What impact will the license and PP increases have on creep? I when researching draws I generally assume 1 point creep per year. Think it?ll stay similar or will it bump even more this year?
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- Thread starter siwulat
- Start date
I hear ya, just more asking people’s thoughts. I personally don’t think a 20% increase will have much impact overall. Certain units, sure. But as a whole I think it’ll be status quo for now.
Hilltop
Veteran member
I would be surprised if there was much change in point creep for most hunts. I could see points going down for cow moose maybe as some I have talked to, myself included, feel 2k is a little steep for a cow moose. $100 increase on the non-resident elk tag won't deter anyone imo.
Hilltop
Veteran member
I will add that there is a chance cow moose tags become more difficult to draw for a bit if people decide to cash in points due to the increase... as 480 said, it's hard to predict.
PlainsHunter
Active Member
My first thought is...not much impact at all.
The reality is that many people buy the point only and essentially bank them for the "perfect" year. This in turn raises the point totals every year on premium units and well you all know how that works.
The reality is that many people buy the point only and essentially bank them for the "perfect" year. This in turn raises the point totals every year on premium units and well you all know how that works.
Fink
Veteran member
I think you might see slightly better odds in the special draw, and slightly worse odds in the regular draw.. And I do mean slightly, like a couple apps either way.. Also wouldnt be surprised to see a few guys bail on on a higher point unit, and draw a tag in a lower point unit, in the regular draw.. Who knows, guess we'll find out in about a month and a half.
This is my thought as well. It’ll be interesting for sure. I’m even more curious what the break point is. How high can it go without seeing drastic changes in the draws? Not looking to get into that topic now, more just rhetorical postulation...
Been burning points in a state or two for several years, just as you describe. Hard to predict what will happen in WY as a whole.
I think it will be variable. I’ve only been following for a few years but some years some units don’t creep much, then jump, then flat, then back to slow creep ~1 point. This is primarily for deer/antelope. It seems that, and logic would dictate, that lower quota units are are more subject to the variability. A unit with 100 tags can absorb several guys dropping more points than “normal” or the previous year without changing the minimum points for 100% draw a lot easier than a unit with 10 tags. They are just less stable and more prone to swings and creep.
With the price increases I agree there will be folks “cashing out” and we may see some funny stuff for the next couple of years. I always find the point “spreads” interesting to look at in the demand tables for WY. This essentially is how many rows does a single hunt take up on the sheet. Looking at units by “minimum points for 100% draw” and following hat year to year only tells part of the story. I like to look at mean points spent per tag in a unit as well. It is interesting how this changes year to year while the min points for 100% doesn’t.
Say a unit has 10 tags. One year four guys with 4 points, two with 3 points and ten with two points put in. Draw odds with 2 points is 40%. So points for 100% were 3 PP, but in total 30 PP were spent on that hunt. Say the same unit in a different year (still 10 tags) has two guys with 7 points, none with 6 points, two with 5 points, two with 4 points, and six with 3 PP. It was 4 PP for 100%, now 3 PP is 67%, but 42 PP were spent on those 10 tags. The “creep” was only one PP but the unit saw a 40% increase in points spent.
The question always is “how many PP is a hunt WORTH” which is not answerable. Trying to figure out where to spend your points or how “good” a unit is by looking at anything on the demand sheet is flawed. So many things impact who spends how many points where in a year. I try to look at point usage trends by the number of points spent to see if units are gaining or losing popularity to try and avoid surprises when we are “supposed” to draw based on min PP for 100%.
I’m interested to see what the points spent do in 2018 and 2019 for a few places I’ve been watching.
With the price increases I agree there will be folks “cashing out” and we may see some funny stuff for the next couple of years. I always find the point “spreads” interesting to look at in the demand tables for WY. This essentially is how many rows does a single hunt take up on the sheet. Looking at units by “minimum points for 100% draw” and following hat year to year only tells part of the story. I like to look at mean points spent per tag in a unit as well. It is interesting how this changes year to year while the min points for 100% doesn’t.
Say a unit has 10 tags. One year four guys with 4 points, two with 3 points and ten with two points put in. Draw odds with 2 points is 40%. So points for 100% were 3 PP, but in total 30 PP were spent on that hunt. Say the same unit in a different year (still 10 tags) has two guys with 7 points, none with 6 points, two with 5 points, two with 4 points, and six with 3 PP. It was 4 PP for 100%, now 3 PP is 67%, but 42 PP were spent on those 10 tags. The “creep” was only one PP but the unit saw a 40% increase in points spent.
The question always is “how many PP is a hunt WORTH” which is not answerable. Trying to figure out where to spend your points or how “good” a unit is by looking at anything on the demand sheet is flawed. So many things impact who spends how many points where in a year. I try to look at point usage trends by the number of points spent to see if units are gaining or losing popularity to try and avoid surprises when we are “supposed” to draw based on min PP for 100%.
I’m interested to see what the points spent do in 2018 and 2019 for a few places I’ve been watching.