When applying for elk tags, do you guys consider success rates over draw odds or would you rather have the opportunity to hunt rather than a better chance at an elk?
Success rates vs. Draw odds
- Thread starter prhunter
- Start date
Work2hunt
Veteran member
I guess it depends on what you are looking for. In general, higher draw odds equate to a hunt that is managed for better trophy caliber potential. Higher success could mean several things from weather, quantity of animals, to lack of hunting pressure, etc.
But, I like to hunt more often than not and as many here will point out.....I would rather hunt a unit every year or couple years to really get to know the unit and the animals in the unit then hunt it once every 20 years and have no history with this unit.
But, I like to hunt more often than not and as many here will point out.....I would rather hunt a unit every year or couple years to really get to know the unit and the animals in the unit then hunt it once every 20 years and have no history with this unit.
This is based on my 4 late season cow elk hunts which are in January. You're probably talking about bull tags but I think the same principal applies.
The success rate in the unit I hunt over that time period is anywhere from 17%-24% with a high of 170 tags during those years.
I have a success rate of 75% only because I missed the shot on my only opportunity the first year, otherwise I would be 100%.
The draw odds are 2 to 1 so they are pretty easy to draw. The low success rate tells me that most guys are not willing to work hard for just a cow.
Like Work2hunt said if you learn an area well and you are willing to work harder than other hunters your success rate will be better than the average, Low success rates don't always mean there are few animals.
The success rate in the unit I hunt over that time period is anywhere from 17%-24% with a high of 170 tags during those years.
I have a success rate of 75% only because I missed the shot on my only opportunity the first year, otherwise I would be 100%.
The draw odds are 2 to 1 so they are pretty easy to draw. The low success rate tells me that most guys are not willing to work hard for just a cow.
Like Work2hunt said if you learn an area well and you are willing to work harder than other hunters your success rate will be better than the average, Low success rates don't always mean there are few animals.
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Fink
Veteran member
Success rates are one of the last things I look at.... Way too many people little or no effort into their hunt, and won't be successful. Others pass on countless animals, looking for a great big one, and wont be successful... there are way more important factors than success rate.
Maybe if success rates are extremely low, do some more digging, and find out why.. But, generally you've already found out why success is so low: extreme terrain, low animal density, bad season dates, etc..
Maybe if success rates are extremely low, do some more digging, and find out why.. But, generally you've already found out why success is so low: extreme terrain, low animal density, bad season dates, etc..
JimP
Administrator
I usually go with the draw odds.
The success rate is a number that the DOW gives to a unit, it may be correct and then it might not be. I know hunters that lie whenever they get a questionnaire on weather or not they harvested a animal. But you can almost guarantee that if the draw odds are high then that unit has better animals in it and you might have a better chance of success.
The success rate is a number that the DOW gives to a unit, it may be correct and then it might not be. I know hunters that lie whenever they get a questionnaire on weather or not they harvested a animal. But you can almost guarantee that if the draw odds are high then that unit has better animals in it and you might have a better chance of success.
I'm always leary of success rates. I hunt an archery OTC unit that boasts success rates in the 5% range year after year but my buddies and I have experienced consistent successful there through the years. The two observations I have with this situation was 1 those that put in great effort are rewarded and 2 the success stats for this state are based on random sampling and I don't know that I've ever been sampled. Sure I love to see gaudy success stats and it likely indicates good quality/quantity but it doesn't tell the whole story and wouldn't necessarily be a reason to rule a unit out.
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NDHunter
Veteran member
Like others have said, I don't put a ton of emphasis on success rates. I'm more looking for areas that I can walk in a ways that have limited pressure as I know animals will be in there somewhere. And like Fink said, some guys pass on lots of animals, looking for a big one. I was in a good elk unit this fall and ran into one local who said "I ain't pulling the trigger unless it's 350." I also think he had said he's never shot an elk before...
Joe Schmo
Member
- Jan 14, 2017
- 132
- 9
many that say that have never even seen a 350 bull. nor would they know it if they did.Many people that say that have never passed on a 320" standing broadside...
350 bull would be purty on the wall but a good cow's better eatin.
Slugz
Veteran member
I consider.
Herd size, bull to cow ratio and National Forest land. Nothing more than those three.
Herd size, bull to cow ratio and National Forest land. Nothing more than those three.
tdub24
Veteran member
Slugz, do you typically get that information from calling game biologists or do you find that on the world wide web??
swampokie
Veteran member
Hunt dates have a lot to do with success rates of course. Sometimes I try to put in for a less desirable hunt date knowing that its easier to draw and that the same animals will be there if your willing to work a little harder.
Slugz
Veteran member
CDOW puts herd size/bull to cow ratio out every spring. They also put it out in the Colorado Outdoors magazine published by CDOW.
I start with that then look at where its readily apparent they are over objective in an area/GMU......cross that with the bull to cow ratio and you can get a pretty good idea what size the herd bulls are in there.
tdub24
Veteran member
HuskyMusky
Veteran member
I've been looking more and more at success rates lately, after having some bad skunked hunts.
Depending on the # of tags for a particular hunt, there are other hunters like YOU out there, and if success rates are very low vs very high vs average can tell you a lot IMO.
Sure you can hunt hard, etc... and improve your chances, but I think they can tell you a lot.
Depending on the # of tags for a particular hunt, there are other hunters like YOU out there, and if success rates are very low vs very high vs average can tell you a lot IMO.
Sure you can hunt hard, etc... and improve your chances, but I think they can tell you a lot.
Prerylyon
Veteran member
This is a great thread, really enjoy reading everyone's thoughts and opinions on the topic.
Still new to western big game hunting, with limited seasons afield under my belt; right or wrong, I do put some weight on the success rate. Taken into account with other measures like hunter density and public land availability, it helps me understand if an area's hunt is more a numbers hunt vs a trophy hunt-like fishing a trout stream managed for limited take of trophy fish vs one managed to let you take a stringer of eaters home for the fry pan. But, its still my subjective interpretation of the numbers. That analogy could be off depending on the specifics of an area.
Some of my read on the success rate may be purely psychological? If the success rate is less than 30%, I start to overthink it and maybe get less interested in applying to the area in question.
1000 miles away from the area, with maybe 1 scouting trip possible this summer, and a year's allowance on the table, it's easy to let that success rate take more meaning that maybe it should?
But, I get what you guys are saying. Once I settle on a time of year and geographical region for a hunt (based on fish and game biological reports, info from other hunters, personal interest), public land access is my 1st cut to cull areas. Next, I make a little table where I look at hunter density, success rate, and draw odds all at the same time for the areas that remain on my list. I order them based on hunter density and success rate to see how they line up against each other, then, let the draw odds make the decisions. Low odds is 1st pick, highest odds is last. All this is for a cow tag I hope to pull. Gonna wait some years til I have more points and finances are better to go for a bull, but will let the cow hunts learn me units for when that time comes.
Regards,
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Still new to western big game hunting, with limited seasons afield under my belt; right or wrong, I do put some weight on the success rate. Taken into account with other measures like hunter density and public land availability, it helps me understand if an area's hunt is more a numbers hunt vs a trophy hunt-like fishing a trout stream managed for limited take of trophy fish vs one managed to let you take a stringer of eaters home for the fry pan. But, its still my subjective interpretation of the numbers. That analogy could be off depending on the specifics of an area.
Some of my read on the success rate may be purely psychological? If the success rate is less than 30%, I start to overthink it and maybe get less interested in applying to the area in question.
1000 miles away from the area, with maybe 1 scouting trip possible this summer, and a year's allowance on the table, it's easy to let that success rate take more meaning that maybe it should?
But, I get what you guys are saying. Once I settle on a time of year and geographical region for a hunt (based on fish and game biological reports, info from other hunters, personal interest), public land access is my 1st cut to cull areas. Next, I make a little table where I look at hunter density, success rate, and draw odds all at the same time for the areas that remain on my list. I order them based on hunter density and success rate to see how they line up against each other, then, let the draw odds make the decisions. Low odds is 1st pick, highest odds is last. All this is for a cow tag I hope to pull. Gonna wait some years til I have more points and finances are better to go for a bull, but will let the cow hunts learn me units for when that time comes.
Regards,
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Prerylyon
Veteran member
Its easy to over analyze any of this data. How does that old saying go? "Figures lie, liars figure." That is not directed at anyone, myself included! lol
I guess in my pea brain, if an area is smaller, and may have access issues to begin with, plus I'm already out of state and basically cluess about it; the number of active hunters gives me an idea of how pressured the animals might be during that season.
But, I totally get your point. On a smaller scale, I see this in Iowa. We have very little public land to hunt and a lot more is getting locked up in leases for the deer. However, there are larger tracts of public, some approaching (go ahead and laugh!
) 2,000 acres or more that have some bruiser bucks on them. Yet, if you looked at the hunter density figures for the county where that land is, you might twice of hunting it. In fact, because those public lands are off limits to trucks or ATVs, few people hunt them. Walk 1/2 mile from the parking area, and you will see few hunters and some nice deer-on public land, in IA. Folks don't want to deal with a long drag done on foot. It just proves there is no substitute for boots on the ground experience.
Regards,
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I guess in my pea brain, if an area is smaller, and may have access issues to begin with, plus I'm already out of state and basically cluess about it; the number of active hunters gives me an idea of how pressured the animals might be during that season.
But, I totally get your point. On a smaller scale, I see this in Iowa. We have very little public land to hunt and a lot more is getting locked up in leases for the deer. However, there are larger tracts of public, some approaching (go ahead and laugh!
) 2,000 acres or more that have some bruiser bucks on them. Yet, if you looked at the hunter density figures for the county where that land is, you might twice of hunting it. In fact, because those public lands are off limits to trucks or ATVs, few people hunt them. Walk 1/2 mile from the parking area, and you will see few hunters and some nice deer-on public land, in IA. Folks don't want to deal with a long drag done on foot. It just proves there is no substitute for boots on the ground experience. Regards,
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