Arizona Draw odds?

[NDHunter]

So Im still looking at 0% chance?

Yea I'd say so. If not, they're probably about 1 in 1,000 at best.

And I'm not seeing the 30% draw odds that you mentioned. 27 is much lower than that.

If you want to hunt any of the mid-tier AZ units, you are looking at a solid 5 year draw. Upper tier 10-15. Glory units- once if your life if you're lucky.

 

[WapitiBob]

So Im still looking at 0% chance?

You will not draw 27 until you are in the max pool(s).

 

[WapitiBob]

Are the odds posted in the MRS overall resident and non resident combined (total tags vs total applicants, with no regard to points) drawing odds?

I will use the elk 3B ML hunt for an example since it has the best draw odds of any elk hunt in the MRS. 200 tags, and 31% drawing odds. realistically as a NR with no points if I were to apply for this hunt what chance would I have of drawing or how many points would I need to have a reasonable chance at drawing?

Hunt 3104, 3B muzzy, 200 total tags; 40 tags allotted in the Bonus Pass, 20 tags total for NR.

(with zero points you will NOT be in the Bonus draw, 1-2 Pass only)

Bonus pass draw:
39 residents drew from 508 1st/2nd choice apps
1 non resident drew from 23 1st/2nd choice apps

That leaves for the 1-2 pass:
369 residents, and 22 non residents vying for 160 tags, 19 of which can go to a NR.

160/391 = 41% overall odds, without regard to residency OR bonus point advantage.

 

[dustin ray]

WapitiBob thanks for the good info can you look in your crystal ball and tell me what you think this year i have three points and when't for unit 9 antlerless first season non res

 

[WapitiBob]

Antlerless and "any" sex hunts don't have a NR cap. Your in the pile with the residents and the odds will be those shown in the draw reports.