Arizona Draw odds?

[kiddwinner]

Hey guys,
I'm looking for some help on draw odds for AZ, Ive read the MRS section a few times and still don't quite get it. I put in for area 27 archery because my mother has a house close to that area but this is only my second year applying. The MRS section says ~30% draw odds but how does that work when I have 1 point and someone else has 6? Do I realistically have a chance of drawing this tag or is it all a pipe dream this year? Thanks in advance...

 

[Umpqua Hunter]

Those draw odds are incorrect. Last year there were 40 non-resident tags and from what I can tell, all only a small number of them were issued to applicants with max points.

The draw odds for Arizona elk and antelope listed in MRS are highly misleading. They do not take into account that the vast majority of non-resident elk tags are issued to the max point holders in a given unit. It also does not take into account the weighting of bonus points for those with less than max points. The reason for this is non-residents can only draw 10% of the tags, but 20% of all of the tags are first issued to the applicants with the most points. In high demand units, all of the non-resident tags are issued to max point holders with NO tags entering the random draw. In those cases the draw odds for those with less than max points is "0%". What I particularly don't like about stating incorrect draw odds in a widely publicized magazine is that it creates the impression with many applicants that a tag can actually be drawn, and people spend their money with that assumption.

The good news is that this year there will be 50 non-resident tags issued compared to 40 last year, so likely there will likely be a few more non resident tags that slip through into the random draw. More good news is I believe you have actually picked an elk hunt where you can draw with less than max points.

With the limited data Arizona provides about non-resident applications, it is nearly impossible to create accurate draw statistics.

Wapitibob understands the Arizona draw better than I so I hope he chimes in.

 

[Cobbhunts]

I just can't get over the wealth of knowledge and willingness to help others out on this site......Good luck in the draw KW!!

 

[Guy]

Hey guys,
I'm looking for some help on draw odds for AZ, Ive read the MRS section a few times and still don't quite get it. I put in for area 27 archery because my mother has a house close to that area but this is only my second year applying. The MRS section says ~30% draw odds but how does that work when I have 1 point and someone else has 6? Do I realistically have a chance of drawing this tag or is it all a pipe dream this year? Thanks in advance...

Kiddwinner, The inner workings of the Arizona preference point system is somewhat of a secret held deep inside the department walls, kind of like the recipe for Coke. They only publish, or make public the "average" draw odds for an area. Basically, what the average draw odd was for everyone in the entire pool of applicants. There is no real information, that I could find anyway, on how much the draw odds vary depending on your points. I think they are nervous to let the public know how dismal their system really is, personally. But anyhow, they will only tell you, or me anyway, that "if you applied, your odds will never be zero and now matter have many points you have, your odds will never be 100%." Take that for what it's worth. So essentially, we are left with this, if you have no points, your odds are a little bit less than the average draw odd for that area, and if you have max points, your odds are above the average published draw odd. By how much? No one really knows, well someone knows, but they don't want the public to know how that pans out in the end.

As for the actual inner workings of the computer system itself, the way they explained it to me, each applicant is assigned a random number for each point they have, the applicants are then ranked by their lowest random numbers and they start assigning tags from the lowest guy up, until they run out of tags. But unless you know how many other people are in that system, its impossible to calculate actual draw odds form that information without the Department's raw data. Then you have the second choice scenario also inside of that whole mess to contend with as well.

In a nut shell, in AZ the more points you have the more chances you have to get randomly assigned number "00001" which is the only random number that can guarantee you a NR tag with 100% surety.

I drew an AZ elk tag a few years back, and my random number was, 00002, on the second choice draw. No idea how that works.

Hope this helps to answer your question. Maybe someone on here knows more about it than me and can add more info to this as well.

G-

 

[kiddwinner]

This has been a lot of help... Thanks everyone! I can only hope, right

 

[Umpqua Hunter]

As for the actual inner workings of the computer system itself, the way they explained it to me, each applicant is assigned a random number for each point they have, the applicants are then ranked by their lowest random numbers and they start assigning tags from the lowest guy up, until they run out of tags. But unless you know how many other people are in that system, its impossible to calculate actual draw odds form that information without the Department's raw data. Then you have the second choice scenario also inside of that whole mess to contend with as well.

In a nut shell, in AZ the more points you have the more chances you have to get randomly assigned number "00001" which is the only random number that can guarantee you a NR tag with 100% surety.

I drew an AZ elk tag a few years back, and my random number was, 00002, on the second choice draw. No idea how that works.

Hope this helps to answer your question. Maybe someone on here knows more about it than me and can add more info to this as well.

G-

It is my understanding that the draw is conducted in two separate draws, and a non-resident can in fact have 0% chase to draw.

BONUS PASS: The first draw is called the "Bonus Pass" draw. This draw could be likened more like a "preference point" draw, since the tags in this pool are issued to those with the most points. In the bonus pass only the applicants with the most points for a given hunt are drawn. In this draw 20% of the tags are issued. If during this draw 10% of the tags are issued to non-residents the issuing of tags to non-residents goes no further. Let's say however that you are in the bonus pass draw for your second choice tag, however because your first choice took 5 more points that you had, you are not eligible for a "bonus pass" tag for your first choice. If I understand the draw, it would be possible to draw tag number 1 or tag number 2 for that given hunt, and yet draw your second choice.

1-2 PASS: This is the second draw called the "1-2 Pass" draw. In this draw your bonus points give you a greater chance to draw. If all of the non-resident tags were drawn in the "bonus pass" draw, there is no draw for the non-residents for a given unit. If your number comes up in the draw, and your first choice is already full, but there are still tags remaining in the second choice pool, you will receive a tag.

Guy….regarding your example, was the 00002 the tag number for that given hunt or was it the random number you had in the draw, meaning you had the second lowest number in the entire state. If it was your random draw number, I have not seen how to get that info and that would be something I'd like to learn about.

 

[Umpqua Hunter]

They only publish, or make public the "average" draw odds for an area. Basically, what the average draw odd was for everyone in the entire pool of applicants.

In all due respect, if Eastman's understands that the draw odds are faulty, why are these odds further peretuated in the tables in the MRS section? The MRS is seen as one of the leading tools to distill the massive amount of data out there, and act as a guide to help people wade through their choices and make educated decisions. When a person (particularly someone new to the game) sees a unit with "30% draw odds", they consider the price of the license and the application and make the investment believing they have basically a 1:3 chance of drawing, when in fact the draw odds can be far worse.

There actually are ways to better inform applicants of their draw odds from the information Arizona supplies. They aren't perfect, but far better than the average draw odds approach.

So essentially, we are left with this, if you have no points, your odds are a little bit less than the average draw odd for that area, and if you have max points, your odds are above the average published draw odd.

I don't believe that is an accurate statement. In most situation, the draw odds are not "a bit less" than the average draw odds for someone with no points. They can in fact be zero, and they are zero for numerous tags in Arizona. In many cases the applicants with the most points are the only applicants that will draw and the rest are spending money with no chance to draw.

Also in a scenario with a hunt that takes say 15 points to draw, lets say some tags slip through to the "1-2 pass" or the random draw. In that case, someone with 14 points will have 15 times more chance to draw in the random draw than someone with zero points.

 

[WapitiBob]

There is no "secret" within the dept. The Department does not have a report that breaks out the resident/non resident applicants, by point level, on a per hunt basis. If you call the dept and ask them point blank, "how many NR applicants with 7 points applied to hunt 3117?", they can not tell you. They will tell you the total res/nr but they can't break out either res or NR as a group.
Unfortunately, the IT dept has refused to create that report for several years despite requests from within the dept. and from me. They would create it for me when I asked a cpl years ago and I was quoted $2500. The problem was, as a Govt agency that report was still subject to Freedom of Information Act requests and I really didn't want to spend my money to provide Eastmans/huntin fool/hunters trailhead with info. Sorry Guy.

Because of the NR 10% cap, many hunts hit that cap in the Bonus Pass draw. There are then zero tags available for the remaining NR applicants to draw in the 1-2 pass (random draw). So, even though you have a statistical chance, because it's possible not all tags will fill in the Bonus Pass, in reality, if you are not in the max pool for a given hunt that routinely caps out, you have zero chance to draw a tag.

For archery, you need to look at the Bonus Pass draw odds and you can see the minimum points that it took to draw. There will usually be a cpl point levels that are spanned. Knowing that half of those drawn were NR, you can kind of tell where you need to be to get in the max pool for a given hunt. In addition, when looking at that Bonus Pass report, you will see gaps where some applied and did not draw, but those with lower point totals did draw. The Bonus Pass report does not exclude apps that drew their 1st choice and were unable to draw when their number was pulled. The report also does not exclude applicants that had their CC bounced, or NR that were drawn after the cap was hit. As a result, you can not always assume that "gap" is where the NR cap is hit.

Based on years of hard data, the only early archery hunts you can draw in the 1-2 pass are the mid tier units; 4-6 and 11's. Also to note: There were only 66 tags a NR could draw in the 1-2 pass, early archery, and there were over 30,000 1st/2nd choice apps vying for those tags. As a NR you're competing with all of them as well as the other NR.

Fortunately, things are changing in AZ. Well, fortunate for some. A Bonus pass draw report that breaks out the res/nr at the point level is on the "radar" but the Dept is making other computer updates that take precedent. I was told the report won't be available for 2015 but probable 2016. When that report comes to fruition, you as an applicant will be able to see exactly where you are in the line and how many are at your same point level. It will provide you with the information you need to make an educated decision on where to apply. There are other changes being made and again, those will be in place for 2016. Those changes will go thru the Article One Rules process and the dept will hold public meetings on them.

I have never seen a persons random number published and would assume that Guy's number 00002 was his tag number. The way he would draw that tag without being the #2 app in the max pool is when the first #2 had his CC rejected or was ineligible for another reason. After the Bonus /1-2 draws are done, they re issue the tags from the bounced apps, to the next in line. Guy could have been the first "unsuccessful" app in the 1-2 pass and they gave him the #2 tag. They re issue those tags starting from the top. I drew a low number tag for unit 1 last year and that's how I was drawn. I was one of the first "alternates".


UH said: "What I particularly don't like about stating incorrect draw odds in a widely publicized magazine is that it creates the impression with many applicants that a tag can actually be drawn, and people spend their money with that assumption."

I offered in a moment of weakness. Needless to say ......

edit:
If an app has zero points, they are not included in the Bonus pass draw, they can only draw in the 1-2 pass.


So I ask, how much information should be available?
I get hate mail every time I mention the AZ pass thru tag units. I got hate mail when I explained why a WY NR Special GEN tag was 100% as a 2nd choice. Eastmans gets blamed for the crappy odds in every western state. It seems like providing information so others can enjoy what we do, isn't really all it's cracked up to be.

Enjoy your hunts.

 

[Musket Man]

WOW! Im sure glad I dont apply in Arizona!!!

 

[WapitiBob]

Late archery Elk and late rifle Elk have low max point levels and enough pass thru tags to get drawn regularly.

 

[Guy]

My AZ tag was tag #2. I have no idea which draw I got it in. I'm just glad I don't work in the AZ IT dept, what a mess of a system. I guess the problem is, a state risks giving out too much information to guys like us, who then tell everyone what the "real" odds are, which causes a more harm than good scenario as people realize how bad their odds really are. If guys get too discouraged then they quite applying.

Maybe they will give us some better reports to work with in the future so we can get more accurate draw odd information, if you want to ruin your day with that kind of thing anyway. Glad I don't have to write the AZ MRS.

G-

 

[kiddwinner]

Im actually more confused after all that! Ill just put in and hope for the best! I appreciate everyone taking time to help explain.

 

[Musket Man]

Are the odds posted in the MRS overall resident and non resident combined (total tags vs total applicants, with no regard to points) drawing odds?

I will use the elk 3B ML hunt for an example since it has the best draw odds of any elk hunt in the MRS. 200 tags, and 31% drawing odds. realistically as a NR with no points if I were to apply for this hunt what chance would I have of drawing or how many points would I need to have a reasonable chance at drawing?

 

[WapitiBob]

Guy, you were either, the first alternate and were given tag #2 when the original applicant was disqualified, OR, you were in the Bonus Pass with max points for that hunt and simply drew the tag.
The dept knows the new report will let their customers know how bad things are, if they didn't already, which is why the changes are coming.

Kid, you had zero chance to draw that tag. You were nowhere close to being in the max pool for 27 and there have not been any tags available in the 1-2 pass (random draw) for the last 4 years that I have been getting the stats.

Edit
Musket, I had the wrong hunt. I'll take another look when I get a minute.

 

[swampokie]

This is why I like Idaho and nm. Primo unit odds horrible but predictable with the system in place

 

[NDHunter]

Umpqua, so let's say in theory that a unit has 100 tags available. 20 of those tags will get issued in the bonus pass. Let's say 10 non-residents have max points or close to it and draw 10 of those tags. That meets the 10% non-resident cap and so no tags will be available after that for the 1-2 pass. Is that correct?

 

[Alabama]

Umpqua, so let's say in theory that a unit has 100 tags available. 20 of those tags will get issued in the bonus pass. Let's say 10 non-residents have max points or close to it and draw 10 of those tags. That meets the 10% non-resident cap and so no tags will be available after that for the 1-2 pass. Is that correct?

Yep. And the only way I see that you can be sure is if you look at the bonus pass and see that someone in the lower point pool drew a tag over someone else with more points. In that case the person with more points was a non-resident and the 10% cap was then in effect. This will only get more prevalent in the future as more and more non-residents reach the top point levels.

 

[gonhunting247]

WapitiBob, Umpqua, Guy,
That is great information, I appreciate you taking the time to explain all this! I would take me years to dig out the info to gain the knowledge that is given here! THANKS AGAIN!

 

[WapitiBob]

Yep. And the only way I see that you can be sure is if you look at the bonus pass and see that someone in the lower point pool drew a tag over someone else with more points. In that case the person with more points was a non-resident and the 10% cap was then in effect. This will only get more prevalent in the future as more and more non-residents reach the top point levels.

Not always true because the Bonus Pass draw report shows all applicants that applied, and the tags after they were issued. The report does not remove the applicants that drew their 1st choice in another hunt, had their CC refused, or were otherwise bounced from the draw.

 

[kiddwinner]

So Im still looking at 0% chance?