Utah Draw Results, AHHHH EASTMANS FAKEOUT!!!

[llp]

WP,
I think you are making a mountain out of a mole hill. It is irrelevant if "all applications are in the preference point draw". While technically true, as Guy explained, in a high demand unit requiring lots of preference points, those with zero or few points aren't going to draw a tag in the preference point round, when there aren't enough tags for those with max points. The low points holders aren't actually considered in the draw, although they technically are "in the draw". Pointless semantics. It does matter, of course, in an undersubscribed or low demand unit requiring 0-1 points. But that really isn't the intention of the MRS. It is intended to summarize what is often many, many pages of state regs into a concise summary. Summaries by their very nature don't include every detail.

I do agree the Utah draw results date was just from three years ago when tags were drawn in April. That mistake should have been caught. But everyone makes mistakes. And most states make if purposely difficult to really know the true odds. They don't want us to know or most wouldn't participate. These systems aren't designed to be transparent, or even fair, whatever that means. They are government run ponzi schemes, and participate at your own risk. I assess each state, and do participate in some of them.
llp

 

[Topgun 30-06]

llp---I believe you completely missed the whole point of the statement WapitiBob made and that was the fact that more than just people without PPs are in the random draw that is held last. Everyone with PPs that don't draw in their initial draws are given a second equal chance in that last draw, thus resulting in ones with no PPs having a lesser chance of drawing one of the remaining tags than if it was just held for them with a lesser number of applicants in the pool. I also don't think your statement about most states making it purposely difficult to know the true draw odds is quite a fair and accurate statement. If a person takes a little time for a state and knows a little math it's not that difficult to know whether you stand a snowballs chance in he** or a decent chance at a particular tag. Wyoming, for example, has all the odds posted for the various draws and it's not that difficult to figure out where you stand in getting a tag, except that some people don't take the point creep into consideration and it can make a difference if you don't project that into your choice(s).

 

[WapitiBob]

The MRS doesn't need to include every detail, but accurate information is an opportunity to become an actual research vehicle rather than a portal for wrong information such as huntin fool and hunters trailhead. It does take some work and perhaps being just another hunting magazine with bad information is good enough.

The reality is, that graphic has been wrong since the day it was made, and as a result people with zero points think they're only in the random pool. I've had that discussion many times and they used that graphic to support their claim . Is it a big deal? I guess it depends if you're the guy trying to draw a tag. In addition, simply re working draw reports and posting the odds does a disservice to those looking for accurate guidance on where to apply when those draw reports don't provide the information people assume they do. An Elk Special GEN tag has been 100% as a 2nd choice from day one and will continue to be 100% for at least a few more years. The Regular GEN 1st choice isn't 100% but the odds were better in 2014 by 174 tags.

AZ isn't that hard to figure out if anybody would take the time to get the information needed. Obviously none of the mags or services are willing to take that time and continue to post information that isn't close to accurate. Pretty darn hard to have 16% odds for a unit 27 archery tag with 8 points when 10 was the minimum in the 20% Pass draw and there wasn't a NR tag available in the 1-2 Pass (random draw); and people pay for that information. It's my opinion that paying customers would appreciate knowing the minimum points needed to draw a tag as well as which units have they zero chance of drawing unless they have that minimum number. It's not difficult but it appears nobody is willing to do that and you end up with ridiculous odds.

My point is, you can lead with accurate information and become known as the leader or just be one of the crowd. "It's not right but good enough" seems to be norm now days. When it comes to a draw process or odds, if I see incorrect information being given out, I say something. Just one of my peeves. No doubt the delivery could be better but I'd like others to enjoy what I've been doing for about 50 years and they can't do it without a tag.

 

[Musket Man]

As I see it if no one applying has any points everyone is in a random draw. The tags in the PP draw go to the highest point holders, then everyone that doesnt draw in the PP draw goes into the random draw. If no one has any points and there are more applicants then tags in the PP draw then everyone that didnt draw would be in the random draw but I cant see how it makes alot of difference since no one would have any preference over anyone else at that point. I think the info in the MRS is referring to hunts that take several points to draw.

 

[Topgun 30-06]

As I see it if no one applying has any points everyone is in a random draw. The tags in the PP draw go to the highest point holders, then everyone that doesnt draw in the PP draw goes into the random draw. If no one has any points and there are more applicants then tags in the PP draw then everyone that didnt draw would be in the random draw but I cant see how it makes alot of difference since no one would have any preference over anyone else at that point. I think the info in the MRS is referring to hunts that take several points to draw.

You completely lost me on that post Bro! The whole gist of it is that everyone who didn't have enough PPs to draw a tag then has a second chance that is equal to ones who have no PPs in that final random draw. That fact that they are going into a second draw makes it less likely that a person with no PPs will draw a tag than if they were only in it by themselves, which is basicly what is stated in the MRS section and I believe what Guy has stated needs to be reworded so it is fully understood by newer people getting into the game.

 

[Musket Man]

You completely lost me on that post Bro! The whole gist of it is that everyone who didn't have enough PPs to draw a tag then has a second chance that is equal to ones who have no PPs in that final random draw. That fact that they are going into a second draw makes it less likely that a person with no PPs will draw a tag than if they were only in it by themselves, which is basicly what is stated in the MRS section and I believe what Guy has stated needs to be reworded so it is fully understood by newer people getting into the game.

I think you lost me too. lol.

 

[WapitiBob]

If all that apply for a given hunt, have 0 points, they are all in the PP drawing for that hunt (special or regular) but no one will have a point advantage because they're all in the same point pool. If 100 apply for 10 tags, the remaining 90 people drop down to the random draw and try for those tags. Your 1st choice follows you from the PP draw down to the random draw.
Looking at the Special Elk GEN draw report, when the PP draw is completed at the lowest point bracket, (which was 0 points) there were 697 tags and 1088 applicants leaving 391 without tags. Going to the Special Random GEN draw report we see the 391 applicants that came from the PP draw listed under the 1st choice column. Because of the number of tags issued, those 391 had zero points but in other hunt codes those dropping down to the random could have had 8. Once in the random draw, points no longer matter. The dept issues a 2nd random number when you first apply and the purpose of that 2nd number is to ensure there is no tie between the PP draw and the Random draw for any applicant. There used to be a rumor running around that a computer glitch allowed your ranking from the PP draw to carry down to the Random draw but that 2nd random number ensures that can't happen.
The above process is the same for every hunt code whether the top point guys have 8 points or 0.

Another aspect often misunderstood is where the leftovers go.
Both Special PP and Special Random leftovers are pooled with the original 60% Random quota and split 75/25 Regular PP and Regular Random. The Special PP leftovers do not go to the Regular PP draw. This is done on a "per hunt" basis just like the original Res/NR split.

 

[Joleary]

I was in the same boat.

 

[Elkoholic307]

So, who's right... Guy or Wapiti?

 

[WapitiBob]

I'll put $100 on Wapiti.......



I took my medicine and am feeling better today so.......
For the 2014 NR draw the dept added 466 tags to the Elk Special Random Gen and filled out the 2nd choice apps. They then went to the Regular Random Gen and added 174. That number will enable you to accurately calculate your Regular Random Gen odds. They converted 640 NR licenses to GEN for 2014.

 

[Musket Man]

Where to these added tags come from and why dont they show up in the draw stats?

 

[WapitiBob]

The draw reports only reflect that portion of the draw where the initial allocation of nr tags occur ( the nr 16%). After that allocation of tags the dept goes back to make sure we are awarded 7,250 full price tags, as mandated by legislation. If not, they convert leftover LE tags to gen and go back thru the special gen then regular gen to fill the gap up to our full 7,250.
All you have to do is ask them. Kinda like getting the nr elk quota before the nr draw. Everybody simply says they aren't out till may and leaves it. Think about it for a sec, unless they're going to call you on the phone and ask for the tag back, they have to have a quota.....
I had those quotas and other than some paperwork it wasn't a big deal. Those quotas won't be a factor anymore cause they're moving the nr elk draw to May 31 (more than likely).

 

[Fink]

I had those quotas and other than some paperwork it wasn't a big deal. Those quotas won't be a factor anymore cause they're moving the nr elk draw to May 31 (more than likely).

Dang it! I love the current elk draw dates.