Wyoming sheep and moose.. Is it possible?

[Fink]

So, I'm sitting here, trying to avoid doing any real work, and was looking at possibly considering starting to build points in Wyoming for a future moose or sheep hunt. At 31 years old, and with 0 points, it would most likely be impossible to draw a high demand unit in my lifetime, but is it possible to draw a good 'green chip' unit by the time I'm 50? 55?

Currently, the top non resident point holders have 19 points for both moose and sheep. By my math, 15 years will have cleared out point holders 13-19 for sheep (60 tags per year, plus some attrition), and 12-19 for moose. It also looks like for the first 5-6 years of point building, roughly 500-600 people drop out.. Which would mean by the time I had 15 points, the top point holder would have about 27, and there would be roughly 7500 moose point holders in front of me, and about 6500 sheep applicants in front.

I'm pretty sure I just answered my question, knowing how many apps would still be in front of me.... But, I'm curious to hear the thoughts of some of you guys that have been in the points game for many years (looking at you, Umpqua, the statistical genius and preference point expert).. I don't want to just "apply, apply, apply" if there is really no chance to ever draw.. But, if I had a legitimate chance to draw the tag in 15-20 years, I'd consider it.

Is it possible? Is it worth it?

 

[QuazyQuinton]

I'm in the same place as you, only about 5 years older (meaning I'll be too old to hunt 5 years sooner than you ). I've been looking over the numbers, and there is simply no way to make it look pretty. The thing that bothers me most is the tidal wave of point holders in the 10-12 point range. When those point classes start drawing, it's going to drive some crazy point creep. It's all an unknown, but some unknowns look worse than others.

15 years I can manage. 20 years would still be worth it. 30+ years? Crazy. If nothing else, something will change in the draw system, and who knows what all those points will be worth?

On the other hand, you can't win if you don't play the game.

QQ

 

[buckbull]

Just save your money and plan on going to Canada for moose and sheep. You can shoot a moose alot cheaper in eastern Canada and they are bigger than the shiras. Hell, its cheaper to go over to asia and kill a marco polo than it is a big horn.

 

[hoshour]

You'll want to read the next EBJ in which Guy addresses this issue.

 

[Ridgerunner]

I'd save my money and head north for a sure thing.

 

[Umpqua Hunter]

Fink, you have a good grasp on the situation.

I've dropped my wife and three sons out of the sheep and moose point chase in Wyoming since they were too far behind.

I drew a Wyoming moose tag in 1999. I put in with my dad for a unit we could draw and he and my mom passed away that summer. Took a long break with the family in Wyoming and got a nice moose on a 45 minute hunt. I now have 9 points for moose again and am thinking of throwing in the towel but still sorting that out. I am almost 50 and am trying to determine if I'll catch a tag before I'm 70. I've drawn three Shiras moose tags though so that kinda affects my decision.

I think in the next 10-15 years states are gonna have to address a very top heavy point system, particularly on once in a lifetime tags like sheep and moose. It has happened before that states just decide to discontinue their point systems, so enter at your own risk

On a positive note, wolves are now being hunted which should help the moose population rebound, and with that will come more hunting opportunities. The units around Yellowstone have very low tag numbers compared to the wolf reintroduction.

 

[Eberle]

I'd go somewhere it was a for sure deal!

 

[Triple BB]

You'll probably draw if you live long enough. I'd think about a couple things before I bailed if I was 31. First, let's say yer making $40k a year or whatever. And applying for points at this time might look like a waste of money given yer current income level. If yer in a profession where you might be making double or triple what yer making now in 15 - 25 years, the cost of those points might look like nickles and dimes. Also, there's a chance you'll see legislation change at some point. The G&F threw out the idea a few years ago about making 50% of the sheep and moose tags random draw. It never went anywhere, but who knows what will come along in 10 - 15 years. If so, you might be kicking yerself for not staying in the game. I apply for Colorado moose every year and have 11 points or so. My odds of drawing are something like a 1/2% and don't seem to improve much thanks to point creep. Will I ever draw, probably not. Is the cost to apply too expensive, for some maybe. When I was yer age I'd have said forget it. Now, its all relative...

 

[QuazyQuinton]

So Umpqua, are you talking about abandoning Wyoming to focus on bonus-point and/or random draw states instead?

QQ

 

[Fink]

Lots of good points here, thanks guys. My two biggest fears are looking back in 15 years, and realizing I would have had the points necessary to draw the tag; and getting invested in the game and having it totally changed up (or eliminated) on me.
I think it will be very interesting to see what happens when states end up with units that are taking 30 points to draw.. At what point will people quit entering the game, and at what point to people start bowing out, knowing they are no longer in shape to hunt, even if they spent 30 years gathering points...

I think Buckbull has it right, I'll just buy a hunt in Canada when the time comes.

 

[tim]

look at Idaho for moose and sheep.

 

[Ridgerunner]

You might pull a random tag too.

 

[buckbull]

I think Buckbull has it right, I'll just buy a hunt in Canada when the time comes.

Maybe/Maybe not. When I was close to your age I agonized over the issue as well and actually had points in wyoming for moose and sheep, but only 2 each. Odds are I wouldn't have drawn, and didn't want to draw when I was too old to enjoy the hunt. I decided to turn to canada for a guaranteed hunt.

So, I setup a separate savings account and have $50 per pay check deposited into it, so about $100 per month. That was about 10 years ago so you can do the math. I'm 41 now and over halfway to a hunt of a lifetime, and should be able to accomplish it before I'm 50. If CD's paid worth a crap the last decade I would probably be alot closer. Anyway, that's the road i'm taking.

 

[Musket Man]

Trophy species drawing odds are steep no matter where you go in the lower 48. Doing the math on alot of units you can see that many applicants will never draw a tag in their lifetime. Still someone has to draw and you could get very lucky and get a tag. I would not start applying in areas where you have no chance of drawing without being at the top of the points pool. Even if the odds are very low with none or just a few points atleast you have some chance of drawing. States with out a point system may have the best chance for drawing if you are starting out now without any points. I only apply in Nevada and my home state of Washington. Both have a bonus points system where I have some chance of drawing and I dont have to put up alot of money just to apply.

 

[30Hart]

UH hit it on the head, the wolf population is on the decline and if the moose population rebounds to just year 2000-2001 levels there will be double the harvest and double the tags…once that happens again we'll go through higher point groups pretty quickly and those mid-tier guys will be sitting pretty good…a gamble yes, but only a $75 a year gamble at that…come on boys?

 

[AKaviator]

Fink,
You can always come up to Alaska for your moose. It takes some planning but most out-of-state hunts do. Our unit 18 is at an all time high level for moose population. The Dillingham/Togiak areas are producing some real big bulls and it can all be DIY. Sheep hunting requires a guide but we have some good ones. We have a few bad ones too so do your research before signing with them.

If you ever want to give it a try, send me a p.m. and I can help you get started.

 

[Fink]

Fink,
You can always come up to Alaska for your moose. It takes some planning but most out-of-state hunts do. Our unit 18 is at an all time high level for moose population. The Dillingham/Togiak areas are producing some real big bulls and it can all be DIY. Sheep hunting requires a guide but we have some good ones. We have a few bad ones too so do your research before signing with them.

If you ever want to give it a try, send me a p.m. and I can help you get started.

Alaska is definitely happening in the future, but it seems like a large percentage of the moose tags are OTC, so it's just a matter of planning the hunt. When I'm ready to start getting serious about it, I'll certainly look you up.

30Hart, I did consider the wolf population declining, as people begin hunting them, it's part of what got me even considering starting to build points. And you're right, if WY can increase the tag allotments, quite a few of those point groups will get ran though much quicker.

Thanks again for everyone's thoughts on the matter.

 

[Steve O]

Lots of good points here, thanks guys. My two biggest fears are looking back in 15 years, and realizing I would have had the points necessary to draw the tag; and getting invested in the game and having it totally changed up (or eliminated) on me.
I think it will be very interesting to see what happens when states end up with units that are taking 30 points to draw.. At what point will people quit entering the game, and at what point to people start bowing out, knowing they are no longer in shape to hunt, even if they spent 30 years gathering points...

I think Buckbull has it right, I'll just buy a hunt in Canada when the time comes.

Last time I looked, Bighorn hunts in Alberta were at least $25,000. I don't have that kind of money laying around so I am in all (well, most) of the draws. I've had an archery Bighorn tag in CO, a rifle and archery elk tag in AZ, and an AZ strip rifle deer tag among many others. I've got a lot of points in many other states and unfortunately started applying in WY for sheep one year too late, but am getting close. I started a few years before you did, but I would start building points everywhere you can. In the blink of an eye you will be 45 (especially if you have any kids) wondering where the time went. You will draw tags if you keep putting in! There are guys every year that draw sheep tags in the random every year in Wyoming.

 

[tomcat]

I have drawn a bighorn tag in Wyoming and took a nice ram. I was in the point chase from day one. I am back in it with 7 points at age 56. I don't know if I will ever draw again, but there is always a chance in the random draw, if you choose units with enough tags.
The truth is, if you want to hunt sheep you should apply in every state that offers tags. Idaho offers a decent chance to draw because you can only apply for one species a year and people have to choose between sheep and goats, moose, etc. Any way you cut it, sheep hunting is not possible on a regular basis unless you have lots of money, but you can draw a tag if you are persistent and have a little luck. It will not be cheap.
I believe that many of the people currently applying for sheep tags and moose tags are much older than you are and will stop applying before they draw. Some will die, some will draw and some will give up for one reason or another. I have missed out on a lot of future tags because I just did not start applying when I was younger. If I was 31, I would apply, apply, apply. You will be drawing when you are my age.
I am also in the Wyoming moose tag hunt and may draw next year. With 13 points I can draw a lot of units, but not all. You don't have to have the max to draw in a decent unit. APPLY.

You can go to Canada for a minimum of $6,500 for Canadian Moose, but that is a cheap trip today and may not be successful. Ultimately you will still want a Shiras, so APPLY. Good Luck.

 

[Joe Schaffer]

I don't have the data to support this, but one thing that is very likely to happen is to see many of the top point holders reach the age where they cannot hunt, or pass away. We have a window (if the market continues to improve) where there will be a lot of retired baby boomers who will have expendable income, points, and the time to hunt across the west. Many of those may give up on the points game and head north as has been suggested. But just by shear numbers within the different generations, I have to imagine that many, if not most of the top point holders are nearing, if not at retirement age. So at least for me, I am in the point game (even though I did start when I was in my early 30's) because I think many of the points that are out there may go away as a result of aging and death and there are a lot fewer Gen Xer's that may be able to yet slide in still draw.

I could be completely off, but it would be a pretty interesting demographic study if you could get those data along with the points data for each state (hint, hint Eastman's for future MRS or mag articles).