Wyoming Leftover Tags - 2018

[wy-tex]

Most season quotas are released in April or May at season setting meetings across the state.
They will also release population numbers and estimates at those meetings.

 

[WapitiBob]

Party apps count as 1 application, but remove multiple tags from the pool.

Every 1st choice app is in the draw and every one of those apps is shown in the demand reports. A party of 6 will show as 6 1st choice apps in the reports.
You can prove it to yourself by looking at a PP report and compare the "issued" column to the 1st choice app column. You will never see more issued than 1st choice apps.

and, referencing my earlier comment, you don't see "issued" on many reports. You're not seeing what you think you're seeing....


a screen shot showing party apps:

 

[WapitiBob]

When will tag allocation reports be released?

nr Elk quotas should be done this week then sent to the Fiscal Division in another week or so

 

[Bonecollector]

Thanks Bob. Care if I send you a pm on my thoughts before submission?

 

[Prerylyon]

Sorry for beating a dead [emoji206].

So, in the plane-jane draw reports on the WYGF website, due to the 'simplicity' of the data in those reports, since party applications are not broken out, a straight calculation of draw odds, as I outlined in my earlier post, is always overly optimistic.

Using my original 50 'tags' and 200 'applications' example-but with the twist of party apps, let's pretend the 1st 10 'applications' drawn are 'parties of 5', and remaining 190 application are individual applications ( I know this is all fictious-bear with me), the draw odds come out to 10/200, with relation to the 'applications', so 5%.

5% is a lot lower that 50/200, or 25%...[emoji6]

Regards,

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I337Z using Tapatalk

 

[WapitiBob]

Every app is in the draw, none are combined. It's semantics because the result is the same, because all party members have the same random number, so they all get the license. Steve at toprut addresses it on his site and it may make a difference of a percentage point or so. Nothing to get twisted up about.

What people miss, is the number of issued licenses. A demand report that shows quota and the number of applicants, isn't showing the number of licenses "issued". That is a big deal in WY, where a reduced price app can be for 2 licenses. Not so much for Antlerless Elk but most assuredly so for doe/fawn Deer and Antelope.

 

[Prerylyon]

You'd think someone like me that uses higher math and stats daily in his work would easily grasp all this. [emoji23] lol

So-and I am not looking for a debate-just understanding-it now sounds like the party applications don't reduce the basic odds in these reduced price WY draws in a purely mathematical sense?

But, if parties draw out 'bundles of tags', unless more tags get issued, it would seem that you have less odd as an individual-as you said in your earlier post-I always agreed (think I still do) with your logic.

Do they just issue more tags if that random number assigned to the party get pulled and they're running short (something I have heard online in various forums over the years)? Is that what the 'tags issued' thing is all about?

Like, I get the mathematics of each application (party or not) having a sole random number to weigh the odds evenly-but then if a party gets pulled instead of an individual, and there are less tags left in that round of the 1st choice draw than the number in the party? Get where I'm going?
Again, just trying to understand-appreciate the patience; this is all good natured discussion. I will look at topruts explanation to further my understanding.

Regards,


Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I337Z using Tapatalk

 

[WapitiBob]

WY will fill a party, up to 6 licenses, if there is only 1 remaining. They then deduct the overage when doing their quota balance house keeping prior to the 3rd phase of the draw.