Odds

[Alabama]

How do you figure out your true odds of drawing a hunt? Let's say I apply for unit A at 3% odds as 1st choice, unit B at 7% odds as 2nd choice and unit C at 15% odds as 3rd choice; what are my true odds to draw a tag? I've read they are only as good as my easiest unit (15%) and I've read they are cumulative.

Thoughts?

 

[WapitiBob]

Can't calculate true odds but the closest you can get is to divide 1st choice success by 1st choice applicants. Toprut has a good and accurate write up on nm as well as odds, free on their site. Understand the odds shown are for last years draw. Toprut used the actual applicant database, with hunt choices to create their own draw program and derive their odds. I believe goHUNT has done the same thing.

The way the NM draw works, it really does come down to your random number. More so than any other draw.

 

[hoshour]

I know everyone wants to know their odds, but with NM's four variables - the random draw order, 3 drawable choices per application before the next application is considered, anywhere from 1-4 people on an application and the 6% nonresident allocation cap, actual odds just can't be predicted. We do publish odds, but with a footnote disclaimer that odds are best used to compare units.

Here's an example. Let's say 6% of the tags for a hunt comes out to 6 nonresident tags. Let's say you are the only nonresident in the entire draw that listed that hunt as their 1st choice. You could still strike out if before your application came up, two nonresident applications with 3 people each had their 1st choice full but had that hunt as their 2nd choice. So, 6 nonresident tags available for that hunt, one 1st choice application, 1st choice success = 0%.

That's why total choices for a hunt should be considered in calculating odds rather than just 1st choices. First choices only would be appropriate if only the first choice was considered before the next application but in NM it will overstate the odds.

 

[swampokie]

just try and duplicate your odds last time u drew the gila

 

[Alabama]

just try and duplicate your odds last time u drew the gila

Haha! I definitely beat the odds on that one! I've diligently applied for elk and Barbary sheep every year and added antelope and oryx last year, but can't duplicate my luck. I drew a roughly 6% odds elk tag but I can't draw a Barbary sheep tag for nothing. Those Barbary sheep odds just keep getting worse every year.

The year I drew my elk tag the success rates were abysmal (10.4%) so I don't feel so bad about not getting one. That unit is very tough to glass.

 

[Flyforfun]

There is no way to calculate YOUR odds because you have no idea what others put as their choices that get drawn ahead of you. Another mans trash is another mans treasure. I think based on the 6% I have 14 total tags for the units I put in for. If no one else puts them as their 3 choices my units could slide down to me getting one. Or I just need to be drawn in the top 14 spots to be guaranteed a tag. Even then you still have no idea what tag you will get. If the top 13 had the same units I picked I'll get the last one. There is no way to ever know your odds because of the 100% random draw. I just wish NM would let you know what number you were randomly assigned before drawing. Kind of exciting actually.

 

[swampokie]

You are right that there is no way to get exact odds but you can get good representation of odds by percentages that are given on toprut new mexico. The only thing I know for sure is that it is more difficult to draw a southern nm elk tag than a northern unit! Except for the vidal. Hopefully I finally get to hunt southern nm this year.

There is no way to calculate YOUR odds because you have no idea what others put as their choices that get drawn ahead of you. Another mans trash is another mans treasure. I think based on the 6% I have 14 total tags for the units I put in for. If no one else puts them as their 3 choices my units could slide down to me getting one. Or I just need to be drawn in the top 14 spots to be guaranteed a tag. Even then you still have no idea what tag you will get. If the top 13 had the same units I picked I'll get the last one. There is no way to ever know your odds because of the 100% random draw. I just wish NM would let you know what number you were randomly assigned before drawing. Kind of exciting actually.

 

[Flyforfun]

You are right that there is no way to get exact odds but you can get good representation of odds by percentages that are given on toprut new mexico. The only thing I know for sure is that it is more difficult to draw a southern nm elk tag than a northern unit! Except for the vidal. Hopefully I finally get to hunt southern nm this year.

The only thing I've found so far is how many people have put a specific unit as any of their choices. Last year I think 400 people put in for 1 of the 6 available tags that I applied for this year. The hard part is, are those 400 at the top, middle or bottom of the list? And that's not published. It's kind of exciting knowing you have at least some chance of drawing some of the best hunting in the world every year.

 

[swampokie]

The only thing that's for certain is if you put in by yourself you have a better chance to draw especially in units that only offer a couple tags. A fact that toprut has unveiled to the world!

The only thing I've found so far is how many people have put a specific unit as any of their choices. Last year I think 400 people put in for 1 of the 6 available tags that I applied for this year. The hard part is, are those 400 at the top, middle or bottom of the list? And that's not published. It's kind of exciting knowing you have at least some chance of drawing some of the best hunting in the world every year.