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  1. #10
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2011
    St. Charles, IL
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    Quote Originally Posted by Umpqua Hunter View Post
    Zim: Yeppers, I did get that off of the member's section. When you start getting up near the 40% draw odds, statistically things change fast:

    Year 1: 4 of 10 people draw = 40% draw odds (6 left)
    Year 2: 4 of the remaining 6 people draw = 66% draw daw odds (2 left)
    Year 3: The last two draw = 100% draw odds

    I suspect there will be more top point holders putting in for the Kaibab tags 2nd choice as the years go by, as they see their odds for 13 drop each year due to more NR's getting the hunter ed point than do draw 13 tags. I wish I had it to do over again as my odds of drawing that IL permit are low, and those results come out prior to the AZ app deadline. I could have saved that AZ tag for when I draw no IL permit. Oh well, at least there will be fewer hunters in the Kaibab this fall, and apparently they are having a very wet spring.
    Last edited by Zim; 06-19-2011 at 02:15 PM.



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