Those draw odds are incorrect. Last year there were 40 non-resident tags and from what I can tell, all only a small number of them were issued to applicants with max points.
The draw odds for Arizona elk and antelope listed in MRS are highly misleading. They do not take into account that the vast majority of non-resident elk tags are issued to the max point holders in a given unit. It also does not take into account the weighting of bonus points for those with less than max points. The reason for this is non-residents can only draw 10% of the tags, but 20% of all of the tags are first issued to the applicants with the most points. In high demand units, all of the non-resident tags are issued to max point holders with NO tags entering the random draw. In those cases the draw odds for those with less than max points is "0%". What I particularly don't like about stating incorrect draw odds in a widely publicized magazine is that it creates the impression with many applicants that a tag can actually be drawn, and people spend their money with that assumption.
The good news is that this year there will be 50 non-resident tags issued compared to 40 last year, so likely there will likely be a few more non resident tags that slip through into the random draw. More good news is I believe you have actually picked an elk hunt where you can draw with less than max points.
With the limited data Arizona provides about non-resident applications, it is nearly impossible to create accurate draw statistics.
Wapitibob understands the Arizona draw better than I so I hope he chimes in.