How are preference points weighted?

[the wanderer]

My group of 5 is planning on applying for general elk in the regular drawing In 2021. We will have an average of 3.6 points. I see the draw odds were 100% with 3 points this year. Assuming point creep will continue as it slowly has in the general regular draw it will take <4 to have 100% draw odds in 2021. I am now worried. My question is: does a party with an average of 3.8 (0.2 higher than our average) have a better chance of drawing than we do? I have searched on this forum and on the Wyoming game and fish site and cannot find the answer to this question.
The group will have the following individual points:
Hunter #1-2
Hunter #2- 3
Hunter #3- 3
Hunter #4- 4
Hunter #5- 6

I am the hunter #5 with 6 points. I’m thinking of suggesting we split into two groups. One apply in the regular draw, and the others with a lesser point average apply in the special.
Can anyone answer this question for me?

thank you

 

[Big Chief J]

They average your preference points out to four decimal places. Your group would have 3.6000 points so a group of anything greater than that would draw before your group.

 

[Hilltop]

Point creep does happen with the general tags but if you look back over the last 5-10 years you will see it is typically more gradual. I think you will likely draw in the regular with 3.6. If you are really concerned, you could just make hunter #1 & #2 apply special. Everyone one would be able to draw unless there is a huge influx of applicants (unlikely if you look at PP numbers out there). I also think we may see 2021 draw odds remain fairly static as the economy isn't projected to be great. So many have lost jobs or taken hits that I have to believe some will be forced to skip a year. You have some time...

 

[RICMIC]

I agree with Hilltop. The point creep for GEN elk has been very gradual, and I don't think that you will have any problem drawing as a group. BUT, S*#! happens, so the split option may be worth considering.

 

[the wanderer]

I agree with Hilltop. The point creep for GEN elk has been very gradual, and I don't think that you will have any problem drawing as a group. BUT, S*#! happens, so the split option may be worth considering.

Thank you all for your responses. This answers my question. Now we just need to decide as a group what to do.

thanks again