Realistic Odds for an Elk Tag

[hunt1up]

My first post although I've been a member for some time!

So I THINK I understand the AZ system enough to make some unit choices. A friend have our short list of elk hunts that we'd like to apply for. Late season hunts, moderate odds and success. Definitely marginal hunts.

I guess my ballpark question is whether 4 points on a group app is typically enough to pull some of these lesser elk hunts?

Thanks for any insight.

 

[hunt1up]

Nevermind, I think I found my answer. Just have to be smarter than the G&F website, which is hard for me!

 

[hunt1up]

Nevermind, I think I found my answer. Just have to be smarter than the G&F website, which is hard for me!

 

[OregonJim]

Good to see you posting on here.

If you haven't done it yet go over to the new members section and do a quick intro (although you aren't new).
As I recall you guys were drinking Keystone when I bumped into you in Medicine Bow.

That is instant credibility with a couple of pretty active members (Musket Man & Woodtick)!!!!!

 

[WapitiBob]

Take your best shot at a late hunt, then look for the new odds report to come out about a week after the app period closes. It'll have 2014 data and you'll be able to see right where you are in the line.

 

[ArmyArcher]

I second the chances on a late hunt. I'm getting geared up for my 2nd archery season hunt in unit 10 in Nov. In my research, unit 10 remains one of the top 3-4 elk hunts in the entire state to include late season.

First time I entered the draw, I was drawn for one of the 30 bull tags.

I've been off the forum and need to send some more thanks out to folks that helped with my Colorado hunt. It took two trips over 12 days of hunting, but put a small 4x4 on the ground on the second trip.

Will let you know how the hunt goes.

 

[hunt1up]

Looks like we're right on the bubble between the bonus pass and 1-2 pass for the unit we're considering. Considering that the percentage of NR applicants is less than 10% of the pool for that unit, I'd assume our odds are better than the overall odds for the unit. I'm thinking we're around 50-60% on our chances.

 

[hunt1up]

Good to see you posting on here.

If you haven't done it yet go over to the new members section and do a quick intro (although you aren't new).
As I recall you guys were drinking Keystone when I bumped into you in Medicine Bow.

That is instant credibility with a couple of pretty active members (Musket Man & Woodtick)!!!!!

And yes, I don't discriminate on beer but a cooler of Keystone or Coors will keep me pretty happy.

I'll check in on the new members page too.

 

[WapitiBob]

Looks like we're right on the bubble between the bonus pass and 1-2 pass for the unit we're considering. Considering that the percentage of NR applicants is less than 10% of the pool for that unit, I'd assume our odds are better than the overall odds for the unit. I'm thinking we're around 50-60% on our chances.

AZ does not distinguish between a resident or non resident until they try to fill the tag. Your odds are dependent on bonus points, applicant numbers, and only when they try to fill the tag, whether the NR cap has been filled.

 

[hunt1up]

AZ does not distinguish between a resident or non resident until they try to fill the tag. Your odds are dependent on bonus points, applicant numbers, and only when they try to fill the tag, whether the NR cap has been filled.

Gotcha. Thanks for the insight!