Should I apply or wait?

[BigSexy]

Hi all.
I've been banking points for a WYO goat for a while and now have 6pp built up. I'm pretty set on unit 67. I was going to apply this year, and hope to draw. I think I'll have a chance with 6pp if I'm reading the draw results right, or if I do the special draw, almost guaranteed. My question however is this. In that unit 67, how affected do you think the herd will be from winter kill? I've been trying to keep tabs and it seems like WYO has been getting hammered this winter? Should I risk 6 years of points, or wait another year?? Unfortunately living in eastern Nebraska doesn't allow me to scout very easily. Not looking for anyone's honey hole, just trying to gain info on winter kill...

 

[Hilltop]

The next 6 weeks weather will have a huge impact on winter kill. Wet/cold spring storms are very hard on winter weakened animals out west. I would wait to see how it goes and decide some time in May since apps aren't due until May 31st. I would also rely on biologists and area wardens for at least some of your information as rumors can run wild online.

 

[Flyforfun]

The next 6 weeks weather will have a huge impact on winter kill. Wet/cold spring storms are very hard on winter weakened animals out west. I would wait to see how it goes and decide some time in May since apps aren't due until May 31st. I would also rely on biologists and area wardens for at least some of your information as rumors can run wild online.

I'm waiting as well to decide where to apply. Being able to wait until May is huge.

 

[johnsd16]

In 2016, <7 pp was a 0% draw for 67 in the regular. To be 100% in the regular it took <8, and 7pp was only 68%. In the special it took <7 to be 100%, and 6pp was 78%. So, based on last years demand, even in the special 6pp was not 100%, and 6pp in the regular was 0%. The question will be, will more folks in your pp group and one above sit out or put in this year compared to last year for 67? If less, then you could draw 67 in the regular with 6pp and almost assuredly will in the special, but if tags are cut and demand stays the same, or demand goes up, there is no chance at 67 with 6pp in the regular and chance is the special will probably be better than a coin flip.

 

[Bonecollector]

$0.02
A lot of folks may hold off this year due to weather making odds better, but worsening point creep.

 

[y02MDM]

In 2016, <7 pp was a 0% draw for 67 in the regular. To be 100% in the regular it took <8, and 7pp was only 68%. In the special it took <7 to be 100%, and 6pp was 78%. So, based on last years demand, even in the special 6pp was not 100%, and 6pp in the regular was 0%. The question will be, will more folks in your pp group and one above sit out or put in this year compared to last year for 67? If less, then you could draw 67 in the regular with 6pp and almost assuredly will in the special, but if tags are cut and demand stays the same, or demand goes up, there is no chance at 67 with 6pp in the regular and chance is the special will probably be better than a coin flip.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk