NR special draw for ELK chances...

[carharttcowboy]

The question: What are the odds of drawing for a NR special PP draw, no points this year, general tag for elk? I ask because I keep reading posts on here that say if you pay the higher 'special draw' price you have a 100% chance for a general tag! I looked up the odds from last year and it was only 45% with 0 points (it was 100% with 1 point or more). I paid for a point this time around but from what I have read it is not usable till next year. After hours of examining info on the website, it seemed that unit 55 has a +60% chance for an 'any elk' tag. So... what am I missing?

Long story short, I live in the area but want to take two out-of-state relatives on a wilderness hunt. So, I got a crash course on the hoops a non-resident has to go through. I put in for unit 55 as first choice and general as second choice. Honestly I'd rather them get a general tag as areas 56, 59, and 60 are general areas but the odds seemed to favor unit 55. Did I make a mistake by not going with a general for my first choice for them?

Area 55 seemed to have a lot less hunters and a higher success rate than any unit close to where I live. I know it is grizzly area but like I said I live here, have pack animals, and see no need to spend more than an hour or two getting from my house to the trail head. Bears and wolves are just a fact of life here.

 

[huntabsarokee]

I believe last year it was 100% for the general tag 1st choice with 0 points in the Special. This was AFTER the point draw when they back fill with unsold tags which is why you are seeing just 45%. We drew the general tag last year 2nd choice so all the 1st choice had to draw. From all the forum banter it looks like those odds will drop this year. If so your relatives better hope they draw their 1st choice 55. As for the odds this year we will all know in 3 weeks.
Good luck.

 

[PlainsHunter]

They can still modify their choices today if they need to

 

[WapitiBob]

Special Gen has been 100% with 0 points, 2nd choice was a tick over 50%. 2nd choice should be close to 0% if app trends stay on course.
If you want them to hunt GEN I suggest you change their app to Gen as 1st choice. Change date is the 3rd.

 

[carharttcowboy]

Well, thanks to the advice from this thread my two boys got their general tags, yeah! (I changed the first choice to general) I read on another thread where not all the special draw first choice 'gen' got tags.

I do have another question: I paid for a point with the special draw, did that point help any during this draw? I thought any point paid for in 2016 were not of use till 2017. If that is so... I was stupid to pay the extra $50 x 2 because any points were lost when we got the first pick.

 

[WapitiBob]

Congrats on getting drawn. I get a lot of crap from people by posting what I did above but every once in a while it swings back the other way. Hope your kids have a fun time.


Regarding the point fee, you were simply pre paying for the point in case you didn't draw. They should have already put the $50 back on your card. And yes, special gen was about 39 apps short of 100% this year. I guestimate it will be at least 150 short next year.