Unless you are 10 years old and plan to live to 150, you probably won't draw MT sheep. CO might be your best bet in a lesser unit. MT goat is the same as sheep I'd say. At least with WY goat you can get into the random draw and have the same odds as everybody else.
Unless you are 10 years old and plan to live to 150, you probably won't draw MT sheep. CO might be your best bet in a lesser unit. MT goat is the same as sheep I'd say. At least with WY goat you can get into the random draw and have the same odds as everybody else.
I agree, all you all stop putting in, then maybe I can draw some sheep tags in 2015! Seriously Matt, if you focus on states with a bonus point system and/or random draw, you at least have a chance. If it has a pure preference point system, say with very few NR tags and 10,000 people in front of you, ND is spot on. But there is always the chance rules will change, so you just have to decide. Say you decide to put in for sheep in 3 states, all with 1% odds, you'd have about a 50% shot of drawing in 16-17 years, and should draw in 33 ish years. Then again you could draw in year one or never draw. What is that cost? What would it cost to save a k a year and hunt Dall Sheep in 15 years, the skip a latte a day and save it plan? No hard and fast answers, but food for thought. MT uses bonus points for sheep, you front the tag/license cost, buy a point, but do not have to buy a seperate non-refundable license like NV/AZ/UT and others. No tag in MT, most of it comes back. CO is different, was a hybrid deal, but I did not play there and do not know. WY uses preference points for sheep, if there is no change, 150 years to draw may be low... Points in WY for sheep are $100 a year, were $7.50 I think just a very few years ago. Who knows what the future holds. But if you don't play and/or pay, you don't hunt.
The Game & Fish Depts. are making a ton of money off the nonresidents who will put in year after year because they want so much to hunt sheep. That's especially true in the states where you don't get your license cost back. You can get it back in NV but then you don't get a bonus point.
It's the nonresident tag cap that is such a killer. But, from their point of view, why should they raise the caps? Many states are getting in thousands of nonresident applications even with only a handful of nonresident tags. Anyway, the cap is usually set by the legislature to please their residents.
CO probably has the best draw system for new sheep or goat applicants. If you don't live in a sheep state, it is really tough. On the other hand, so is putting down $20k for a 7-10 day hunt in Alaska.
The Game & Fish Depts. are making a ton of money off the nonresidents who will put in year after year because they want so much to hunt sheep. That's especially true in the states where you don't get your license cost back. You can get it back in NV but then you don't get a bonus point.
It's the nonresident tag cap that is such a killer. But, from their point of view, why should they raise the caps? Many states are getting in thousands of nonresident applications even with only a handful of nonresident tags. Anyway, the cap is usually set by the legislature to please their residents.
CO probably has the best draw system for new sheep or goat applicants. If you don't live in a sheep state, it is really tough. On the other hand, so is putting down $20k for a 7-10 day hunt in Alaska.
Hit the nail on the head!!! If you didn't start 15 years ago just shoot for states that are straight up random, someone has to win the lottery why not you!!
ID anyone? Some of their odds are very interesting in a good way. Have to give up Deer, Elk and Antelope to play, but with no or few points, arguably best odds in the lower 48 I know of for a sheep, a moose, or a goat.
Don't trust to many of Idaho's draw odds, those that are to good to be true are for a reason. Wolves have decimated Moose in the Salmon Region and North through the Selway. Sheep populations in some areas are so minimal you could hunt the entire season and not see a single sheep and the country in Central Idaho will put almost any man on his knees, I've had the pleasure of being humbled by that country a couple times. I've been applying for years and still haven't been hit, I jump around units a bunch though and try to stay away from the crowd hunts that all the magazines recommend. Do some cross referencing with draw odds and harvest statistics that'll narrow down units to stay as far away from as possible unless you have a reliable source. Most the goat units that I've had the pleasure of going with some friends hunts were in that Central Idaho region, they are good hunts, plenty of animals and the access is reasonable to great depending on the unit.
Don't trust to many of Idaho's draw odds, those that are to good to be true are for a reason. Wolves have decimated Moose in the Salmon Region and North through the Selway. Sheep populations in some areas are so minimal you could hunt the entire season and not see a single sheep and the country in Central Idaho will put almost any man on his knees, I've had the pleasure of being humbled by that country a couple times. I've been applying for years and still haven't been hit, I jump around units a bunch though and try to stay away from the crowd hunts that all the magazines recommend. Do some cross referencing with draw odds and harvest statistics that'll narrow down units to stay as far away from as possible unless you have a reliable source.
As in all things, if it looks too good to be true, it is, good sage advice, WT. That said, there are gems there, 2x for Moose. If there is more consistently concentrated difficult country than the central/northern half of ID, I don't want to go there, most days anyway. As they say in the movies, may the odds be ever in your favor...they are in ID, as in the movies, it can cut both ways.
I've been putting in for pretty much every state for the last few years but I think I'm going to cut back this year. For me, I may limit the sheep applications to CO, NV, MT. CO because of the archery units, NV and MT because they have great hunting and use a bonus point system.
Unless you are 10 years old and plan to live to 150, you probably won't draw MT sheep. CO might be your best bet in a lesser unit. MT goat is the same as sheep I'd say. At least with WY goat you can get into the random draw and have the same odds as everybody else.
Not the case at all for Sheep in MT. They changed to bonus points some years ago and then started squaring them in 2011. While top point holders have a big advantage, everyone has a shot at a sheep tag. MT is a good state to apply for sheep in based on what I know.
If you are serious about wanting a sheep tag in your lifetime I wouldn't bother putting in for any draw in the lower 48. Setup a separate savings account at your bank and have $50, $75, $100 or whatever you can afford deposited into that account from your paycheck. You will eventually have enough money to hunt sheep in Canada. This is as close to a guarantee to get a tag that I'm aware of. I would never play the points game with sheep starting out now.
As far as moose goes, just hunt Eastern Canada. Tons cheaper and they have bigger moose compared to shiras. It just doesn't make sense to me why a nonresident would apply for moose in the west.
So now the fun begins. Just keep in mind that your age, as ND I think referred, to can make a big difference. Lots of the folks ahead of you will stop or health will force them to stop, so what looks like impossible in a preference point state like WY, may look much different in 10-15 years., if you are relatively young. If no rule changes are made in WY for example, the drop out rate could make all the difference. That said, I think change is likely to begin to happen in PP states, as a pure PP system is seniority based and at some point when demand far exceeds supply, is not likely to recruit enough young/new hunters into the draw. Read that as revenue drops for the state. Montana recognized this and moved from PP, to Bonus points, then to squared BP's over the last 15 years or so. Just one more joker in the deck.
But when you factor in the costs, the savings plan mentioned earlier begins to look like the way to go, so long as Dall sheep supply remains high, should supply drop or demand suddenly spike, well look at what Desert BH command. No sure deal. Were I young enough to start to play in the point game, I'd likely do that in 2-4 states and try to save for a Dall hunt. I am getting out of points, cashing them in on hunts so to speak. Then focusing resources on a few areas I can hunt more often with family and friends.
For Moose, the savings plan for a Canadian hunt makes the most sense to me. "Affordable" moose hunts all over in Canada. Had we not gotten in WY points early and been able to draw two Moose tags the last few years, I be saving for one, choosing not to hunt Moose, or finding a ID Moose I could do. If the WY 10% NR cap holds up, doubly so. It is not all gloom and doom, but it is very much buyer beware. Thousands of people are putting in for tags they can't draw unless rules change, most have no idea, and the states love them for that. You are smart to study up.
You are young, plenty of time to feed the points monster. If you are in top shape, like to backpack, not worried about Grizz, MT unlimited units might be an option, as would some of the more rugged ID units. No exp. with MT units, but those who do usually suggest a multi-year hunt plan to harvest. May be the most cost effective strategy of all.
I know nothing about Goats, or the goat draw. I'd guess it is the same, a quick google search would tell you. I think most states give out fewer goat than sheep tags. Might make the BC guided path the best to a goat, but I don't know enough about the goat game to help.
If I were you, I would apply for sheep and goat in CO. Those are definitely possible to draw in your lifetime. If you're an archer, CO has archery only sheep tags that have very good odds. The only bad thing is that you have to front the tag fees which would be $4,000 for those 2 species and your name does not go in the hat until your 4th year of applying.
I'd also recommend WY goat. Random draw of 1-2%. I believe you also have to front the tag fee on that one. WY sheep is a tough one. I'm sure they'll be cutting the NR quota and you unless you pull a tag in the random draw, it might take 30-50 points for you to draw a tag.
Idaho is also not bad but like others have said, the draw odds aren't as good as they look due to the non resident 10% cap. Plus you'll buy the $150 hunting license. If you'll go OTC elk hunting or something like that, then it isn't a big deal but otherwise you'll have to make that $150 donation to get your name in the hat.
As for MT, I highly recommend you save your money (unless money isn't a big deal). Looking at the draw odds from 2013 for sheep, there were 7,027 non resident applicants and 9 tags were drawn. That equates to 780 applicants per tag. Your true draw odds are almost impossible to calculate due to the 10% non resident cap and with how MT allocates a certain number of tags per region, not necessarily by unit. With that said, I'd say even a person that has 5 points probably has something like 1 in a couple thousand odds of drawing, maybe worse. That's totally my opinion but when you figure that the guys with 12 points will have that number squared plus one, their name will be in the hat 145 times. I wish I could look at the detailed draw stats from MT but my computer won't upload the file, otherwise I could give you a little better insight on that. Plus with MT, you pay a $50 non refundable fee and also a $20 bonus point fee. Thus, for $70, I don't believe for a second that it is worth it to start building points in MT. I'd rather buy raffle tickets on a tag. I'm 30 with 3 points and don't plan on continuing to buy them. In fact I am thinking about just getting a ewe tag and being done with it. Haven't decided if I'll go that route or not but we'll see.
ND, I some 2014 data. 680 Got 8,322 apps. 4,122 were NR apps for two tags. One drawn with 8 points. One with 13, which was the max points for for 2014. That is the "best" unit and draws a whole bunch of apps. Just over 1,600 NR had 8+ points, right at 800/1. Unit 482, called second best by most, had 4,339 apps, 1,334 were NR, one drew with 4 points. Those numbers suck.
Now let's say we want to hunt any BH, in MT., not just go after the so called biggest in the best unit. Things change, not pretty, but still possible. Unit 421 1 NR of 228 drew with 4 points, Unit 102 1 NR of 129 drew. So in my view you can manage the numbers, to a degree, by knowing what the popular area is and avoiding it. If you put in for MT, and say 3-4 other states with the all too common .5% - 1% ish odds, suddenly you are looking at somewhere around a 50% shot within something like 20 - 25 years, depending on actual odds and number of states applied for. Anyway that illustrates the concept. The bonus point draw and low tag
cost make MT attractive to most.
I used the same strategy to draw a WY sheep tag, before I should have in a top unit, by being willing to go after unpopular units. Simply an idea to consider. Then cost that vs. saving to buy a hunt, bow hunts, unlimited units, and you will find something that
makes sense to you. If you follow the crowd, it tends to be crowded...
As they say in the movie, may the odds be ever in your favor!
