Guys in the market?

Yell Co AR Hunter

Very Active Member
Dec 10, 2015
708
460
Yell County Arkansas
For you guys with money in the market. What are your thoughts? Is the hammer going to fall? If so when? Are you moving away from the market?
I just pulled all funds out to a money market. I want to protect the growth. Am I crazy?
 

go_deep

Veteran member
Nov 30, 2014
2,539
1,719
Wyoming
Maybe? Maybe not?
I understand the risk of letting it ride on a down turn that it looks ugly at times, but if you just leave it it'll come back along with the market in time. By leaving mine and actually continuing to add to it over the last year (buying in cheaper) my 5 year rate of return before March was 12.9%+ since then my 5 year is 25.6%+.
If all my funds and stocks go to zero, we as a country have way bigger problems.
If you have enough to retire on today and don't need anymore, I understand protecting it.
 

go_deep

Veteran member
Nov 30, 2014
2,539
1,719
Wyoming
I worked with a guy who retired, then came back to work because he was just bored. This guy had done very, very well for himself. Right after 9/11 he freaked out and pulled all his money out of his mutual funds, over the course of 3 years of just leaving it sit he estimated from the original drop and pulling out, then not getting the ride back up he lost around $500k. He told a group of us one day that if he just would have left it alone he would have been brake even in 16 months and way ahead in 36 months.
 

Yell Co AR Hunter

Very Active Member
Dec 10, 2015
708
460
Yell County Arkansas
Oh I plan to get back in maybe 6 to 12 months. When I say hammer falling. I mean we are not being told just how bad things are. I expect the thing that will start the fall is when corporate commercial property leases are up for renewal. I know the greed of Corporate America. Anyone think now that they know people can work from home. They will get rid of 70% of their lease expense.
 

go_deep

Veteran member
Nov 30, 2014
2,539
1,719
Wyoming
To answer one of your questions. I honestly don't understand how there can't be a crash, a large pull back, at a minimum a down turn. But here in Wyoming house prices continue to soar, vehicle prices continue to soar, and if unemployment numbers don't go through the roof, maybe the markets are set to make a large run??

I definitely think commercial properties have an opportunity to get there a$$kicked in the short term.
 
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buckbull

Veteran member
Jun 20, 2011
1,700
730
Oh I plan to get back in maybe 6 to 12 months. When I say hammer falling. I mean we are not being told just how bad things are. I expect the thing that will start the fall is when corporate commercial property leases are up for renewal. I know the greed of Corporate America. Anyone think now that they know people can work from home. They will get rid of 70% of their lease expense.
Well that and the student loan debt. Folks can't pay the loan if they don't have jobs. Housing market here is nuts too. I guess its the cheap money fueling it.

I'd say if you plan to retire within the next 5 years it might be wise to move to things that are more conservative.
 

mallardsx2

Veteran member
Jul 8, 2015
3,011
1,906
If I was retiring in the next 5 years I would move my money to something safe now. But thats just me.
 

ScottR

Eastmans' Staff / Moderator
Staff member
Feb 3, 2014
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www.eastmans.com
My investments are all about the long term as it stands right now. I will keep it in the market for as long as possible.
 

Colorado Cowboy

Veteran member
Jun 8, 2011
7,406
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80
Dolores, Colorado
When I retired 21 years ago, I changed my whole investment program. I had cancer and was told I had a 10% chance to live 5 years. I took all my cash assets and put them in CD's and Muny Bonds. If there was a problem with stocks and the market became problematic and i lost any of my nest egg, I really couldn't replace it. I have kept it that way with a return of between 3 & 5%. I don't need to take any of the $$$ for my monthly expenses, so it stays there. If something happens to me, my wife has access to plenty of cash almost immediately.
 

rjroberts15

Member
Jun 8, 2016
121
9
CA
I think it really depends if you are talking about individual stocks or funds. And what kind of funds. I certainly wouldn't be all in, in one area.

I focus on how much the fees are per fund for the return for my stuff. Recently, I moved it to a target date fund and won't touch it.

If your portfolio is diversified, i wouldn't worry about it.
 
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buckbull

Veteran member
Jun 20, 2011
1,700
730
I think it really depends if you are talking about individual stocks or funds. And what kind of funds. I certainly wouldn't be all in, in one area.

I focus on how much the fees are per fund for the return for my stuff. Recently, I moved it to a target date fund and won't touch it.

If your portfolio is diversified, i wouldn't worry about it.
I moved mine to a target fund too. Anytime I thought I was smart about the market and made moves I ended up on the short end of the stick. 2045 can't come soon enough lol.
 
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El Serio

Active Member
Feb 1, 2018
258
739
A lot depends on your age and family situation. Remember that market fluctuation is only one type of risk. Bonds/money market are good to protect against market fluctuation, but bad at dealing with inflation.

The question is will we get a market crash, inflation or something else?

I prefer not to put all my eggs in any one basket
 
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tim

Veteran member
Jun 4, 2011
2,159
729
north idaho
Oh I plan to get back in maybe 6 to 12 months.
so you sold it all now at the lower price and are going to buy it all back at the higher price? just making sure i understand, correctly. IF the market crashes, you might be able to do that, but if the market don't crash or just have a minor set back, you will have lost money doing this.
personally i would talk to a pro about this, not a bunch of guys who like to hunt. If this was a sheep forum, sure, but it is not.
 

D_Dubya

Active Member
Aug 8, 2012
374
743
South Texas
I pulled out a bunch of my “fun” money last week; the money I day trade with because it had done pretty well the last couple of weeks and I’ll hold it for a bit. My 401k and other long term investments are just going to go for a ride for the next 25 years managed by people who hopefully are much smarter than me. Historically that’s been the best play.
 

Yell Co AR Hunter

Very Active Member
Dec 10, 2015
708
460
Yell County Arkansas
so you sold it all now at the lower price and are going to buy it all back at the higher price? just making sure i understand, correctly. IF the market crashes, you might be able to do that, but if the market don't crash or just have a minor set back, you will have lost money doing this.
personally i would talk to a pro about this, not a bunch of guys who like to hunt. If this was a sheep forum, sure, but it is not.
No I had about a 32% gain over the last 15 months. I already made the move. I was just wondering what others were doing. I had already made my mind up and was not looking for advice.
 

nv-hunter

Veteran member
Feb 28, 2011
1,456
1,080
Reno
I moved mine around was 95% in high risk ( 2 funds ) and have done really well so split it up to some safer funds and will hope I didn't screw up.

In 2008 I let it ride but I had 24 years till retirement at 12 years things look a little different. I am thinking we'll know in a month or 2 if it will correct or not, heck it might correct tomorrow after the vote today.
 

dan maule

Very Active Member
Jan 3, 2015
799
884
Upper Michigan
I know a couple of guys who sold back in the spring when the market first started pulling back because of Covid thinking it was going lower and they were going to get back in at the bottom. Needless to say they lost a bunch. I don't know what the right answer is looking at the market today, there sure seems to be a lot of downside risk, I am planning on setting up a meeting with my financial advisor soon and get his take on it. Crazy times for sure!
 

Fink

Veteran member
Apr 7, 2011
1,959
190
West Side, MoMo
My wife freaked out back in March, when our retirement accounts lost 30%+ in a couple days, wanted to pull it all out, and do what, I dont know.. I didnt pull it out, just added more, and started throwing every extra penny I had into my funny money account. By the end of the year, retirement accounts and funny money accounts finished strong.
Obviously the returns we saw in 2020 are not sustainable, but there's going to be a vaccine, and the economy is going to get rolling again. there are going to be some setbacks, the housing market will most likely slow down, as foreclosures ramp up, tenant evictions will be coming soon. Commercial real estate is going to get nuked - but corporate profit margins will increase without rental expense on the books.
I'm guessing we have an up and down year, I'm keeping my money in, and will continue to rebalance as necessary. I'd hate to pull my money out, and then promptly miss one of those 5-7% growth days.
 

Jdd2035

Active Member
Sep 12, 2016
180
81
In the past hundred years counting the great depression, the great recession, black monday, popping of the .com bubble, housing bubble, mortgage bubble, etc. Etc. Etc. The stock market has done nothing but climb throughout the bear and bull cycles. Your best bet is to doller cost average in the market. Steady plodding inch by inch.
 
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