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  1. #1
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    Success Rate Stats - How important?

    Does everyone have their pencils sharpened for the upcoming draws?

    How much importance do you place on the success rate for a unit you're interested in?

    I think for me, my mindset is changing. I used to look at those numbers with a lot of interest, but after a few trips out west under my belt, I'm not so sure that the importance I used to place on success rates to guide my unit choice was all that. My goals are simple for the next few years: boots on the ground experience, yearly, as economically I can make a trip, with a chance at some freezer queens.

    How much weight do you place on a unit's reputation for hunter success?

    Regards,

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  2. #2
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    Back when I had to travel long distances and spend a lot of money to go hunting I paid a lot of attention to the numbers but now that I live where I hunt I don't pay any attention to them other than to look at them once in a while to sort of monitor the condition of the local herds.

  3. #3
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    I view most of these stats with a grain (or two!) of salt, as they say. Most states survey hunter success based on reports by hunters. Hard to believe what EVERONE has to say. Lots of bogus data is given, IMHO. One of the only state's data that I know of that I would really believe is California's. All hunters must return their tags. The number crunchers can gather their data first hand and their numbers have a high confidence level for me.

    Here in Colorado, I get a call after the season asking about how I did maybe 2 out of 3 years. How can anyone believe the numbers when all hunters are not surveyed. How about how truthful the hunters are......well I'm not going there!
    Colorado Cowboy
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  5. #4
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    I agree with CC. In a state like Nebraska, the numbers are very good as all hunters are required to check in their game. Of course I'm sure some go unchecked but in general I believe their accuracy for success rates is great. In a state like Wyoming, I wouldn't put any stock in success rates since there is no mandatory check in. Their data relies on the accuracy of the surveys they send out. I have no idea how many surveys they send out but I can tell you there have been many years I didn't receive a survey after having a big game permit- this past season included. That tells me they only survey a percentage of tag holders and then they try to average the numbers. No way that ends up accurate imo.

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  7. #5
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    I just had a little eye opening experience this past October.

    Due to weather issues, I had to unexpectedly access the WY unit I was hunting from the CO side and adjust my hunt plans real-time. Weeks of marking maps and loading up the GPS weren't completely useless, but I sure wished I made some more marks down near where I was coming into the unit. lol I saw a variety of big game animals on the CO side, as well the WY side. Maybe it was dumb luck or a fluke, but I made a mental note of it.

    Fast forward to hunt planning time, and I decided to see what that unit in CO was all about-just in case I don't pull the tag I might want in WY-if that could even be an option to try in CO.

    Armchair research shows that CO unit to have poor stats and a reputation for crowds; while I won't claim my short time on the ground last fall refutes any of it, I liked what I saw and, enough so, that I might go against my prior logic system and try to hunt it if I don't draw in WY.

    Regards,

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    Last edited by Prerylyon; 12-28-2017 at 05:18 PM.

  8. #6
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    This reminds of the saying that 79.8% (or substitute whatever number you want) of statistics are made up on the spot. Seriously though, if a unit has a published success rate of 10%, for 10 guys out of a hundred it's a darn good unit, and for the other 90 guys it's not so good. So I guess my goal is to hunt wherever I like and try and be one of those 10 guys.

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  10. #7
    Eastmans' Staff / Moderator
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    Success rates are low on the totem pole for me...


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  12. #8
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    I think what I'm starting to experience is the value of getting out into the units to see them 1st hand to really figure them out. Its obvious, I guess.

    Its a tough pill for a non-res, and if you're a busy guy, even tougher to break free for a few days or more to scout. Being a 1,000 miles away from a unit can make unit selection tough and we have to start somewhere. Toss in the time lag between draws, and it makes sense we we pour over Fish and Game reports and try to learn as much as we can from each other on the forums.

    All that being said, I got my best data from taking an August fishing/camping trip with my boys; in the unit, and living in it for several days this October during the hunt. I think this will be something we do every year. The cost for the summer trip-other than gas-was not bad and the boys got to experience the Rockies.

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  13. #9
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    The area I hunted in Colorado had a 5% success rate on elk. After 14 days of boots on the ground, I believe it. lol

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    LCH

  15. #10
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    High success rate means high tag allocation to me.

    In Nv I pay more attention to the antler point rather then success. We have to report unit, day of harvest and how many points on each side of animal. The more points the more mature buck, not always but in general. So I look at the area I want to hunt, look at the success rate just to see what it says but then I pay attention to the point averages.
    I go to the Mountains to loose my mind and find my soul.

 

 
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