Colorada NR Bighorn Point Holder Growth

[arwaterfowler]

This thread is piggybacking off of a previous thread posted about Colorado Moose Point Creep. I pulled the same data for Bighorn point holders by year from Colorado's website. After some confusion, and much needed guidance by Umpqua Hunter, I have posted the summary below.

The year column represents how many years in the system are needed to hold the corresponding points. The table also shows point holders with <3 points (ineligible for draw) and 3 pts or more (eligible to draw).



I find a few things interesting. The average growth of point holders grew at a rate of over 5% from 2003 to 2013. Only 2009 and 2010 posted a less point holders than the previous year. I'm not sure why, but the expertise in this forum may be able to help. There where 291 people apply for their first time in 2003. If you applied every year since, that group would have 7 weighted points. There are currently only 142 holders with 7 weighted points or about half of the original group.

Also interesting to note - total point holders with less than 3 pts has declined since 2008 and those with 3 pts and above have grown every year. Hope you guys find this interesting.

I'll post the same data for Mountain Goat if anybody is interested....

 

[Alabama]

Could you post it up for mountain goat. Thanks, Bama

 

[J Deck]

I think they were less applicants in 2009 and 2010 due to the economy. The entire NR tag fee has to come out of a checking account and money go tight for a lot of folks.

 

[HuskyMusky]

Guess I'll just have to hunt'em in MT


What do you guys think of CO's 3 pt system?

I wonder if squaring the points is a better option? ie where a guy could tech draw in year 1...

You know they could even cube^3 points which would still give everyone an option but just really give preference to the most point holders.

 

[PointsHunter]

Thanks for posting the data. There is increase at the lower end of points which drives the overall increase - but surprised at the attrition in the higher points holders. Example max points holders have decreased by ~66% in the last ten years. The top 3 points levels combined decreased by almost a third over the past 5 years. There are certainly not enough tags to drive that attrition...

 

[Colorado Cowboy]

Thanks for posting the data. There is increase at the lower end of points which drives the overall increase - but surprised at the attrition in the higher points holders. Example max points holders have decreased by ~66% in the last ten years. The top 3 points levels combined decreased by almost a third over the past 5 years. There are certainly not enough tags to drive that attrition...

You don't suppose some of them are just getting too damn old ......like me!!! LOL

 

[Horniac]

Since your application number is divided by the number of weighted points you have plus one to give you a lower application number you should have better odds than the applicant just becoming eligible for the draw. However, even if you have the most weighted points of any applicants there is no guarantee that you will EVER draw a tag because you still must get lucky and be given a low draw number by the computer to begin with. As a NR, It seems to me every year my odds are getting worse even with another weighted preference point because more applicants are eligible to enter the drawing pool than leaving the drawing pool by drawing a tag. I think more and more upper end point holders are starting to become better educated about the various states draw systems and the true odds of actually drawing a tag and weighing those odds against the upfront money, continually increasing nonrefundable application and license fees, decreasing NR quotas, changes to the draw rules after getting into the system, and then just pulling the plug after frustratingly applying year after year to no avail...

Horniac