MRS draw odds ?
Could someone give me some insight on the draw odds for units in New Mexico. This is one example that I will look at unit 16a hunt 2-234 (1st archery season). In the MRS section for the 2012 season the odds shown are for res. 78% non res 16% non res with guide 94%. But when I look at the game and fish numbers it looks alot different. There are 150 tags with 10% going to non res guided thats 15 tags 8% going to non res 12tags and 123 tags for res. for resident there is 510 hunters applying for the 123 tags about 25% will draw. for non res there are 12 tags with 172 hunters applying that is about 7% odds of drawing. Then for non res guided there are 113 hunters applying for 15 tags about a 14% chance at drawing. Could some one explain to me how this works and why my numbers are so different than the MRS section in the magazine.
I think Eastmans just calculates 1st choice.
So you back out the 2nd and 3rd choice applicants and I believe that is why the numbers are different (higher). Your calculation are more accurate as to what odds your looking at.
Looking at 1st choice only, gives higher odds than you have and looking at all 3 choices will show you lower odds. There is no way to get "true odds" for NM. If you look at the complete odds report it will show how many drew on 2nd and 3rd choice but the odds move dynamically with every applicant ahead of you because they look at all 3 choices before moving on. I use all 3 choices for a "worst case" odds scenario when looking at NM.
for 16A 1st archery
there were 9 NR tags (6% not 8%), 172 apps
there were 15 tags NR Outfitter, 113 apps
Not real encouraging no matter how you look at it.
Wapiti is right on, the best way is to add all applicants (1st, 2nd and 3rd choices) and divide by the number of tags. This will be close.
You will will want to apply for a first, second and third choice. Add the draw odds for each of your three choices to get an idea of your overall draw odds. For example: First choice - 2%, Second choice - 3%, Third choice - 5%, your total chance to draw would be about 10%. That is the closest way to approximate your draw odds.
If i understand the system right once your application is pulled if your first and second choice are gone you will get your third choice over someone else thet has that same hunt listed as there first choice.
Correct, NM looks at all 3 of your choices before moving to the next app in line.