Antelope draw 2017 PP Special vs. RegularP

[Daybreak]

I thought I understood the advantage of Special PP vs. Regular PP draw odds....Eastman's says Special worth 1-2 point advantage; well, not always I guess. We always applied using Special assuming that was gospel, and it seemed to hold in previous years. This real example shows Regular had better odds than Special! Look at 63-2 for example, Regular PP draw had 78% success with 2 pts; however the same with Special PP and 2 pts. had 0% draw.

What gives? Was this common this year, and somehow connected with the massive "point leap" (I use that instead of "point creep" because in the antelope units our group was applying in, "leap" better describes it.

Thanks much for your insight.

 

[Work2hunt]

Supply and demand. As you stated, typically the special PP draw will get you the same tag for more $ with less PP but not always. The 2 are only connected by ultimately giving you the same tag to hunt. But if you apply for one you are in a different draw pool then the other. So in theory, or as you stated for 63-2, if more people apply for special the number of PPs required could be more.

It sucks but I don't see any way to predict this scenario.

 

[LCH]

Most of the time odds are slightly better with the special. However, there are fewer tags in the special draw to begin with, and when you combine that with more folks opting for the special draw to increase their odds, you get a few outliers (such as your example).

I will be interested to see how next year's price increases will affect draw odds, both overall and in the regular vs. special draw.

 

[hoshour]

Good example of how things are not always predictable when it comes to the draw, I don't care which system you're talking about.

Point creep, sitting out, rushing back in, people flooding into one unit because someone took a well-publicized buck or we or someone else changed the rating, unusual winter kill, changes in the number of tags - there are all kinds of reasons why you can't assume that the points needed for a particular hunt last year will be the same this year or that in Wyoming the special draw will give you an advantage on every hunt in every year.

For several years you could draw WY antelope 83 with 1 point. The year after Guy upgraded it to blue chip I put in with 3 points and didn't draw because it jumped to 4. You just never know. That's why you have to apply several places and keep building points.

 

[Daybreak]

So, LCH and others, is the tag split between Special and Regular determined before the draw itself by edict or what? I always assumed if someone was willing to pay more for the Special, then the powers at be would always sell them that tag and gladly take the extra $$ as a result...in other words take all the Special the public was willing to offer, up to the total of the non-resident PP tags available in that unit.

I guess obviously that is not really the case in my example, but I don't understand the logic.....why offer a higher priced tag (which I would say few will opt for after the 2018 price rise), if not to accept all of them the hunters are willing to pay & apply for?

 

[Colorado Cowboy]

When the Special Draw was instituted years ago, I started watching the stats every year for a few units in deer, elk & antelope. It didn't take long for me to see that just because you paid extra for a Special Tag, you would draw it. You still need to do your homework, look at the previous years stats and decide if you need to spend the extra money. I usually draw what I want and have never applied for a Special.

 

[LCH]

So, LCH and others, is the tag split between Special and Regular determined before the draw itself by edict or what? I always assumed if someone was willing to pay more for the Special, then the powers at be would always sell them that tag and gladly take the extra $$ as a result...in other words take all the Special the public was willing to offer, up to the total of the non-resident PP tags available in that unit.

I guess obviously that is not really the case in my example, but I don't understand the logic.....why offer a higher priced tag (which I would say few will opt for after the 2018 price rise), if not to accept all of them the hunters are willing to pay & apply for?

NR tags are split 60/40, 60% regular and 40% special. I've been through the Wyoming draw several times, but still far from an expert (there are a few on this site though.. WapitiBob comes to mind). I believe that undrawn special priced tags can be moved into the regular draw, but I do know that they will not pull regular-priced tags into the special draw.

 

[Daybreak]

Interesting info. CO Cowboy, We did not actually apply in the example I used, except as 2nd choice....but we considered it, and should have with this hindsight. We did look at all previous years, units, odds, etc., but I guess in units we have interest in, I just never saw the Special/Regular reverse like it did. Now that I know it, might change our future plans.

Actually, we ended up applying for our group of 4 for leftover doe tags, and should know in 1 hour if we are going to Wyoming or not.

LCH, do you know if the 60/40 split is for both the random draw and the PP draw? Thanks to all for the info.

 

[Daybreak]

Just thinking, I guess it is proper that they not pull Regular tags in to the Special like I thought, because then it would just be a 100% money game....whoever pays the most gets a tag, and the others get nothing. That certainly is not fair, and there is too much tendency for the big dollars getting the tags in many states anyway.

 

[LCH]

LCH, do you know if the 60/40 split is for both the random draw and the PP draw? Thanks to all for the info.

Yes. Of the 60% in the regular draw, 25% of those go to the random. Of the 40% in the special draw, 25% go to random.

 

[Daybreak]

OK, thanks for the info.
Well, we did not draw leftover doe tags either, so I guess we will stay home in Iowa this year and make plans for 2018 antelope...back to the drawing board.

 

[Horsenhike]

My wife's unit for this year had two random special tags put back into the random draw last year. This year there were 23 applications for those two tags.

The only sure way to hunt is to have multiple strategies with a guaranteed archery tag as a last resort. There is just no way to know what will happen for sure.

 

[Fish]

I like the special draw category. I had a friend put in for his first antelope tag going special.draw He drew it even though Eastman's put it on their 5 top areas, he got real lucky. Now I have to guide him and blow off some vacation time but it should be fun. I drew antelope with the special last season. We both would have not drawn it in the reg. PP draw.

I look at it this way. If I go out to dinner in the Seattle area with my girlfriend 2 times, I've spent close to $200, the cost of the special tag. It may be less if she doesn't order a high priced cocktail or 2 but that isn't going to happen. I just hope I can afford it when I retire next year. Like my boss said, it the cost of doing business.