How To Increase Draw Odds

[Elkoholic307]

Some people claim that by passing SF 114 and having a preference point system, it will in turn give residents better odds of drawing. Personally, I disagree but did not make this thread to debate that bill. Instead, I have a question.

How can we improve draw odds with the current random system? Two ideas come to mind.

-Adopt New Mexico's rule of filling out harvest surveys. If you have not done so by the next application time, you will not be eligible for the draw. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe that's the way it works. This is controversial for me because I'm not big on being forced or required to do something. But, I know a lot of people who wait until the last minute to put in for the draw. Thus, this would eliminate a lot of fence sitters and cater more to the serious hunter crowd. Also, I imagine it would only help G&F management practices because at this point harvest surveys are completely voluntary and I know very few hunters that actually take the time to fill them out. How much information are they really getting?

-If you drew a first choice, full price, limited quota license one year then you would have to sit out of next year's draw. For example, I drew an Area 67 Type 1 antelope license in 2014. So, by that thought, my antelope first choice box in 2015 would be blank. I'd still be free to fill in second and third choices and pick up any leftovers. But, I'd definitely be out of the running for 67 for a year which would hopefully pass some luck on to other hunters. It would have no affect on the elk and deer draw unless you also previously drew those. This may be an issue for some folks but not me. After being unsuccessful for so many years, scraping up leftovers has become a common practice.

What are your ideas on improving draw odds? Or, do you think everything should be left completely as-is?

 

[Ikeepitcold]

I like the second. It's similar to what we have in Nv.

 

[hoshour]

The current system is pretty decent, which is why it is crazy to make a major change like going to resident prefernce points.

But, I agree with both ideas.

The first idea is really good. There would need to be some sort of confirmation that your survey was accepted, which would be no problem at all online or by phone, it would just add some mailing cost for those surveys that came in by mail. I'd like to see all states adopt that rule.

 

[libidilatimmy]

I think both idea's would be feasible. I just finished up running the numbers and sending it in with a letter to the Senate Majority Leader for the top 5 most applied for deer tags and I can tell you that the PP system provides worse, far worse, draw odds for people down the road a few years.

 

[mntnguide]

your second choice, is what Idaho does. If you draw a first choice tag for Bull or Bucks, you must wait a year before applying again. I think that definitely increases odds for a random system, also Idaho makes you decide which set of species you want to apply for...If you apply for one of the big 3 (goat,sheep,moose); you cannot apply for a limited draw for elk,deer or antelope...So for those wanting to draw a tag of the big 3 they are out of putting in for tags for the others, and vice versa. Definitely makes drawing odds better for the big 3 as well as for elk deer and antelope.

 

[WapitiBob]

You can take a series of units, remove the wait period applicants, add in new applicants, and see if the odds change. With the limited resident population of WY though, it might work. In the end, you increase or decrease one side of the equation.
I would prefer the states spend more time education their customers so they understood a high demand unit will be unreachable once you draw or if you enter the draw down the road. The notion that a hunter should be able to draw virtually any tag in a state at some point is unrealistic but common.

 

[30Hart]

I think you should lose your points when you get a license, regardless of whether its a 1st, 2nd, or 3rd choice. You draw it...points go to zero. This wouldn't aplly to leftover tags you buy over the counter. Would force some to decide whether to point bank or hunt. Also I'd square the preference points for the Wyoming residents in the 50% preference pool...rewards long time appliers, but still gives the young hunter another chance to get lucky. Lastly, for residents, I'd only let them apply for either a limited quota deer or limited quota elk license, but not both and put a 5 year waiting period on both after you draw. That'll helpout resident odds some. Problem is nothing you guys come up with will satisfy your entire hunter demographic...good luck.

 

[libidilatimmy]

Funny thing is today a bill was introduced, HB208, that would make you wait 5 years to apply for "hard to draw" elk or deer licenses when you draw a tag that had less than 10% draw odds.

 

[ScottR]

Funny thing is today a bill was introduced, HB208, that would make you wait 5 years to apply for "hard to draw" elk or deer licenses when you draw a tag that had less than 10% draw odds.

But what if the odds change?

 

[libidilatimmy]

But what if the odds change?

Great question there. The bill states that "less than 10% the immediate year preceding the draw" or something to that effect and that the GF would produce a list of "hard to draw" areas prior to the application period. The way I interpret it, you wouldn't be disqualified from applying in other areas, just the "hard to draw" areas.

 

[hoshour]

Here's the link, scroll down to to HB208 and click on the word Introduced to the right. It will download a PDF of the bill http://legisweb.state.wy.us/2015/billreference/BillReference.aspx?type=ALL

Here's the section in question: (j) Except as specifically provided under subsection (f) of this section or W.S. 23-1-705(m), no person may apply for and receive more than one (1) resident deer or one (1) resident elk hard to draw license in any consecutive five (5) year period. For purposes of this subsection, "hard to draw" means a license which is limited in quota by hunt area and type and which had a drawing success rate of ten percent (10%) or less in the immediately preceding limited quota random drawing for that particular species. The commission shall, through rules and regulations, specify which resident deer or resident elk licenses are hard to draw before each application period for that particular species. The commission shall maintain records of hard to draw licenses received pursuant to this subsection. Notwithstanding W.S. 23-2-101(e), the commission may charge a nonrefundable fee not to exceed ten dollars ($10.00) for each application for a resident hard to draw license.

 

[HiMtnHnter]

There's no magic pill guys . . . The fact remains that our wildlife resources are finite (some in decline, like moose and mule deer) and no matter which way you slice it there are only limited opportunities available. I don't think there's any way to increase odds of drawing in terms of total opportunity in the long run, no matter the system.

Efforts are best served in conserving and improving wildlife habitats and giving our G&F support enough to do these things.

The grass is always greener on the other side for a lot of people, until you spend some time there . . . Wyoming is still the greatest state anywhere in the lower 48 for a resident hunter.

 

[WY ME]

Wyoming's wildlife is finite but not fixed. Wyoming's deer population is not what it was in 1990 (WG&F screwed that up) nor what it was in the 30 years prior to that. Nowadays there's just too many predators (humans included) taking their slice of deer pie. Reduce our buck deer tag quotas, eliminate all doe tags, reduce the coyote population, control big cat numbers and the deer numbers will rise. We need more animals and the draw odds will improve. It's that simple.

Put it this way... Fence in 100 elk with a nominal but sufficient amount of hay they can eat for one year and you will have 100+ elk the next year. Then double the hay (improved habitat) and add 10 wolves to the pen the following year. One year later you will have zero elk.

I agree that Wyoming is the best place to hunt, that's why I live here, but that doesn't mean that it can't, shouldn't, or hasn't been better than it currently is. I think the WG&F needs a to take a different approach to game management than it has. The status quo doesn't seem to be doing much especially when it comes to deer.

 

[mntnguide]

What about Montana's system...Where residents build PP's and it is just like getting more "tickets" in the draw...A resident with 5 PP will have there points squared, meaning they will have there name entered 20 times into that specific draw..But there is no guarantee of drawing based on how many points you have, you just have a better chance than someone who just started. But anyone can draw from the guy with 0 PP to the person who has been putting in for years. If there is a PP system, I prefer one on this type of scale that enables you to Always have a chance at drawing a special tag, instead of just building points for years waiting.

 

[Fink]

Best way to improve draw odds is to put more animals on the mountain.

 

[Triple BB]

How bout we do like New Mexico and charge more for higher demand tags. The G&F brought up a three year waiting period a few years ago that didn't go anywhere. Would've increased odds in every area, some more than others. I just wrote a bunch of Senate reps letting them know other than drawing some whitetail tags in areas that have leftover tags every year, I've only drawn one limited quota deer license in 30 years. Asked them to support the 50/50 compromise with resident pref points...

 

[meat hunter]

How far along in the process is the bill?

 

[hoshour]

I talked to Guy and he said he didn't think either of the WY bills we've talked about on the forum have a chance. Apparently, the same guy introduces similar bills every year and without Game and Fish backing they just don't go anywhere.

 

[WapitiBob]

I'm guessing Hicks didn't bother to see what happens to easy draw units when you dump 5 years worth of successful applicants in those units.

 

[Triple BB]

I talked to Guy and he said he didn't think either of the WY bills we've talked about on the forum have a chance. Apparently, the same guy introduces similar bills every year and without Game and Fish backing they just don't go anywhere.

How does the G&F back them? In Wyoming its illegal for the G&F to lobby for or against any legislation same as support or oppose. If you go to the G&F meetings, they'll tell you their research shows the majority of residents support preference points. Might be by a small amount, but its still a majority. A number of higher ups I've spoke with at the G&F personally support pref points...