecting points for elk years ago and got frustrated and burned my points about 10 years ago but if I would have stuck with it I would now be able to draw a tag in the NW corner. I never expected to see the moose applicants explode the way that it has.

 

[BleuBijou]

GranbyGuy I have max points, got my voodo dolls out with all the candles and beads. Please rub my head, punch me in the face or some other good luck remedy!!!! I have been out drawn with a guy who had 1 weighted. Shot a nice bull with his recurve. Maybe just go up to Ak to my buddies. I put in for 7,8,191 as I always do.

 

[Umpqua Hunter]

I know but I think I'm a creature of habit. Like a lot of people who started applying 20 years ago I figured I could draw a tag by the time I was 40 so that means I would have to draw this year. I started collecting points for elk years ago and got frustrated and burned my points about 10 years ago but if I would have stuck with it I would now be able to draw a tag in the NW corner. I never expected to see the moose applicants explode the way that it has.

The other side of the coin is elk is a preference system, and you can catch the top. Moose isn't….so play the odds to win. Just a suggestion.

The flip side is you wouldn't want to look back in 20 years and realize you likely would have gone moose hunting if you'd played to win.

At 40 you will probably draw the tag you want, just so they don't mess with the draw system.

 

[arwaterfowler]

Stop the press. I went back to look at the difference between regular and weighted point holders. I've got a problem, the data shows the exact same amount of point holders for both regular and weighted every year. See below. Example 2013 - 1500 and 1500? I double checked the data and it is correct according to Colorado's website (http://cpw.state.co.us/thingstodo/Pages/Statistics.aspx). I will try calling the Department of Parks and Wildlife for help. There is no way that the numbers can be the same every year. I'll let you guy know what if find.



I'll post the Bighorn data when I figure out what the deal is.

 

[Elkhunter96]

Im 36 and I only have a few moose points in CO. Hopefully will be able to draw one before I die...lol