Deciphering Montana draw odds

[kesand72]

So I've been looking over Montana antelope draw odds, and to me it seems clear as mud.
For example, in district 300 for 2015 it shows 25 NR tags available, 47 1st choice applicants, a few 2nd n 3rd choice apps, with 17 tags issued and no surplus.
So, what happened to the other 8 tags?
What am I missing?

 

[dble07]

Did it show 25 NR tags or did you just do the math to figure it out? Reason I ask is that I've recently discovered that Montana only gives "up to 10%" to Non residents, not an actual full 10%. Non residents and residents are in the same draw so NR don't always get to their quota before the unit quota is met. So basically NR aren't guaranteed any tags. At least that's how I understand it is for elk and I may very well be wrong about other species

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[ceby7]

Dble07 is right, NR are allotted up to 10% but aren't guaranteed any. Everyone is in the same pool so if only 1 NR is drawn before the quota is met only 1 NR gets a tag.

 

[kesand72]

Kinda tough to figure odds of drawing a nr tag that way....

 

[dble07]

Yes it is. Pretty tough to figure odds with BP squared system anyway. I wish they would just give NR a straight 10% and put us in a separate draw but good luck getting that changed. I looked at a couple popular elk units last year and the NR only ended up with like 5% of the tags.

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[missjordan]

I'd download the excel spreadsheets that give the draw odds success. Probably will give you a really good place to start