The recent discussions of point creep for trophy species in Wyoming made me start thinking about Colorado on the eve of the application deadline. I compiled the data of preference point holders by year from the Colorado Parks and Wildlife website. Looking at the numbers on the table make me feel discouraged. In ten years the number of applicants with PP has more than doubled and the highest point holders go from 2 Weighted to 12 Weighted. One thing I dont understand about the data is why there are SO many point holders hovering around 3 every year...
I compiled the same data for Bighorn Sheep. I would be happy to post the info if anyone is interested.
"Elk don't know how many feet a horse has!"
I would like to see what you have for moose, however for 2014, points are 3-13 and not 3-12.
A couple things I would suggest. First, run a subtotal for only people who are in the weighted pool, because effectively they are the only ones in the draw. Those who have 3 years or less in the system have no effect on the drawing.
Also when I use the term "point creep" it is usually in reference to a preference type system or preference type variation (like Utah has) to the draw. The "creep" is how the points required to be in the tag draw pool goes up each year. "Point creep" in the way I have usually used it has to do with not being able to draw (or having extremely low odds like in UT) because you can't catch the main draw pool because the draw pool keeps going up each year.
What I find interesting from your spreadsheet is how many people apparently "give up" with only 1 or 2 weighted points. Look at the "1 weighted point" level it has not had more than 123 applicants, despite there being 448 to 668 applicants in the "0 weighted point level"
Here is a specific example of how applicants dropped out:
2010: 719 applicants (3 regular points)
2011: 668 of that pool applied (0 weighted)
2012: 123 of that pool applied (1 weighted)
It happens repeatedly, here is another:
2010: 807 applicants (3 regular points)
2011: 656 of that pool applied (0 weighted)
2012: 121 of that pool applied (1 weighted)
I'm referencing your data in the spreadsheet and haven't verified it. If the data is good, it means that the vast majority of applicants that start out, give up around the 4th or 5th year.
A question for others, is there actually a "0 weighted points" level? I'm not sure on that one. Do you start at 0 weighted points or 1 weighted point in your 4th year applying?
Last edited by Umpqua Hunter; 04-01-2014 at 09:40 AM.
As I understand it, and have current records of, first year you have 0 points. So your fourth time applying you have 3 and 0 weighted so you are in the drawing because they divide by your weighted points plus one. I helped a kid this year get his bull who drew with 3 and 0 weighted so it can be done.
That still doesn't help make sense of those low point holder stats though.
Good stuff. The resourcefulness and willingness to share data on this site never ceases to amaze me. When you first start applying for sheep/moose out west and you look at the simple draw odds it seems just a matter of time before you draw. After a while you realize drawing a lesser "non trophy" unit is possible but still extremely difficult but it still takes a lot of research and good luck. The highly sought "trophy" units are truly powerball lotto odds. It kind of crushes your hopes but I would rather know where I stand. Could you post the BG sheep data as well? Thanks.