Black Hills - Whitetail/Mule Deer

rcfireninja · Dec 8, 2017

Montana said:
Howdy all...

Statistics are showing that I will have a fair chance this year at drawing the any deer permit in the Black Hills as a nonresident. I?ll be going in with seven points this year. Does anyone have any recommendations on an outfitter or private landowner willing to allow access for a trespass fee?

Thanks in advance and greatly appreciated.

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Looking at the draw from this year you?ll have a 10% chance as a non resident of drawing the any deer tag next year for the black hills. The whitetail tag will have a 84% chance. There is more public land in the black hills than private. Once you draw the tag there is a good areas to go for either species. I can give you some pointers for both once you draw.

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Bearlodge10 · Dec 8, 2017

There are a good number of Outfitters and Landowners in the area that will fit the bill. It really depends on what type and quality of deer you are looking to take. As mentioned above there is also a great amount of public land that should work for you to hunt without paying the additional fees for trespass. If you are looking for a trophy deer then you might have better luck guided or on private but there are some really good deer on public as well. Since you said whitetail is what you are after, then I would look at areas inside the forest (unguided). like rcfireninja, once you draw or even before I am willing to share some insight.

Horsenhike · Dec 8, 2017

I think with seven points his odds are better than 10%. Hard to say exactly as they don't show the preference point breakdown of that draw, but I'm sure most don't have that many points. Each point is a ticket in the draw, so you have seven chances to win! You can't lose. 16 tags for 153 applicants. Better odds than mine as a resident with 100 tags for 1710 applicants. Either way, for both draws it's hard to know exact odds without knowing the points of each applicant.

Really torn on whether to continue trying for the any deer tag or bite the bullet and start applying for the whitetail.

rcfireninja · Dec 8, 2017

Horsenhike said:
I think with seven points his odds are better than 10%. Hard to say exactly as they don't show the preference point breakdown of that draw, but I'm sure most don't have that many points. Each point is a ticket in the draw, so you have seven chances to win! You can't lose. 16 tags for 153 applicants. Better odds than mine as a resident with 100 tags for 1710 applicants. Either way, for both draws it's hard to know exact odds without knowing the points of each applicant.

Really torn on whether to continue trying for the any deer tag or bite the bullet and start applying for the whitetail.

South Dakota does not use that system of 7 points giving you 7 chances in the draw. By having 7 preference points only puts you in the group of more than 1 point. Everyone with more than 1 point has the same chance around 10% with 16 tags for 153 people.

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Horsenhike · Dec 8, 2017

rcfireninja said:
South Dakota does not use that system of 7 points giving you 7 chances in the draw. By having 7 preference points only puts you in the group of more than 1 point. Everyone with more than 1 point has the same chance around 10% with 16 tags for 153 people.

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LOL. The question stumped the SDGFP lady.

Look at the video explaining the deer draw on the deer page. At the 20 minute mark it has a page that shows PP information. On that sheet it specifically says it is a weighted draw to give someone with six points an advantage over someone with three.

Next, take a look at this video. It is on the elk draw, but explains the role of PP in SD. https://youtu.be/tBjIzG7Ehcc

These things are what lead me to believe each point is a "bean" in the drawing.

ETA: You can watch the whole thing, but on the link I posted starting at 8:48 shows what I am talking about.

rcfireninja · Dec 8, 2017

Horsenhike said:
LOL. The question stumped the SDGFP lady.

Look at the video explaining the deer draw on the deer page. At the 20 minute mark it has a page that shows PP information. On that sheet it specifically says it is a weighted draw to give someone with six points an advantage over someone with three.

Next, take a look at this video. It is on the elk draw, but explains the role of PP in SD. https://youtu.be/tBjIzG7Ehcc

These things are what lead me to believe each point is a "bean" in the drawing.

ETA: You can watch the whole thing, but on the link I posted starting at 8:48 shows what I am talking about.

God grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, the courage to change the things I can, and the wisdom to know the difference.

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Horsenhike · Dec 8, 2017

rcfireninja said:
God grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, the courage to change the things I can, and the wisdom to know the difference.

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The link I posted is a South Dakota Game Fish and Parks representative explaining exactly what I am saying. If you can prove otherwise I am all ears. The lady at SDGFP today could not do so. I gave her the same examples I posted here, she took my number, and said she would get back to me.

I am honestly trying to navigate all these draws just like everyone else and just trying to help. If you know something I don't, please feel free to educate me.

rcfireninja · Dec 8, 2017

Horsenhike said:
The link I posted is a South Dakota Game Fish and Parks representative explaining exactly what I am saying. If you can prove otherwise I am all ears. The lady at SDGFP today could not do so. I gave her the same examples I posted here, she took my number, and said she would get back to me.

I am honestly trying to navigate all these draws just like everyone else and just trying to help. If you know something I don't, please feel free to educate me.

http://gfp.sd.gov/hunting/licenses/limited/forms/DeerApp.pdf

Example a is the deer application that states nothing about bonus points.
Example b is the preference point paragraph from said application.
Example c is the website results for nr black hills deer that show the division of preference point groups.
Example d is the same video you reference never says anything about bonus points for each draw. The slides themselves all show preference point and the groups that the preference point puts you in.

There are other states that do bonus points and preference points for example, Montana.

If you want to look at how the preference point pool is broken down even more under black hills elk for rifle season it shows the Years of preference for each applicant and successful draws. The pool of tags on those with more than 10 Years preference, 2 Years or 0 Years breaks down how many went to each group and that is how you can figure your odds of drawing.

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Ikeepitcold · Dec 8, 2017

Well there we go.

Horsenhike · Dec 8, 2017

https://youtu.be/tBjIzG7Ehcc

Honestly. Watch this video.

Horsenhike · Dec 9, 2017

So the video above is a really nice explanation of the South Dakota elk draw. At around the 8 minute mark is where he begins talking about how the actual draw works and says something to the effect, "People who have ten years of PP ask me, When am I going to draw my deer or elk tag?" He then goes into the details of how the draw is done.

We are talking about two different things. You are talking about draw groups, 0+, 2+, etc., while I am talking about exactly how the draw is completed.

The voice you hear in the video is Scott Simpson who at the time I believe was the Information and Education Chief for the South Dakota Game Fish and Parks. I believe his position has changed, but the is still an employee with SDGFP. He is presenting this information to the South Dakota Game Fish and Parks Commission. It is a very comprehensive and detailed presentation that really explains how the draw is performed in South Dakota. I find it all interesting, but starting at the 8 minute mark will give the information I am attempting to relay.

Monday I am going to communicate with Mr. Simpson about including something in the SDGFP Hunting Handbook about this. It would go a long ways towards explaining to people not only how the draw is operated, but why max point holders don't draw elk tags in SD, which as we all know is a very contentious issue.

Not trying to be a jerk about this, but I firmly believe that additional PP do help you to draw tags in South Dakota.

Alabama · Dec 10, 2017

From the video it seems as if they work as bonus points. An extra name in the hat if you will. What is confusing is how they allocate different percentages of available tags based on point "groups" (0+, 2+, and 10+). It would be nice to see the allocation breakdown of deer, antelope, bison, etc.

Horsenhike · Dec 10, 2017

They could certainly do a better job of explaining all of these draws. Honestly, I know almost no one who truly understands them. A lot of changes happened after a 2015 survey where a good number of respondents wanted to see PP play a bigger role in application success. That's when the percentages based on points began to be used.

If you go to "Past draw statistics" on the individual hunting pages it will take you to a tool that will show you the breakdown of the draw. Some, but not all, will show you the breakdown of which level of PP got each tag. That leads to much hurt in the elk draw because in most years someone with no points draws an awesome tag while someone with 15 PP does not. They alleviate some of that in the deer draw by instituting the 2+ category which pretty much means you need 2 or more points to draw a high value(mule deer)tag. There are exceptions, but that is pretty much how it works.

With elk a certain percentage does drop down to 0+, which means someone has a chance who has no points. A study of the draw statistics shows this sometimes happens. Which really upsets people. Like the video says, finite resource, lots of applicants, SDGFP is in between a rock and a hard place in regards to a fair process.

Regardless, the elk draw is resident only, but the deer draw is not and has quite a few similarities.

Alabama · Dec 10, 2017

Thanks for posting horsenhike. The SD draw was a mystery to me as I've only been in it for a couple of years.

Sorry to the OP for the highjack lol.
It looks like your odds are better than 10% based on that video, but you'll never be guaranteed the tag no matter how long you apply.

Black Hills - Whitetail/Mule Deer

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