Lets say I buy moose or sheep points for 15 years and then draw a tag. Does the money for the points go toward the tag, do you loose it, or are you refunded the cash? How does it work? Is elk the same way?
A NEWBE QUESTION , Buying points
- Thread starter razorbackhunter
- Start date
NDHunter
Veteran member
I WISH that's how it worked! No your money is gone once you buy those points.
BobcatJerry
Member
ND Hunter is right, you just bought the points, not the tag. It's a lot of money to plunk down if you never draw. What else can you do if you want to hunt. Landowner tags would probably be cheaper if you plan to go just ever 4-5 years. I enjoy putting in and doing the research...and dreaming.
arwaterfowler
Active Member
You must consider that it will take a minimum of 15 years to draw (I assume you are talking about Wyoming). At $100/ point * 15points = $1500 in points. That also doesn't consider the affects of point creep or raises in the cost of points. When adding in the cost of a NR tag and guide, it gets expensive. I'm doing it, but I've spent $500 already and will have to wait probably 12+ years for the dream. But hey, a mans gotta have something to lot forward to, right? That's what I tell myself anyways.
Umpqua Hunter
Veteran member
I just thought I'd throw this out there since it might be helpful.
One of the best courses I took in engineering was called Industrial Economics. In it they discussed the present and future value of money. You learned stuff like how interest works, financing on a purchase, and earning interest on your money.
When we discuss how much a tag is gonna cost 20 years in the future, the simple thing is to just add up how much it costs to apply each year, and the cost of the tag, which is not always an accurate way to look at the real cost in today's dollars. Say it costs me $100 a year to buy a point for 20 years ($2000 total), and then $2000 for the tag. Is the cost in today's money really $4000?
Say I invest $4000 today at 2.5%, I will earn $100 in interest a year. I can use that $100 to buy my point and I still have.....$4000. I can do that again the next year and still have....$4000. When I finally draw I spend $2000 on a tag and I am out of pocket $2000 from today's $4000 investment.
Of course this is a pretty simple example, and does not account for higher interest rates, taxes, the inflation of tag fees, etc. But it does show that the guy who wants to hunt Shiras moose, it is still considerably cheaper than buying a guaranteed Shiras hunt for $10,000+ today. The assumption is that someone actually saves money and invests.
There is the issue of point creep and it is VERY real. Someday several western states are gonna have to address their draw systems, when the best tags are taking 25-30+ years to draw. I am convinced there is no guarantee that points we buy today will still be in effect in 20+ years.
One of the best courses I took in engineering was called Industrial Economics. In it they discussed the present and future value of money. You learned stuff like how interest works, financing on a purchase, and earning interest on your money.
When we discuss how much a tag is gonna cost 20 years in the future, the simple thing is to just add up how much it costs to apply each year, and the cost of the tag, which is not always an accurate way to look at the real cost in today's dollars. Say it costs me $100 a year to buy a point for 20 years ($2000 total), and then $2000 for the tag. Is the cost in today's money really $4000?
Say I invest $4000 today at 2.5%, I will earn $100 in interest a year. I can use that $100 to buy my point and I still have.....$4000. I can do that again the next year and still have....$4000. When I finally draw I spend $2000 on a tag and I am out of pocket $2000 from today's $4000 investment.
Of course this is a pretty simple example, and does not account for higher interest rates, taxes, the inflation of tag fees, etc. But it does show that the guy who wants to hunt Shiras moose, it is still considerably cheaper than buying a guaranteed Shiras hunt for $10,000+ today. The assumption is that someone actually saves money and invests.
There is the issue of point creep and it is VERY real. Someday several western states are gonna have to address their draw systems, when the best tags are taking 25-30+ years to draw. I am convinced there is no guarantee that points we buy today will still be in effect in 20+ years.
Umpqua Hunter
Veteran member
Here is something that should give you a feel of the point creep problem. Wyoming issues by FAR the most non-resident sheep tags of the western states. Guys with max points now have 18 points. Here is the point standing for non-residents with 10 or more points for sheep:
10 points: 501
11 points: 502
12 points: 466
13 points: 454 (LARGE JUMP IN APPLICANTS)
14 points: 151
15 points: 133
16 points: 98
17 points: 85
18 points: 22
So keep this in mind...guys who have max points have been at it 18 years have STILL not drawn out. Not one single point level has completely drawn out in 18 years! You are probably looking at 25 points before those with the top three point levels draw out.
Then there is another issue. Notice the large jump in the number of applicants with 14 and 15 points? There is a "WALL" there that is going to take likely 10 years just to draw through those with 13 points (currently) to 12 points (currently). That same "WALL" exists in the Wyoming moose preference points. What happened was 13 years ago the cost to buy a point went from $7 to $100 per year. A lot of guys who had been buying points for $7 got sticker shock and bailed out and wouldn't pay the $100. It seems that the guys who were just starting out and paying $100 knew what they were getting into and have stuck with it.
There are about 50 sheep tags being drawn with points by non-residents each year. There are 2412 applicants with 10 or more points. It will only take 48 years for those with 10 or more points to draw out if they all stick with it. Of course that is longer than most guys hunting lifetime so there will be attrition. If the point system remains in place, most sheep and moose tags that are drawn on points will be drawn by guys who are 65+ years old who have been applying for a lifetime.
10 points: 501
11 points: 502
12 points: 466
13 points: 454 (LARGE JUMP IN APPLICANTS)
14 points: 151
15 points: 133
16 points: 98
17 points: 85
18 points: 22
So keep this in mind...guys who have max points have been at it 18 years have STILL not drawn out. Not one single point level has completely drawn out in 18 years! You are probably looking at 25 points before those with the top three point levels draw out.
Then there is another issue. Notice the large jump in the number of applicants with 14 and 15 points? There is a "WALL" there that is going to take likely 10 years just to draw through those with 13 points (currently) to 12 points (currently). That same "WALL" exists in the Wyoming moose preference points. What happened was 13 years ago the cost to buy a point went from $7 to $100 per year. A lot of guys who had been buying points for $7 got sticker shock and bailed out and wouldn't pay the $100. It seems that the guys who were just starting out and paying $100 knew what they were getting into and have stuck with it.
There are about 50 sheep tags being drawn with points by non-residents each year. There are 2412 applicants with 10 or more points. It will only take 48 years for those with 10 or more points to draw out if they all stick with it. Of course that is longer than most guys hunting lifetime so there will be attrition. If the point system remains in place, most sheep and moose tags that are drawn on points will be drawn by guys who are 65+ years old who have been applying for a lifetime.
U-H,
I largely agree with what you say.It will take many years to clear out the people with a large number of tags, and the states will likely change the game as the years go by.
One correction on the large jump in people from 13 to 14 points. Back in the old days (14 years ago +), you had to submit the entire tag fee at the time of application in order to get a preference point. The point fee was minimal, but sending a check for roughly $1K+ kept many people from applying. The system was changed to just allow you to apply for the point only, and send in your $7 dollar point fee. A huge increase in applicants occurred the following year. A few years after that, when the state had thousands of people invested in the point system, they then raised the price to $100 per point (for sheep). Many did drop out, but the majority thought they had enough points they had to stay in the game and continue paying the high point fee. In effect they were being held hostage by their accumulated points and had to keep paying to stay in the upper points group.
It won't take more than 5-10 years to draw all the applicants with more than 13 points (currently) assuming they all don't apply for the same unit. WY does give out quite a few NR sheep tags each year. But some stubborn people will hold out for what they perceive as the very best unit, and will likely still be waiting for a tag many more years. Getting through the large number of point holders in the 13 point group will take a very long time, however. And now WY is talking about raising the tag fees considerably, and once again taking advantage of those who are hostage to their high points. The tag looks like it will go up to at least $2500, and eventually they will raise the point fee higher also.
llp
I largely agree with what you say.It will take many years to clear out the people with a large number of tags, and the states will likely change the game as the years go by.
One correction on the large jump in people from 13 to 14 points. Back in the old days (14 years ago +), you had to submit the entire tag fee at the time of application in order to get a preference point. The point fee was minimal, but sending a check for roughly $1K+ kept many people from applying. The system was changed to just allow you to apply for the point only, and send in your $7 dollar point fee. A huge increase in applicants occurred the following year. A few years after that, when the state had thousands of people invested in the point system, they then raised the price to $100 per point (for sheep). Many did drop out, but the majority thought they had enough points they had to stay in the game and continue paying the high point fee. In effect they were being held hostage by their accumulated points and had to keep paying to stay in the upper points group.
It won't take more than 5-10 years to draw all the applicants with more than 13 points (currently) assuming they all don't apply for the same unit. WY does give out quite a few NR sheep tags each year. But some stubborn people will hold out for what they perceive as the very best unit, and will likely still be waiting for a tag many more years. Getting through the large number of point holders in the 13 point group will take a very long time, however. And now WY is talking about raising the tag fees considerably, and once again taking advantage of those who are hostage to their high points. The tag looks like it will go up to at least $2500, and eventually they will raise the point fee higher also.
llp
NDHunter
Veteran member
I think the main thing to determine whether or not it is worth it to apply is how old you are. If you are under 30, I can't imagine that there are thousands of people that young applying. Sure there are some, but I doubt enough that you wouldn't be able to draw before you are 60. That's my thought.
BKC
Very Active Member
I am a Colorado resident and drew and killed my Ram in 2001, I am extremely lucky. My son is trying to Draw a tag and he is 25 and has a good chance, but probably not for about 10 years, unless he wants to hunt a lesser unit or a ewe. I hope he does not get screwed by the state when they change their draw system. I agree Edleweiss, you are not guaranteed a tag by any state but believe me, all states have done the math just like Umpqua has done and they know that a lot of people are going to give up or die! And all their money will be lost for good. This is a pryamid scheme, the same thing that Bernie Madoff went to the clink for. I am going to burn my elk points, maybe next year, and then they will be followed by deer, antelope, bear, and maybe someday I will hit the lotto and draw my moose tag. Then I will be done with this point chasing game and just fill my freezer with cows and does.